Analysis of the general trend of the pharmaceutical industry in 2015

Source: e-medicine Facebook will die in 2014-12-23, the beginning of the year of the sheep Sheep are docile, obedient, stubborn, reckless and indifferent to change For example, the ancients described human nature as reckless, saying that they could not move forward or backward by hanging horns like sheep on fences, providing opportunities for hunting and competitors In the year of the sheep, opportunities and crises are polarized for different enterprises and people In the first part, let's talk about what is the "time of heaven"? In short, the time of the son of heaven Who? How to govern? For enterprises, Tianshi includes not only the state's policy orientation to the industry, but also the inertia of the general trend, the influence of science and technology and the social psychological value orientation 1、 It is not a bad signal that the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry is declining The growth rate of nearly twice of GDP in successive years is inconceivable in the next 20 years Moreover, the basic data of the business scale of the pharmaceutical industry is getting larger and larger If you stand in the perspective of big health, more coke 2、 The positive effect of "liberalizing" has accumulated momentum, and the "road" of medical reform has been silent At the beginning of 2014, Li Keqiang put forward the guidance of "medical insurance, medical treatment and medical treatment" linkage, and then the medical and medical policies have been quietly repositioned First of all, the price of non-public medical services will be liberalized, then the price of medicine will be liberalized, the approval authority of medical devices will be liberalized, the conditions for cross regional product production number and entrusted processing will be liberalized, the scale expansion of public hospitals will be limited, the development of non-public hospitals will be liberalized, the approval authority of medical institutions will be devolved, doctors' multi-point practice will be liberalized, Internet drug sales will be liberalized, and the new drug review team will be enlarged , encourage the innovation of medical bidding and medical insurance management mode, etc A series of "open" combinations delineate a new world of medicine and even medical market: public health maintains the status quo, enlarges the status of non-public medical market; public medical government investment tends to be conservative, enlarges the market-oriented medical and health care space The reform of the medical system starts from providing doctors with more and broader practice channels, jumping out of the sensitive areas where medicine is divided into different industries, doctors and hospital platforms are separated, waiting for the "fourth doctor" medical and health service platform linked by the Internet, and gradually promoting the reform of public medical institutions with the market forcing method 3、 The government's supervision is strengthened, and the standardized operation of enterprises is imminent in 2014 In, the investigation and treatment of medical bribery began to follow the lead in the supply chain The investigation and treatment of foreign enterprises' prices and bribes were treated equally They dared to stop such deceptive projects as gene sequencing The flight inspection began to act as a tool for the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, a test point for financial and tax inspection, and so on The government's efforts in rectifying, exorcising and rectifying the deviation were growing In 2015, the cross-border behavior of business operation really became a risk The word I use here is "real" Because of the greedy and opportunistic enterprises, the word "risk" is not the wind of pillow, but the edge of the item 4、 Science and technology lead the trend of profit, but it is not allowed to muddle up the pace of Internet drug sales license in 2014 Ma Yun imagines the future hospital, Internet thinking and mobile marketing Many R & D innovations are rising in different fields, from diagnosis to medicine With the concept of Internet, troubled capital seems to be in a mess Innovation is great, and disruption is shocking However, it is not easy for the grand plan of R & D or the hurricane of disruption to evolve into a permanent force in the complex and changeable medical jungle For most companies, it's better to stay away from the impact of hurricanes and study how to make profits in the footprint of dinosaurs Blindly follow the trend, but easy to lose their own 5、 The orientation of social psychological value is mobile To adapt to the psychological trend, we can take advantage of the trend to focus on a theme for the hot health care column of TV and radio in 2014: Traditional Chinese medicine; the wind of currency devaluation focuses on a voice: money is not spent, devaluation is free; the reflection of the society on medical institutions focuses on a theme: solve their own health problems with their own solutions; Wechat has transcended the power of authoritative media in the field of information It is an information infinite state without center and focus It has given unprecedented promotion to the value of cultural and literary writing The two concepts of "sharing and experience" not only represent a kind of ability in 2015 pharmaceutical marketing Good things may not be spread and recognized effectively, but bad news is spreading faster than lightning In the second part, let's talk about what is "local interest"? For an enterprise, the local interest is not only a favorable condition for winning the competition, but also a place where there is profit and where it can easily grab profits In 2014, the blue book of medical reform provided a set of data, saying that the amount of personal health expenditure in China increased from 587.586 billion yuan in 2008 to 965.455 billion yuan in 2012, up 64.31% from 2008 The conclusion is that the huge investment of the government in medical and health care has not reduced the medical burden of individuals This is a good signal for pharmaceutical enterprises, which proves an industry consensus: the willingness and ability of people to pay for health care are rising rapidly So, for pharmaceutical enterprises, who will benefit from the growth opportunities and profits in 2015? First, the market of prescription drugs has changed a lot The marketing value of diagnosis and treatment programs begins to reflect the role played by prescription supervision, evaluation mechanism, financial and tax inspection and anti-corruption of public medical institutions, which will continue to increase The driving mode of prescription drug cost is hard to be eliminated, but the power is weakening The top varieties with more than 3 billion sales scale of prescription drug list will be gradually transferred from the field of biochemical medicine to the field of Chinese patent medicine The drugs that promote the improvement of basic rehabilitation of human body are difficult to promote immediately, but as auxiliary drugs to promote the rehabilitation of various diseases, they will be the seed group of leading single