Analysis of the recent trend of fish oil and fish meal prices

OA show ('918 '); the results of overfishing in Peru in March, together with the unexpected output of Scandinavian countries in February and March, make the production of fish oil and fish meal far exceed the level of the same period last year The increasing export supply means that it is more competitive for soybean meal In Peru, the arrest ban, which began on 24 December 1999, was lifted by 8 March 2000 In the week before March 12, 410000 tons of fish were caught, and 95000 tons on March 13 According to this calculation, the fishing volume in the whole March will exceed 1 million tons, an increase of 370000 tons over the same period last year The increase of fishing volume makes the production of fish meal increase correspondingly, and the price of Peruvian fish meal is under pressure at the price of 340 US dollars / ton FOB recently Peru is currently facing a surplus of fish oil It is said that some producers will soon run out of fish oil storage capacity and sell it on the international market at a low price of 140-150 USD / ton On the whole, the fish resources along the coast of Peru have been recovered, and this year's fishing volume will exceed last year's level This year's catch is expected to reach 8.8 million tons, up from 8.3 million last year But the government's policy is unclear, and some observers believe overfishing since March 8 will be restricted by the government Chile's fish meal production is higher than expected The output in January and February 2000 was maintained at around 240000 tons, the highest in three years, compared with 192000 tons in the same period in 1999 In Scandinavian countries, fish meal production soared to 130000 tons in February, reaching 200000 tons in January and February, an increase of about a third over the same period last year The increase was mainly in Ireland, where fish meal production surged to 75000 tons in February Compared with soybean meal, fish meal has a competitive advantage in price, and its import demand is increasing China, other Asian countries and Europe are buying more and more China is the largest buyer of Peru's fish meal From January to February 2000, Peru exported 210000 tons of fish meal to China, more than 92000 tons in the same period last year If the current buying momentum continues, China's fish meal import from Peru will increase by 300000 tons in 1999 / 2000 (October / September) compared with 579000 tons in the previous year Table 1 price: fish meal, 64 / 65%, Hamburg CIF unit: US $/ ton 2000 1999 1998 1997 1997 61 4165000 703 576 6492 409 454 699 558 6413 40662 554 6164 348 684 547 5835 337 685 548 5646 345675 558 5637 355680 581 5478 371 670 621 5399 382 681 637 56610 399 662 658 58111 401 601 716 600 December 412 541 721 5831 December 393 662 606 5861 February 413 477 701 567 645 Table 2 Export statistics of fish meal of five major countries unit: thousand tons 1999 1998 19951 188 148 272 188 2802 February 175 81 295 260 3953 209 167 400 392 3714 278 163 333 254 2685 350 113 318 289 3076 297 159 408 378 4637 323 175 356 336 4198 249 169 278 294 3119 174 170 206 214 261 October 130 140 198 235 179 November 219 114 156 225 18312 235 226 249 275 3131-12 2828 1826 3469 3340 3748 China feed industry information network qmq (author:)