Analysis of the influence of Brazil's soybean entering China on the international and domestic market

Introduction: according to overseas media rumors, according to overseas media rumors, the Ministry of agriculture of China has approved Brazil's soybean to enter the Chinese market If the news is true, what kind of impact will this have on international and domestic soybeans? Liu RI, an analyst in the middle of Liaoning Province, analyzes this article Kc8 1 Brazil's market share in China's soybean import market may exceed that of the United States, and it will impact the dominant position of American Soybean in the international market Kc8 China agrees to import Brazil's soybeans, which indicates that the import pattern of China's soybeans will still maintain the tripartite confrontation among the United States, Argentina and Brazil Moreover, if the government grants Brazil's soybean import license rapidly, many traders may cancel high discount American orders and turn to South America, so Brazil's soybean export share to China may exceed that of the United States At present, the U.S soybean export sales and export shipment to China still maintain a leading position However, it is still some time before the end of the market year, so Brazil's soybean export to China still has strong potential, especially Brazil's competitive sales price At present, it is not ruled out that due to its outstanding price advantage, some of the early US soybean purchase orders are shifted to Brazil This is because many traders realize that the low price of Chinese soybean meal and the sideways fluctuation of soybean oil products will probably continue the seasonal trend from the current period to April, so it is better to resell American soybeans and order the South American soybeans with steadily increasing demand after April In this way, in the soybean import pattern of our country, Brazil is not excluded from the possibility of occupying the most important position And once the license acceptance starts in mid February, the share of March's soybeans may also shift to Brazil In this way, Brazil's market share in China's soybean export may exceed that of the United States In terms of the import structure of kc8 last year, both the United States and Argentina showed different degrees of decline in the proportion of China's soybean exports However, Brazil took advantage of expanding the planting area and fertile land resources to occupy the proportion of the world's soybean exports From the perspective of purchasing situation in 2003, South American soybeans, due to its low price advantage, lead to a more prominent pattern of global soybean purchasing trend in South America However, because of its turbulent financial situation and limited exploitable land resources, Argentina has insufficient potential In the long run, China's soybean import in the later period will be closer to Brazil Kc8 For the international market, the continuous growth of Brazil's soybean export, especially the growth of sales to China, the first soybean buyer, will break the balance pattern of the international trade pattern, make Brazil's soybean share in the international trade continue to increase, constantly seize the market share of the United States, and gradually weaken the guiding role of American Soybean on the international market price Kc82 Brazil soybean has little impact on the domestic soybean market in general, with obvious stage performance and limited impact on the futures market price The import of kc8 Brazil soybean will impact the domestic soybean market price Brazil's soybean re landing in China has had a strong psychological impact on the domestic soybean spot market, which will be ahead of its time in the futures market Liandou market also panic sell-off stage, a rare situation of continuous decline and stop However, if we consider that the current domestic soybean trading varieties are non GMO soybeans, the price positioning of soybeans market still depends on the supply of non GMO soybeans in China Brazil's soybeans are only the spot circulation of GMO soybeans in the field of stage impact squeezing, so it is difficult to form a more substantial impact on the futures price, which will only weaken the futures price to a certain extent The strength of the rise KC 8 national soybean also has the advantage that Brazil soybean does not have Domestic soybean has become a recognized green food in the field of food circulation, and no matter the domestic and international markets, the use of food soybean is also constantly increasing, a number of protein nutrition function development plans of soybean have been launched, and the non genetically modified green food of soybean in China is gradually recognized by the world, which indicates that the future market of soybean in China is more promising Brazil's soybeans, known as non GM soybeans to win the market, do not have Although Brazil officially does not allow the commercial planting of genetically modified soybeans, more than 30% of Brazil's soybeans are planted by genetically modified soybeans driven by interests, and mixed loading and transportation are common In the long run, it is difficult for Brazilian soybeans to impact domestic soybeans On the contrary, Brazilian soybeans may be at a disadvantage in the future competition Kc8