Analysis on the balance of supply and demand of soybean market in China (1)

Introduction: Tang Yanli, Analysis Office of information center of the Ministry of agriculture I soybean production and development in China (I) the characteristics of soybean production and development in the past 50 years since the establishment of the country are as follows: After 1995, China's soybean production again entered a state of stagnation In 1995 and 1996, the sown area and yield of soybean decreased for two consecutive years Although the sown area of soybean recovered to 8.5 million hectares in 1998, the soybean production was only 15.15 million tons affected by flood disaster In 1999, the sown area of soybean was reduced to 7.96 million hectares again At the same time, affected by the natural disasters, the soybean yield decreased significantly again, to 14.25 million tons In 2000, under the influence of macro-control policies, the sown area of soybean in China expanded to 9.307 million hectares, an increase of 16.9% over 1999 However, affected by drought, the per unit yield decreased to 1656 kg / ha, with a total yield of 15.41 million tons, an increase of 8.1% over 1999 The slow growth of soybean yield in China is one of the main factors restricting the development of soybean From the per hectare yield of soybean, it was 611 kg in 1949, and reached 1789 kg in 1999, an increase of 193% But at the same time, rice increased by 235%, wheat by 515% and corn by 414% Obviously, soybean yield is the slowest growth rate It can be seen from the above table that the average yield of soybean per hectare (1997-1999) in China is 1779 kg, which is the lowest per unit yield of grain crops The yield of corn per hectare is 4867 kg, and the ratio of unit yield is 1:2.74 Considering that planting soybean can save labor and cost compared with planting corn, it is reasonable to keep the price ratio of corn to soybean above 1:2.5 in order to basically achieve the goal of equal land and equal income In March 2000, the ratio of corn to soybean in the main production area was 1:2.63, while in March 2001, the ratio of corn to soybean in the main production area decreased to 1:1.87 According to the soybean production level and production cost in China, the soybean price was significantly lower In the international market, the price ratio of corn to soybean is 1:2.35 Therefore, the low yield per unit area of soybean is the main factor restricting the development of soybean From the current soybean yield level, China's soybean production has no advantage, which is the inevitable factor leading to a large number of imported soybeans （2） In 2001, soybean planting area and yield decreased Affected by the decrease of soybean planting income and drought weather, soybean planting area will be reduced to 8.89 million ha, 4.5% lower than that in 2000 There are two main reasons for the decrease of soybean sown area in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, one is the change of the price ratio between soybean and corn and cotton, the other is the influence of dry weather As the government continues to actively implement the "soybean corn rotation plan", Jilin Province provides subsidies to farmers and purchasing enterprises Therefore, the soybean planting area in the province has been stable this year Based on the investigation of agricultural sown area and meteorological conditions in the main soybean producing areas in China, it is estimated that the average yield per hectare of soybean in 2001 will be 1721 kg / ha, an increase of 4% over 2000 It is predicted that the soybean output in 2001 will be reduced by about 100000 tons, to 15.3 million tons 2、 China's soybean import and export (I) China's soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil import and export history and current situation Soybean has been China's traditional export earning products, and China has been a net exporter of soybean and soybean meal for a long time, but this pattern has changed fundamentally in 1996, and China has changed from a net exporter of soybean and soybean meal to a net importer Moreover, soybean imports increased year by year and exports decreased year by year In 1995, China's soybean import volume was only 300000 tons From 1996 to 2000, the import volume was 111, 279, 319, 432, and 10.42 million tons in turn In just five years, China has become the largest soybean import country in the world In 2000, China's soybean imports accounted for about 3 / 4 of China's output From January to September 2001, 11.17 million tons of soybeans have been imported into China, an increase of 38% over the same period last year. China's soybean import source countries are mainly the United States, Argentina and Brazil China's soybean imports by country unit: 10000 tons, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, January September, 2001, total: 30111, 289, 320, 432, 1042, 1117, USA 15 86 237 175 244 541 451 Argentina 9 12 0 39 96 278 401 Brazil 1 5 44 94 86 212 262 The import and export of soybean meal in China has a regulatory trade policy Since 1995, in order to protect the development of domestic breeding industry and ensure the supply of feed, China has implemented the value-added tax exemption policy for imported soybean meal for three consecutive years, and the import volume of soybean meal in China has also increased rapidly From 1996 to 1998, the import volume of soybean meal in China has increased from 11000 tons in 1995 to 188, 347 and 3730000 tons in turn In 1998, 30% of the imported soybean meal in China came from Brazil, 23% From India, 23% from the United States and 20% from Argentina However, after the increase of VAT on soybean meal import in March 1999, the soybean meal import volume decreased sharply, but it was still a net importer From January to September 2001, China imported 33000 tons of soybean meal, 50% of which came from India and 44% from Argentina; exported 103000 tons, 84% to Japan, 6% to North Korea, 5% to Indonesia and 3% to South Korea China changed from a net soybean