Analysis of the reasons for the rapid change of corn in early May and the trend in later period (6.9)

OA show ('918 '); since May, the weak trend of the domestic corn market in the early stage of the reform has come out of a wave of rapid rebound The rapid range of the trend is beyond the expectation of the insiders It is understood that the main factors leading to the sharp rebound in the current national corn market price are: first, the sharp increase in the number of exports in China, favorable policies such as 368 yuan / ton of state subsidies for export corn, and high port delivery price (the closing price of Dalian port is 890 yuan / ton) Southeast Asia's economy continues to recover Since this year, China's corn export situation has further improved According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, China exported 2.02 million tons of corn (1.22 million tons of which were exported in March), 3.24 times of the same period last year The dramatic increase in export volume will affect the domestic corn supply-demand relationship Second, it is affected by the reduction of railway transportation plan First of all, the northeast of the main corn production area is busy completing the 10 million ton export plan goal, resulting in a large number of corn transported to Dalian and other ports by railway in the near future (it is understood that the corn arrived successively has reached 5 million tons) In this way, the number of Railways going to the mainland is relatively reduced Secondly, the railway department has scrapped a batch of trucks that are out of service in a planned way Thirdly, the prelude of the western development has been opened In order to ensure that all kinds of materials needed for the western development can be put in place in time, the state has concentrated a considerable number of transportation capacity to live in the western region to transfer materials The above factors lead to a significant increase in the transportation cost of grain wagons from the main production areas in the north to the sales areas in the south In order to ensure the supply of raw materials, many feed factories in the South have transferred to Henan Province in the Central Plains to buy grain, which are cash and spot, with high transaction price, resulting in the rapid rise of corn market price in Henan since the beginning of May Third, it is due to the expected psychological impact that the national corn production will further decline this year According to the national plan to adjust the structure of agricultural industry, this year's "soybean corn" pricing plan will be implemented in the northeast of China Jilin Province will reduce about 9 million mu of corn this year, and Heilongjiang Province will reduce about 4 million mu of corn this year Most of the reduced areas are high-yield corn areas, while Northeast China has always been the main corn production area in China, accounting for the total corn output of China As many as 1 / 3 of them are commercial corn, the output of corn in Northeast China plays an important role in the supply-demand relationship of domestic corn market 4 It is caused by the overall recovery of feed industry and the obvious increase of corn demand With the approaching of China's accession to the WTO, it stimulates the development of the aquaculture industry with obvious competitiveness at home and abroad, and the expansion of scale increases the effective demand for feed Once entering WTO, it will bring great business opportunities for these meat exports At the same time, due to the continuous improvement of domestic economy and the increase of domestic demand for meat, poultry and eggs, it is also one of the factors to promote the recovery of feed industry, so as to promote the increase of effective demand for corn All these factors will promote the domestic corn market to continue to strengthen in May China feed industry information network qs3 (author:)