Analysis of the recent market situation of corn in China

Introduction: in recent years, the domestic corn market has shown an upward trend According to the statistical data of the national grain and oil information center, the grain purchase and sale enterprises in northeast Jilin Changchun region have generally increased the corn ex warehouse quotation, which is about 950-970 yuan / ton, up 5-10 yuan / ton compared with the first ten days of March, and the number of corn transactions has increased compared with the first ten days The purchase price of corn in northern Hebei (Chengde) of Central Plains is 44-45 yuan / 50kg (880-900 yuan / ton), which is about 1 yuan / 50kg higher than that in the first ten days, and the water content is about 15% - 17% The purchase price of corn in southern Shandong (Heze) is 45-46 yuan / 50kg (900-920 yuan / ton), which is about 1 yuan / 50kg higher than that in the first ten days, and the water content is about 14% - 15% The delivery price of new corn station in Fuzhou area of Southern Fujian is about 1140-1150 yuan / ton (15%), which is basically the same as that in the first ten days, and the price of old corn is about 1170-1180 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that in the first ten days The price of Shandong new corn platform in the central area of Jiangxi Province (Nanchang) rose to 1120-1130 yuan / ton, and the water content was within 14.5%, about 50-60 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days The price of corn in Guilin in the north of Guangxi is about 1150-1160 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that in the first ten days The price of corn in Nanning is about 1160-1180 yuan / ton, which is about 10 yuan / ton higher than that in the first ten days The supply of corn in the southern port is stable and the price is basically stable The price of corn in Guangzhou port is mainly 1120-1130 yuan, which is basically the same as that in the first ten days In this regard, the domestic corn market price has a trend of overall rise Recently, the Chinese government will issue corn quotas The distribution of quotas is good for the corn market, not bad The specific analysis is as follows: the distribution of import quotas after China's accession to the WTO will not have a great impact on the market expectations In order to meet the challenge of entering WTO and make the development of China's corn industry step by step in line with the international market, all aspects of China's corn market have taken positive measures, such as the positive stock pressing, new storage and new grain, old grain auction and so on The seller and buyer in the early market also seem to be terrified of entering WTO Both the seller and the buyer fall into WTO Expected to be extremely bearish atmosphere, the market trading performance is flat, corn prices also remain calm in the bilateral standoff According to the relevant provisions of China's accession to the world trade organization, China's import quota in the first year of accession to the WTO is 5.85 million tons Relevant experts have pointed out more than once that the amount of tariff quota promised is only a theoretical market access opportunity, not an actual procurement task that must be fulfilled, or a market share, that is to say, the quota can be used if the market conditions permit It is fully realized and can be over fulfilled On the contrary, it is unnecessary to operate if the conditions are not met But this condition lies in the national conditions Looking at the corn market, China's corn output plays an important role in the world, with an annual output of 100 million tons Although China carried out the corn soybean rotation plan last year, due to the deep influence of the traditional planting concept, the actual reduction range of corn is less, and the output is basically the same as that of last year Then look at the consumption of corn in China In this year (2000 / 01), China's corn inventory at the beginning of the period is 52 million tons, the output in that year is 106 million tons, and the total supply is 158 million tons After subtracting the feed, rations, seeds, exports and consumption in that year, the ending inventory is 40.5 million tons, while the output in this year is estimated to be 106-107 million tons, and the total supply is 14650 tons Therefore, at present, China's inventory Not counting new grain, (00 / 01) inventory is about 40.5 million tons, plus there are about 146 million tons of new grain depots According to the current production and demand in China, the total output plus inventory is larger than the annual demand, and the supply is slightly larger than the demand In terms of quantity, if imported corn is to increase the proportion between supply and demand, it is meaningless for the market demand market In terms of price, since the second half of last year, China's market price has fallen for eight months, and the price level is close to the annual bottom line Compared with the domestic corn price and the imported corn price, the difference between the two is almost the same, and the imported corn does not have the absolute advantage in price On the premise that the profit margin is at a low level, import is of little significance In terms of transportation distance, according to the provisions of bilateral agreements between China and the United States, China will provide 4.5 million tons of import tariff quota for corn in the first year of China's accession to the WTO, and corn import will mainly come from the United States Although most of the grain consuming enterprises in the south of China live in the coastal areas, they have unique geographical advantages and can directly absorb imported corn The transportation distance of domestic corn is better than that of the United States Moreover, the price of products of the same quality is relatively low In recent years, the measures taken by the Ministry of Railways to reduce the freight of freight railway are more conducive to reducing the cost of transportation, and the domestic transportation risk is far lower than that of imported corn, which can be concluded from the situation of international war in recent half a year In the environment where the quantity, price and transportation distance do not have the advantage of completion, the market conditions for corn import are relatively low, and the operability of considering a large number of imports from these aspects is not strong On the other hand, the "201 clause" of the U.S restrictions on steel imports was officially implemented on 20th of this month, which will have a serious impact on the global steel industry, and China's interests are also involved Experts and industry insiders believe that this not only affects China's steel exports to the U.S., but also the potential impact on China's steel market caused by this is not underestimated At present, China maintains one Once the Chinese government adopts the same trade means, the benefits to the domestic corn market can not be ignored At the same time, the genetically modified regulations and rules concerned by the industry are also good for corn, which plays a positive role in effectively regulating the share of imported corn in the domestic market Moreover, the expectation of large-scale import of corn in the later period will not be too strong Recently, the market has been concerned about how the government will issue quotas, but it is expected that even if the quotas are released, the possibility of a substantial increase in corn imports in the short term is extremely weak, so it can be seen that the issuance of quotas in the later period will not put too much pressure on the market In this regard, it is expected in advance that, under the premise of no substantial pressure on the market after the quota is issued and the market price trend is still good, the psychological shadow of both the seller and the buyer after entering the WTO will also be weak, which adds a few points to the success of the rising corn price.