products in the future The promotion of prescription drugs has gradually developed from driving products to driving treatment programs Pharmaceutical enterprises with vision and strength will promote comprehensive diagnosis and treatment programs with their own products as the core for specific diseases The rapid development of doctors' multi-point licensing and private hospital medical system has brought a new position to the promotion of prescription drugs More than 120 medical investment and management companies and more than 2000 chain hospitals of Putian department have not attracted the attention of pharmaceutical enterprises before, but after 2015, non-public medical institutions represented by Putian department will become the market growth point of prescription drugs, especially specialized drugs In terms of scale, the prescription drug market will also maintain a rapid growth momentum Don't be fooled by the data on the decline of growth rate, because the absolute value of growth is not a small number as the base scale becomes larger However, the profit level of prescription drugs may decline for the first time, which does not represent a trend In the long run, although prescription drugs are hidden in the treatment plan, they will still occupy the leading position in the pharmaceutical market for a long time 2、 Over the counter drug market terminal differentiation, the great health mission of drugstore chain is just beginning, the big capital plus Internet will increase the disruption by burning money and pasting backwards, and the impact on retail drugstores, especially in large and medium-sized cities, will increase Online drug sales, the opening of private medical institutions, multi-point practice of doctors, and the opportunity of non hospital pharmacy system in OTC drug retail are further divided With the policies of prescription drug management and antibiotics restriction, the right of retail pharmacies to sell drugs has been continuously reduced Retail pharmacies occupy the convenience of the land and have the professional reasons, and their profitability in the drug field has declined The dilemma of operation may force us to obtain a larger perspective of operation and upgrade service Great health, especially the health care of traditional Chinese medicine, and even play the logistics function to promote the last kilometer of regional drug distribution to the door, there are unlimited profit opportunities In 2015, the good neighbor strategy to win the trust of surrounding people will have different development in different chain companies The key of good neighbor strategy is the store manager holding shares, and the chain pharmacy control mode innovation will usher in a climax In 2015, the popularity of pharmaceutical chain alliance began to cool down, and each chain began to reflect on its own survival philosophy Although the advantage of geographical location can be replaced, the strength of service and brand will be rewarded It is better to be good at yourself than to keep warm This will bring new changes to the single product breakthrough and promotion of pharmaceutical enterprises 3、 The field of medicine circulation is still turbulent The advantage of cold chain logistics increasingly shows that the policy of medicine circulation in public hospitals is uncertain, which determines the speculative management strategy of medicine circulation enterprises The medicine circulation of public medical institutions dominated by public power determines the regional characteristics and development bottleneck of medicine circulation Since 2013, some pharmaceutical distribution enterprises have gained great benefits in the non-public medical system However, low efficiency and high cost are still the challenges facing the pharmaceutical distribution industry With the application of mobile Internet technology, the social value of logistics becomes more and more prominent It is still the strategic theme of large pharmaceutical logistics enterprises to seize the dominant position of pharmaceutical logistics in the next three years Previous facts have proved that to win the future, it is obviously not enough to rely on the power of capital and model alone, and it is also difficult to sustain with the help of government relations In return, logistics enterprises should attach importance to the value of human brain, on the one hand, improve internal operation efficiency and reduce management costs; The second is to establish a distribution alliance with terminal drugstores, with distribution tentacles extending to families, which will become the key strategic point in 2015 In the name of big health, cross-border logistics in 2015 is inevitable In particular, cold chain logistics has greater profit opportunities 4、 There is a large space for home medical devices, and it is difficult for the profit growth rate of diagnostic reagents to rise The growth power of home medical devices mainly comes from the positive attitude of retail pharmacies, the application and promotion of TV health programs and patent technology However, the pessimistic prediction of the profit growth rate of diagnostic reagents comes from three aspects: the funding pressure of public health care, the sinking of private hospital service objects and the increasing competition in the market of diagnostic reagents Third party diagnosis needs to continue to work hard to establish its own authority Diagnostic reagent manufacturers will start the shuffling process, and the evaluation and extension of diagnostic reagents from the perspective of medicine rather than production technology provide an opportunity to establish the status of diagnostic reagents in the Jianghu In 2015, the field of medical diagnosis will gradually become a capital hot spot because of the considerable profit margin, low threshold, and the technical characteristics of mining basic research to reach the peak The promotion mode of the integrated solution of diagnosis, evaluation and treatment has been paid more and more attention by large R & D pharmaceutical enterprises 5、 Cultivation and processing of traditional Chinese medicine are more promising The most direct and effective measure to maintain the rapid growth of traditional Chinese medicine is the health regimen program of TV station While experts and scholars are still debating whether traditional Chinese medicine is useful or not, the next mother stewed hen with Astragalus and porridge with wolfberry and Tremella have become a living habit Chinese people's deep-rooted culture of traditional Chinese medicine can boil with a little temperature, not to mention the common rendering of major TV stations Once the pieces of traditional Chinese medicine into daily life, its amount is not comparable to industrial raw materials The recognition of traditional Chinese medicine health preservation will directly affect the recognition of traditional Chinese medicine We should pay attention to the research of consumers' psychological cognition, and promote the traditional Chinese Medicine Guided by consumers' psychological cognition Every common variety has a great chance For the exclusive traditional Chinese medicine for curing