Analysis of the reasons for the stable price of wheat in Shandong Province in the near future

Introduction: after the Spring Festival, although many media disclosed that there was a grain shortage in Shandong Province for three consecutive years, the wheat price in Shandong still showed no sign of rising At the same time, the low price of wheat in Jiangsu and Anhui didn't pull the wheat price down in the province, and the overall situation remained stable According to the monitoring of wheat market in Shandong Province, from February to March after the Spring Festival, the average ex warehouse price of new ordinary durum wheat in the central region (Jinan, Tai'an) has always been between 1080-1100 yuan / ton, the average ex warehouse price in the eastern region (Weifang) has always been between 1100-1120 yuan / ton, and the average ex warehouse price in the western region (Liaocheng, Heze, Jining) has always been between 1080-1100 yuan / ton 1090-1100 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of general white wheat such as Linyi No.3 has always been between 1050-1080 yuan / ton The analysis of the causes of rth 1 Affected by the consumption and price of wheat flour According to the survey, after the Spring Festival, the consumption of wheat flour in Shandong Province is obviously weakened, which is reflected in the reduction of flour processing volume, thus inhibiting the rise of wheat price in Shandong Province At the same time, the price of wheat flour in Shandong Province has been stable after the Spring Festival According to the monitoring, after the Spring Festival, the wholesale price of special flour in the northern region is between 1450-1460 yuan / ton, and the wholesale price of special flour is between 1450-1460 yuan / ton 1380-1400 yuan / ton, 1430-1450 yuan / ton, 1310-1320 yuan / ton in the southern region, which also led to the stable price of wheat in the province Rth 2 Restricted by acquisition cost Because the grain market in Shandong Province has not been opened up, the purchase price of wheat in Shandong Province was relatively high last year, coupled with factors such as the cost of storage, the price of wheat stock is relatively high, and the sales of wheat should also be in accordance with the requirements of the Agricultural Development Bank of China (ABC) for sale at a favorable price Therefore, it is difficult to achieve the goal of rising or falling, showing a stable situation at present Rth3, affected by the treatment of aged wheat Since this year, the aging wheat treatment in China has been continuous, especially in recent Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, which has significantly affected the market supply of new wheat in Shandong, to a certain extent, inhibited the price rise of new wheat in Shandong Rth 4, affected by the wheat market in Jiangsu Province According to the survey, since this year, the purchase price of medium-sized common white wheat in Northern Jiangsu processing plant has been hovering between 1060-1080 yuan / ton The ex warehouse price of Teyi flour is 1330-1340 yuan / ton, 10-20 yuan / ton lower than that before the Spring Festival, and 1240-1250 yuan / ton lower than that before the Spring Festival The price of wheat and flour in Northern Jiangsu continued to be low, which restrained the rising of wheat price in Shandong Province and the inflow of wheat from Shandong Province to northern Jiangsu Province Although there is a serious shortage of wheat stocks in the north of Jiangsu Province, most of them go to Anhui Province to purchase raw grains (because Anhui Province is mostly soft common white wheat with low price), but not to Shandong Province to purchase wheat, which also restrains the rise of wheat price in Shandong Province Rth expects that the market situation of Shandong ordinary white wheat will not change much in the near future, and its price will still hover at the current price RTh