Analysis of the reasons for the strong price of imported soybean

Introduction: 1 The actual market circulation quantity is insufficient: according to the preliminary statistical data of the relevant departments, from the resumption of soybean import in June to August 4, China's ports imported 53 ships of soybeans (4 ships are half ships each), and the total import quantity of soybeans is close to 3 million tons, of which: 6 The number of imported soybeans arriving at China's ports in July was 860000 tons The number of imported soybeans arriving at China's ports in July soared to 1960000 tons Up to now, the total stock of imported soybeans in China's ports is estimated to be about 1 million tons, an increase from the lowest level two months ago, including about 200000 tons in Dalian, about 50000 tons in Tianjin and Qinhuangdao, and about 23000 tons in Shandong ports 10000 tons, about 270000 tons for ports in East China and 250000 tons for ports in South China According to the forecast of Hamburg oil world, China's soybean imports in July and August will reach 2-3 million tons, while the soybean imports in August will be 1-1.5 million tons, while China's estimate is 2.2-2.5 million tons, slightly lower than the overseas forecast Recently, according to the tracking data of soybean arriving at the port, a ship of South American soybeans mixed with Brazil and Argentina arrived at Tianjin port on August 3, with the quantity of 57000 tons, imported by HuiFu grain and oil production and Food Co., Ltd.; a ship at Qingdao port on August 3, imported by Shandong Hualiang grain and Oil Co., Ltd.; a ship of soybeans from Zhanjiang port to Argentina on August 4, with the quantity of 48000 tons T, the import manufacturer is Guixing oil company ZED At this stage, although China's soybean import has recovered and the number of soybean imports continues to increase, the tight soybean supply situation in China has not been alleviated The imported soybeans stored in various ports are mainly imported by oil processing enterprises for their own use For those small and medium-sized processing enterprises in the northern region, the situation is more serious Only soybeans imported by traders for distribution are A small number of them have been ordered by large manufacturers in the south, and the quantity available for distribution is very small Zed 2 The port sales price remains high: it has not declined due to the increase of the number of soybean arriving at the port According to the statistics of the port soybean sales price, the transaction price of Tianjin port is 2360-2400 yuan / ton; that of Qingdao port is 2360-2400 yuan / ton; that of Yantai port is 2360-2400 yuan / ton; that of Rizhao port is 2360-2400 yuan / ton; that of Lianyungang is 2360-2400 yuan/ Tons; the transaction price of Shanghai port is 2360-2400 yuan / ton, and the port price is concentrated in 2360-2400 yuan / ton Because most soybeans are stored by large-scale crushing manufacturers for their own use, the price of imported soybeans keeps rising, mainly due to the high price of international soybeans market in the near future Zed 3 The popularity index of imported soybeans is high: at present, there is a rush to buy port soybeans According to the news from port dalian, a large number of oil processing plants and traders have come to Dalian to negotiate with the holders of soybean warehouse receipts in Dalian to buy soybean warehouse receipts The transaction price of warehouse receipt increased from 2150 yuan / ton last week to 2180 yuan / ton on August 1 The buyer also needs to pay 5% of the departure deposit, and the seller will return it after the warehouse receipt is cancelled and the departure Although the deposit is paid in advance, the number of people who rush to buy is still large The root cause of this phenomenon is that the recent rise in international soybean prices has driven the price rise of domestic soybean and its products, but the rapid rise in international soybean prices has also restrained the import of soybean in China However, 4,5 In June, the import stoppage caused the inventory emptiness, most enterprises are on the verge of stopping production or half stopping production In order to make profits in the peak consumption season, all enterprises are focusing on the imported soybeans, thus the situation of rush purchase is formed Obviously, this situation is just beginning ZED Based on the above, it can be seen from the eagerness of enterprises to purchase imported soybeans that at present, the quantity of imported soybeans is far from meeting the domestic demand In the short term, the international soybean market price is still bullish, and the price of imported soybeans will remain high With the passage of time, the enterprises' psychology of urgent need to replenish the stock will be stronger, and the rush to purchase will also be higher and higher, and the price will also be higher The higher, the higher, the analysis shows that the contradiction between domestic soybean supply and demand is still difficult to eliminate in August, and the market price is expected to remain high ZED