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The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released an analysis of China's agricultural supply and demand situation in October, which this month expects corn imports in 2021/22 to be raised by 2 million tons from the previous month, and 500,000 tons
of sugar imports in 2021/22.
Corn: This month, the 2021/22 corn market year ends with an estimated annual corn import of 22 million mt, up 2 million mt
from the previous month.
The annual average wholesale price of corn in domestic producing areas is 2,641 yuan per ton, which is basically the same
as the previous year.
The average annual price of imported corn after landed tax was 2,876 yuan per ton, up 19.
6%
from the previous year.
Based on the survey and scheduling, the sown area of maize in China in 2022/23 will be increased by 426 thousand hectares (6.
39 million mu) to 42,950 thousand hectares (644 million mu) this month, and the output will be increased by 2.
75 million tons to 275.
31 million tons, and other forecasts are consistent
with the previous month.
Most of the main corn producing areas in the country have normal light and temperature, which is conducive to the formation of corn yield and harvest and drying
.
With the improvement of pig breeding profits, feed demand has rebounded, corn feed consumption has increased steadily, and industrial consumption has remained stable
.
Soybeans: This month, the 2021/22 soybean market year ended, and soybean production, consumption and trade remained unchanged
from the previous month.
The average wholesale price of domestic soybeans in sales areas was 6,472 yuan per ton, up 8.
7% from the previous year, and the average price of imported soybeans after CIF was 4,940 yuan per ton, up 14.
5% from the previous year, both slightly higher than the upper limit
of the forecast.
China's soybean production, consumption, trade and prices for 2022/23 this month remain unchanged
from the previous month.
Domestically, as of early October, the national soybean harvest progress exceeded 60%.
Since the sowing of soybeans, the meteorological conditions in most parts of the producing area are generally conducive to the growth and development of soybeans and the formation of yields, although there is more precipitation and soil waterlogging in some areas of northeast China, and high temperature and little rainfall in some areas of north China and Huanghuai, but the impact on the formation of soybean yield is limited, and the yield of soybeans still maintains the forecast
of the previous month.
Internationally, the North American soybean harvest progress exceeded market expectations, South American soybean production growth expectations are still strong, and the global soybean supply is sufficient
overall.
Cotton: This month, China's cotton imports in 2021/22 were cut by 20,000 mt to 1.
73 million mt, and cotton ending stocks were cut to 7.
13 million mt
, according to customs statistics.
This month's forecast, cotton production, consumption and imports for the new year remain unchanged
from the previous month's forecast.
The national cotton has entered the centralized harvesting period, and the picking progress is slower
than in previous years.
As of October 8, the national new cotton picking progress was 16.
0%, down 1.
2 percentage points
year-on-year.
Edible vegetable oil: At the end of the 2021/22 market year this month, China's edible vegetable oil production fell by 40,000 tons from the previous month's estimate to 27.
48 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in imports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds; Imports fell by 460,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimate to 5.
47 million mt, mainly due to weaker-than-expected imports of palm, soybean and peanut oils.
Consumption was revised down by 0.
5 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate to 35.
84 million mt, mainly due to lower
demand for feed oil.
This month's forecast shows that China's edible vegetable oil production in 2022/23 will be 29.
25 million tons, imports 8.
43 million tons, and consumption will be 36.
34 million tons, maintaining the previous
month's forecast.
Recently, winter rapeseed in the main producing areas has entered the sowing stage, and the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively small, and the impact on the sowing of rapeseed seedlings needs to be continuously tracked and paid attention
to.
Sugar: China's sugar imports for 2021/22 were revised up by 500,000 mt this month, with no other
estimates adjusted.
China's sugar production and sales in 2021/22 ended, and by the end of September, the country's cumulative sugar production was 9.
56 million tons, down 1.
11 million tons from the previous year; Cumulative sugar sales were 8.
67 million tons, a decrease of 950,000 tons over the previous year; The cumulative sugar sales rate was 90.
7%, 0.
5 percentage points
faster than the previous year.
The annual average price of sugar was 5,706 yuan per ton, within the forecast range, up 328 yuan per ton or 6.
1% over the previous year; The annual average price of raw sugar is 18.
9 cents per pound, up 2.
3 cents, or 13.
9%,
from the previous year, within the forecast range.
No adjustments
will be made to China's sugar supply and demand in 2022/23 this month.
On September 17, the first sugar mill in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was started, and as of October 8, a total of 15 sugar mills in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were up for production
.
In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of
the new crown pneumonia epidemic, extreme weather and international sugar prices.
