Analysis of the impact of new soybean listing on the domestic soybean market

Introduction: in terms of production area: since October, the purchase price of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang production area has gradually declined, and the purchase price of farmers in Jixian area has dropped from 0.80 yuan / Jin after opening scale to 0.785 yuan / jin at present, compared with 0.83 yuan / Jin in the same period last year; the purchase price of soybeans in Eastern reclamation area has dropped 1-2 points from 1 jin after opening scale Up to now, the purchase price of soybean in Heilongjiang Province is about 0.8 yuan per Jin, and the lowest price has reached 0.74 yuan per Jin The purchase price of new soybean in the north of Shandong Province is 1940 yuan / ton (oil content is 18%, moisture and impurities content is 14% - 15%), and that in the middle and south of Shandong Province is 1960-1980 yuan / ton The harvesting of new soybean in Northern Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province has been basically completed At present, the price of new soybean purchased by processing plants in Northern Jiangsu Province is 1960-1980 yuan / ton The price of purchasing new soybean in Anhui is 1940-1960 yuan / ton The oil content of the new soybean is 16% - 17%, and the content of water and impurity is 14% - 15% 　　 Sales area: as a pure soybean sales area, a small number of new beans from Anhui, Henan and other places have been listed in Fuzhou market since late September Due to the high moisture content of new beans, the sales volume is about 2120 yuan / ton In the first and middle October, the price of new beans in Fuzhou market has gone out of the trend of first restraining and then rising In the first ten days of October, the arrival volume of new beans in Fuzhou market has increased, and the price is lower than that in September After that, the price of new soybeans in the market has recovered and returned to 2120-2140 yuan / ton At present, the soybean market in Fuzhou has been basically occupied by new soybeans Although the price of old soybeans is set at 2200 yuan / ton, no one has paid attention to it The main reasons for the current trend of domestic soybeans are as follows: 1 Compared with last year, the output of domestic soybeans has increased slightly According to the national grain and oil information center, the output of soybeans in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia will reach 7.728 million tons, an increase of 10.2% Therefore, farmers and traders are not as reluctant to sell as they used to be, and are willing to sell at the current price, which further reduces the probability of a substantial increase in the price of new beans at the stage of listing 2 The overall quality of soybeans this year is not as good as last year According to the information from the production area, the quality of Heilongjiang's soybeans this year has declined compared with that of last year The specific performance is that the type of soybeans is small, the crushing rate is more, the proportion of green beans is high, and the number of insect eaten soybeans is more than that of last year 3 The impact of soybean meal and soybean oil prices, the current domestic demand for feeding industry has not been effectively amplified, the soybean meal market continues to be depressed, oil and meal (the ex factory price is 1600-1640 yuan / ton), Shandong oil plants mostly reduce or temporarily stop production To a large extent, this restricts the upward space and strength of soybean prices 4 With the settlement of the soybean trade dispute between China and the United States, the United States has already shipped two ships of soybeans to China, and this momentum will continue to develop This has brought more pressure to the already depressed domestic soybean price According to the comparison of the prices in the production and marketing areas, the price positioning in Fuzhou market is still reasonable The recent recovery of new soybean prices in Fuzhou market is largely affected by the Sino US soybean trade dispute However, with the large number of new beans listed in the production areas and the soybean import into the normal track, the new soybean prices in Fuzhou will fall down.