Analysis on the balance of supply and demand of soybean market in China (2)

Introduction: Tang Yanli, information center analysis Office of the Ministry of agriculture (4) China's soybean export potential China's soybean export volume is not large, generally around 200000 tons, 1-9, 2001 In June, China exported 169000 tons of soybeans, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year 73% of exported soybeans are from Heilongjiang, 12% from Jilin and 9% from Liaoning 66% of them are exported to Japan, 20% to South Korea and 5% to Vietnam At present, compared with American soybeans, China's soybeans are non transgenic products with high protein content, although the production cost is higher and the oil yield is lower At present, people's understanding of genetically modified organisms and non genetically modified organisms is not very clear European countries refuse to accept genetically modified products With people's pursuit of natural food and understanding of the nutritional and medical value of soybeans, the status of non genetically modified soybeans in China will inevitably improve, its edible value will inevitably increase, and its export has great potential 3、 The total demand for soybeans has increased steadily The domestic demand for soybeans mainly includes squeezing, edible, various processing, seed use, etc In recent years, the reasons for the rapid increase of soybean demand have been mentioned in the import and export part Generally speaking, there are the following factors: 1 In the early 1990s, the rapid development of animal husbandry increased the demand for soybean meal; 2 The reduction of soybean oil and soybean meal imports LED to the development of domestic oil pressing industry and increased the demand for soybean 3 After the opening of oil market in 1993, the domestic edible oil supply was insufficient, and people's consumption of soybean oil increased rapidly, which stimulated the development of soybean oil extraction industry, resulting in the increase of soybean oil consumption 4 The consumption of soybean processed food and dairy products increased, especially the "outline of food structure reform and development" and "student milk drinking plan" issued by the State Council To promote the increase of soybean consumption by 5%, the rapid increase of soybean deep processing, such as health products and drugs, basically 2 / 3 of the total consumption of soybean is used for squeezing Therefore, the main factor affecting the demand of soybean is the market demand for soybean meal and soybean oil In the late 1990s, the development of animal husbandry in our country was wandering In 1998, it was once at a low point The lack of demand for soybean meal resulted in poor domestic sales and increased inventory pressure The triple pressure of high storage of soybean meal, large import and smuggling of soybean oil led to the serious shortage of many domestic oil processing enterprises, which reduced the amount of soybean pressing and restrained the demand for domestic soybean However, due to the fact that the price of soybean in the international market is much lower than that in the domestic market, driven by the interests, the import volume of soybean is still increasing continuously, which eventually leads to the situation that the supply of domestic soybean market exceeds the demand In 1999 / 2000, China's total consumption of soybeans reached about 24.02 million tons, of which 16.25 million tons were needed for oil extraction, 6.25 million tons for edible and various processing, and about 1.5 million tons for export, seed and consumption While domestic soybeans can only meet about 60%, and nearly 40% of them need to be made up by imports and inventories According to the analysis of the balance sheet, China's total soybean consumption will increase to 27.37 million tons in 2000 / 2001, an increase of 14% In addition, there is a new development direction of soybean consumption In recent years, there are more and more reports on the nutritional value of soybean The deep processing of nutritional health products with soybean as raw material has been highly valued in the world Soybean is an important source of high-quality protein without cholesterol It contains 7 kinds of essential amino acids which can not be synthesized by human body and must be taken from food In particular, the isoflavones and Saponins Extracted from soybeans have special medicinal effects on human anti-cancer, treatment of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, enhancement of human immunity, etc.; American researchers found that eating more soybeans helps to improve the level of human beneficial cholesterol (HDL, i.e high-density lipoprotein) and reduce the level of low-density lipoprotein (LDL, i.e harmful cholesterol) The incidence rate of cardiovascular disease is reduced With the deepening of people's understanding of soybean value, China's soybean market development has great potential 4、 At present, China's soybean market shows a pattern of total supply exceeding demand There are obvious regional differences in the imbalance of supply and demand, that is to say, the contradiction between supply and demand of the main production provinces is prominent, while the main market depends on imports As has been analyzed before, due to the preference of southern oil plants for imported soybeans, Heilongjiang, the main northeastern province, is slow to sell soybeans, which has a great inventory pressure and makes it difficult for farmers to sell soybeans From November 1996 to the end of 1998, the soybean stock in Heilongjiang province increased by 84%, the storage capacity has been overloaded, the cost and management of soybean are more difficult, and the risk of mildew is also increased In 1999, China's soybean production decreased At the beginning of 2000, the supply of soybean market was relatively insufficient In the first half of 2000, the state sold part of the Northeast soybean stock, which temporarily eased the inventory pressure However, in the second half of 2000, the imported soybean arrived in a centralized way, and the annual import exceeded 10 million tons, resulting in the overstock of imported soybean In 2001, the import of soybean continued to increase, estimated 2000 / 2001 Annual soybean stocks will reach a record high.