Analysis of the main factors influencing the trend of market grain price

Introduction: (1) there is still a certain gap in grain production and demand this year, and the basic situation of tight supply and demand has not changed fundamentally The National Bureau of statistics preliminarily predicted that the grain planting area of the whole country will be 1.558 billion mu this year, an increase of 2.3% over last year According to the analysis of some current meteorological data, this year's climate and disaster conditions will be a little worse than last year It is estimated that the grain production and demand gap in that year will be about 30 billion jin (2) the State shall continue to implement the minimum purchase price policy for major grain varieties The relevant departments of the state have successively announced the minimum purchase price policy for this year's rice The price remains at the level of last year, specifically 70 yuan per 50 kg of early indica rice, 72 yuan per 50 kg of medium indica rice and 75 yuan per 50 kg of Japonica rice This will play a supporting role in the future market grain price trend (3) the commodity inventory of state-owned grain enterprises continues to decline, and the structure is unreasonable At present, the number of national grain reserves has increased, but the commodity stocks of state-owned grain enterprises continue to decline By the end of March 2005, the commodity inventory of state-owned grain enterprises had dropped by 58.2 billion jin year on year, a drop of 29% The consumption of rice accounts for about 40% of the total consumption of the whole society, while the current stock of rice products only accounts for about 27% of the total stock, which is obviously low (4) the problem of Japonica rice is more prominent From the perspective of the current national commodity stocks of Japonica rice, it accounts for 64% of the rice, but the proportion of aged grain is relatively high, and the effective supply is obviously insufficient, and most of the japonica rice commodity grain is concentrated in the three northeastern provinces, which is greatly restricted by the transportation bottleneck (5) increase in transportation costs On March 25, the Ministry of Railways and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued a document, raising the railway freight cost by 0.5 points / ton km from April 1, including 0.47 points / ton km for grain freight In addition, the price of oil in the international market remains high, and the price of domestic diesel oil keeps rising, so the cost of grain transportation will increase accordingly, thus providing a certain degree of support for domestic grain prices The main factors restricting the rise of grain prices are as follows: (1) grain production in China started well this year The survey results of farmers' planting intention show that farmers' enthusiasm for grain production is still high in 2005 The planting area of summer grain in China was 395 million mu, an increase of 4.8%, reversing the seven-year decline The sown area of Winter Wheat in summer grain increased by more than 10 million mu compared with the same period last year, and it is growing well at present, and the soil moisture is suitable This is also an important reason for the general decline of domestic wheat prices since April (2) the psychological expectations of producers and distributors on the market have changed It has been a year since March last year that the market grain price has been gradually falling from the high level With the passage of time, the psychological expectation of the farmers who had a strong mentality of reluctant to sell and the grain and oil distributors who were bullish about the future market has quietly changed, and the expectation of stability or bearish has risen Now, the investment and sale of some farmers has increased, and the distributors who have more inventory have also started to actively promote sales, resulting in the increase of market circulation supply in the short term, plus the society Consumer demand is not strong and prices are weakening (3) a large number of stored grain and revolving grain are rotated out of the warehouse In the first half of last year, the state stepped up efforts to enrich local reserves, and increased the demand for grain by reserving grain sources and replenishing warehouses, which is one of the main factors causing the price rise At the same time, due to the sharp rise in food prices, the number of northern grain transported to the South has increased dramatically, and some enterprises are reluctant to sell their positions Since this year, some grains in some main sales areas are still overstocked in the warehouses for sale Grain enterprises have a lot of goods coming in and going out, and there are a large number of grains that need to be rotated out of the warehouses Since the middle and late March, open bidding sales activities are relatively frequent, and nearly 20 times have been held in Zhejiang Province alone, which has a great impact on the trend of market grain prices From the perspective of the whole year, the author thinks that the grain price trend in the next stage mainly depends on the grain production of this year, especially the autumn grain production, which accounts for 70% of the annual output, will play a decisive role in the balance of domestic supply and demand and the trend of grain price It is expected that the price trend of the main grain varieties in China and the province will be different in the later period: (1) wheat prices continue to fall As summer grain is expected to have a good harvest, wheat is on the way, and the state has not implemented the minimum purchase price policy for wheat, the price may continue to decline (2) the price of late rice (rice) is relatively firm, rising steadily Although the domestic rice output increased last year, there was still a 20 billion jin gap between production and demand in that year, and the inventory structure and regional layout were unreasonable Most of the japonica rice commodity grain was concentrated in the three northeastern provinces, which was greatly restricted by the transportation bottleneck The minimum purchase price of rice recently announced by the state was maintained at the level of last year With the continuous consumption of inventory and the reduction of the frequency of storage grain rotation and delivery, the And the gradual implementation of the central reserve grain replenishment, coupled with the current high price of late rice in Northeast China, it is expected that the later price will rise steadily (3) corn prices remain low Recently, affected by the measures taken by Jilin Province, the main production area, to buy corn by listing, to solve the problem of farmers selling grain, and the export quota issued by the central government, the price of corn in the market picked up slightly However, due to the huge harvest of corn in China last year, the output in that year was more than 30 billion jin, and the fierce competition in the international market, it is expected that the corn market in the later period will not be able to improve greatly (4) soybean market changes with the international market In recent years, the domestic soybean production is insufficient and needs a large number of imports every year The market is more subject to the influence of the international market, and the price will rise and fall with the rise and fall of the international market.