;
; The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released an analysis of China's agricultural supply and demand situation in October, which this month expects corn imports in 2021/22 to be raised by 2 million tons from the previous month, and 500,000 tons
of sugar imports in 2021/22.
Corn: This month, the 2021/22 corn market year ends with an estimated annual corn import of 22 million mt, up 2 million mt
from the previous month.
The annual average wholesale price of corn in domestic producing areas is 2,641 yuan per ton, which is basically the same
as the previous year.
The average annual price of imported corn after landed tax was 2,876 yuan per ton, up 19.
6%
from the previous year.
Based on the survey and scheduling, the sown area of maize in China in 2022/23 will be increased by 426 thousand hectares (6.
39 million mu) to 42,950 thousand hectares (644 million mu) this month, and the output will be increased by 2.
75 million tons to 275.
31 million tons, and other forecasts are consistent
with the previous month.
Most of the main corn producing areas in the country have normal light and temperature, which is conducive to the formation of corn yield and harvest and drying
.
With the improvement of pig breeding profits, feed demand has rebounded, corn feed consumption has increased steadily, and industrial consumption has remained stable
.
Corn:
Soybeans: This month, the 2021/22 soybean market year ended, and soybean production, consumption and trade remained unchanged
from the previous month.
The average wholesale price of domestic soybeans in sales areas was 6,472 yuan per ton, up 8.
7% from the previous year, and the average price of imported soybeans after CIF was 4,940 yuan per ton, up 14.
5% from the previous year, both slightly higher than the upper limit
of the forecast.
China's soybean production, consumption, trade and prices for 2022/23 this month remain unchanged
from the previous month.
Domestically, as of early October, the national soybean harvest progress exceeded 60%.
Since the sowing of soybeans, the meteorological conditions in most parts of the producing area are generally conducive to the growth and development of soybeans and the formation of yields, although there is more precipitation and soil waterlogging in some areas of northeast China, and high temperature and little rainfall in some areas of north China and Huanghuai, but the impact on the formation of soybean yield is limited, and the yield of soybeans still maintains the forecast
of the previous month.
Internationally, the North American soybean harvest progress exceeded market expectations, South American soybean production growth expectations are still strong, and the global soybean supply is sufficient
overall.
Cotton: This month, China's cotton imports in 2021/22 were cut by 20,000 mt to 1.
73 million mt, and cotton ending stocks were cut to 7.
13 million mt
, according to customs statistics.
This month's forecast, cotton production, consumption and imports for the new year remain unchanged
from the previous month's forecast.
The national cotton has entered the centralized harvesting period, and the picking progress is slower
than in previous years.
As of October 8, the national new cotton picking progress was 16.
0%, down 1.
2 percentage points
year-on-year.
Edible vegetable oil: At the end of the 2021/22 market year this month, China's edible vegetable oil production fell by 40,000 tons from the previous month's estimate to 27.
48 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in imports of rapeseed and sunflower seeds; Imports fell by 460,000 tonnes from the previous month's estimate to 5.
47 million mt, mainly due to weaker-than-expected imports of palm, soybean and peanut oils.
Consumption was revised down by 0.
5 million tonnes from the previous month's estimate to 35.
84 million mt, mainly due to lower
demand for feed oil.
This month's forecast shows that China's edible vegetable oil production in 2022/23 will be 29.
25 million tons, imports 8.
43 million tons, and consumption will be 36.
34 million tons, maintaining the previous
month's forecast.
Recently, winter rapeseed in the main producing areas has entered the sowing stage, and the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively small, and the impact on the sowing of rapeseed seedlings needs to be continuously tracked and paid attention
to.
Sugar: China's sugar imports for 2021/22 were revised up by 500,000 mt this month, with no other
estimates adjusted.
China's sugar production and sales in 2021/22 ended, and by the end of September, the country's cumulative sugar production was 9.
56 million tons, down 1.
11 million tons from the previous year; Cumulative sugar sales were 8.
67 million tons, a decrease of 950,000 tons over the previous year; The cumulative sugar sales rate was 90.
7%, 0.
5 percentage points
faster than the previous year.
The annual average price of sugar was 5,706 yuan per ton, within the forecast range, up 328 yuan per ton or 6.
1% over the previous year; The annual average price of raw sugar is 18.
9 cents per pound, up 2.
3 cents, or 13.
9%,
from the previous year, within the forecast range.
No adjustments
will be made to China's sugar supply and demand in 2022/23 this month.
On September 17, the first sugar mill in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was started, and as of October 8, a total of 15 sugar mills in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region were up for production
.
In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of
the new crown pneumonia epidemic, extreme weather and international sugar prices.