meal importer to a net exporter China has always been a net soybean oil importer, 1993 After the opening of oil market in, the domestic oil supply was insufficient, the price rose sharply, and the import soybean increased rapidly From 1994 to 1997, China's soybean oil import increased from 76000 tons in 1993 to over 1 million tons However, two problems can be found in the investigation of domestic soybean oil price and soybean oil import and export trade mode since 1995, i.e price plummeted, import of general trade mode decreased and import of processing trade mode increased, which fully shows the existence of smuggling import According to the estimation, the actual soybean oil import may follow the dotted line in the figure After the state crackdown on smuggling in the second half of 1998, soybean oil imports decreased significantly In 1998, 48% of China's soybean oil imports came from the United States, 24% from Argentina and 19% from Brazil From January to September 2001, China imported 53000 tons of soybean oil, 73% of which came from Argentina and 20% from the United States In addition, from the three charts of soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil, it can be seen that the import and export volume of soybean, soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small in 1993, which was mainly due to the impact of national policies In 1993, China expanded soybean planting, with the planting area and output reaching 9.45 million hectares and 15.31 million tons respectively, an increase of 31% and 49% over the previous year The domestic supply is relatively sufficient, so the import and export volume is reduced to meet the domestic demand If the import of soybean meal and oil in recent years is converted into soybean import, the soybean import will always be very high （2） An analysis of the reasons for the strong increase of soybean import in China Transportation bottleneck is another important factor that makes northeast soybean lose price advantage, import soybean occupy domestic market and Northeast soybean overstock 4 In addition, there are quality, standardization and trading methods First, soybean demand is growing strongly On the one hand, since the 1990s, the rapid development of animal husbandry has led to a huge demand for soybean meal On the other hand, 1993 has been mentioned before After the opening of oil market in, the supply of domestic edible oil was insufficient, and people's consumption structure changed greatly Technological progress made soybean oil, which was originally consumed only in the north, become a widely used edible oil for urban and rural people The increase of consumption stimulated the development of soybean oil pressing industry The expansion of new oil plants led to the expansion of crushing capacity, the increase of soybean demand and the import of soybean make preparation In 1995 and 1996, China's soybean production was reduced for two consecutive years, and the domestic supply was insufficient The state adjusted its import and export policies in time to increase imports and reduce exports In 1996, China changed from a net soybean exporter to a net soybean importer for the first time The second is policy and trade factors As mentioned earlier, soybean meal was exempted from value-added tax from 1996 to 1998 However, because the market price of domestic soybean meal was higher than that of international market, a large number of low-cost imported soybean meal damaged the interests of domestic soybean processing enterprises In March 1999, the State Administration of Taxation issued a document to impose 13% value-added tax on imported soybean meal, so as to encourage the import of soybean raw materials and reduce the import of soybean meal In 1999, 3.16 million tons of soybean meal were imported less than that in 1998 If the proportion is calculated as 80%, 3.95 million tons of soybean would be needed to press The crackdown on smuggling in 1998 reduced the import of soybean oil in 1998 by 400000 tons compared with that in 1997 If the oil output rate is calculated at 18%, 2.22 million tons of soybean will be needed to crush The sharp decrease of soybean meal and oil imports led to the rapid growth of soybean imports in 1999 and 2000 Thirdly, the inconvenience of transportation reduces the competitiveness of soybean in Northeast China Because the new large-scale oil extraction plants are generally concentrated in the coastal areas of South China, the production scale is relatively large, and the daily processing capacity is generally more than 1200 tons, some of which can reach 5000 tons Because of the large throughput, there are special requirements for the transportation problems The general railway and road transportation is not only expensive and costly, but also can not guarantee the production requirements of enterprises Even if the Northeast soybean is transported to Dalian by railway and transported to the south by sea, there are still many difficulties Because most of our country's coastal bulk carriers are below 10000 tons, which is far from the same level as the tonnage of ocean freighters Although the price of domestic soybeans is lower than that of imported soybeans, due to transportation problems, quality and standardization problems, it is not as profitable as using imported soybeans Therefore, processing enterprises tend to focus on imported soybeans, thus forming the pattern of Northeast soybean overstock and import surge In addition, the transaction mode of imported soybeans and domestic soybeans is also different Generally, the imported soybeans manufacturers can choose the L / C transaction mode The cost of capital is relatively lower However, the domestic trade often encounters the commercial reputation problem of both parties The triangle debt dispute and arbitration as well as various non transaction costs are much greater than the import business Therefore, even under the same price conditions, southern manufacturers still have reason to prefer to buy imported soybeans BE3