Analysis of the egg market in the third quarter of 2004

Introduction: Content abstract: in the third quarter, China's poultry production continued to show a recovery growth Compared with the same period last year, the export volume of egg products in China decreased and the export volume increased The price of egg, egg chick and layer compound feed continued to rise In the international market, the price of eggs in the United States and Germany decreased, while the price of eggs in Canada, Singapore and Japan increased 1 Poultry production continued to grow in a restorative way Affected by this spring's "bird flu" epidemic, poultry production was severely damaged in the first quarter With the overall control of the epidemic situation, the implementation of supporting policies, the gradual recovery of poultry production and the recovery of poultry product prices, especially in the third quarter, the rapid growth of egg prices and the recovery of poultry breeding benefits have greatly promoted the recovery and development of poultry industry In the first half of this year, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Sichuan, Hubei and Anhui provinces (cities and districts) with egg production of more than 500000 tons accounted for 73.18% of the national total 2 Analysis on the import and export situation of egg products from January to September, the export volume of egg products in China was 1119 million, down 1.88% year on year; the export volume was 50651800 US dollars, up 53.94% year on year The import volume and import volume of egg products are very small, and all of them are processed eggs (1) the export volume of fresh eggs decreased From January to September, the export volume of fresh eggs in China was 880 million, down 5.34% year-on-year, accounting for 78.68% of the export volume of egg products; the export volume was 32.6361 million US dollars, up 72.45% year-on-year, accounting for 64.43% of the export volume of egg products The main export countries and regions of fresh eggs are: Hong Kong, Macao and Oman, with a total export volume of 880 million eggs, accounting for 99.92% of China's fresh egg export; compared with the same period last year, exports to Hong Kong and Oman decreased by 5.81% and 31.58% respectively, and exports to Macao increased by 8.30% The total export volume was 32.6105 million US dollars, accounting for 99.92% of the fresh egg export, of which the export to Hong Kong increased by 89.20%, and the export to Macao and Oman decreased by 0.57% and 26.15% respectively year on year The main export provinces (cities) of fresh eggs are: Guangdong, Shandong, Hubei, Liaoning and Beijing The total export value is 32.419 million US dollars, accounting for 99.33% of China's fresh egg export Compared with the same period last year, each province has increased The export of fresh eggs in general trade mode reached US $31.4514 million, accounting for 96.37% of the export of fresh eggs, an increase of 71.09% year-on-year; the processing of raw materials and border small trade mode were less (II) the export of processed eggs increased from January to September The export volume of processed eggs (including preserved eggs and salted eggs) in China was 238 million, up 13.58% year on year, accounting for 21.30% of the export volume of egg products; the export volume was 17.9219 million US dollars, up 29.44% year on year, accounting for 35.38% of the export volume of egg products The main export countries and regions of processed eggs include Japan, Hong Kong and the United States The total export value is 11.1579 million US dollars, accounting for 62.26% of the export value of processed eggs Compared with the same period last year, exports to Hong Kong, Japan and the United States increased by 65.98%, 23.44% and 27.85% respectively Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and Hubei are the top five export provinces of processed eggs in China The total export value is 15.5453 million US dollars, accounting for 86.74% of the total export value of processed eggs Compared with the same period of last year, the export of Guangdong, Liaoning and Hubei increased by 1.68 times, 99.63% and 14.87% respectively, while that of Fujian and Shandong decreased by 9.83% and 14.62% respectively The export of processed eggs in general trade mode reached 17.1925 million US dollars, accounting for 95.93% of the export value of processed eggs, an increase of 39.19% year on year; the proportion of imported processing and other trade modes was very small The import volume of processed eggs is very small, with only 27100 US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 91.70% It is mainly imported from Taiwan Province, accounting for 95.24% of the imported processed eggs III analysis of domestic market price (I) analysis of egg price the average retail price of eggs in China in the third quarter was 6.91 yuan per kilogram, up 30.19% year on year, 12.66% higher than that in the second quarter In September, the average price of eggs in China was 7.42 yuan / kg, the highest level since 2002 The main reasons for the increase in egg prices are: first, the decrease in supply At the beginning of this year, the "bird flu" epidemic reduced the number of laying hens on hand, and the growth of fresh egg production was slow 7 During the continuous high temperature weather in August, the laying rate of hens decreased, and the supply was affected to some extent; second, the demand increased In the hot summer, the residents generally prefer light food, with eggs instead of meat "Mid Autumn Festival" and "National Day" demand for fresh eggs increased, driving the price of eggs up Third, the increase of feed price and the "overload control" of roads have increased the cost of laying hens From the perspective of the main producing areas, in the third quarter, the price of eggs in China's main producing provinces (including Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Anhui, Sichuan and Hubei, the same below) generally increased year-on-year, with an average price of 6.58 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 33.08%, of which Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong and Jiangsu all increased by more than 35% In terms of the main sales areas, the average price of eggs in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian and Guangdong in the third quarter was 6.61 yuan per kilogram, up 35.95% year on year, and the prices of eggs in five provinces and cities all increased to varying degrees There is not much difference between the price of eggs in the producing and selling areas (II) price analysis of egg chickens in the third quarter the average price of egg chickens in China was 2.08 yuan per chicken, up 9.30% year on year, up 7.41% compared with the second quarter The price of egg chicks continued to rise, indicating that poultry began to recover growth, and the enthusiasm of farmers to make up the market increased From the perspective of the main production areas, the price of egg chicks in the third quarter was 1.90 yuan per chick, up 15.89% year on year, of which the increase in Jiangsu was 31.39% (3) analysis on the price of layer compound feed in the third quarter the average price of layer compound feed in China was 1.99 yuan per kilogram, up 19.68% year on year, up 2.05% compared with the second quarter The price of soybean meal and corn is the main reason for the price of compound feed From the perspective of the main production areas, the price of compound feed for laying hens in the third quarter was 1.84 yuan / kg, up 21.38% year on year, of which Jiangsu increased by 43.79% 4 Analysis of the egg situation in the international market (1) analysis of production and trade the egg production in the United States in July this year was 7.54 billion, an increase of 2% year on year The number of laying hens was 342 million, an increase of 2% year on year The U.S egg production in August was 7.52 billion, up 2% year-on-year, slightly lower than that in July The number of laying hens was 342 million, an increase of 2% compared with the same period last year, and the month on month ratio was basically the same The laying rate of laying hens was 22 per chicken, slightly lower than that of the same period last year From January to August this year, the consumption of eggs in the United States was 1.27 billion dozen, an increase of 6% compared with the same period last year The increase in the export of eggs in the United States is mainly due to the recovery of livestock and poultry production in the United States after the control of avian influenza, and the gradual lifting of import restrictions on eggs and egg products in many countries According to Japan's Ministry of agriculture and water, in August, shipments of laying chickens in Japan increased by 12% compared with the same period last year The total number of laying chickens was 8.25 million, up slightly from the same period last year, down 9% from July (II) price analysis 1 Egg prices in the United States fell in the third quarter year-on-year and month on month The average price of eggs in 12 large and medium-sized cities in the United States was 56.94 cents / pound, down 28.77% year-on-year and 21.24% month on month The average price of eggs in 12 large and medium-sized cities in September was 49.85 cents / pound, the lowest level since 2002 The average price of eggs in New York was 65.31 cents / pound, down 27.69% year on year and 18.04% month on month The continuous decline of egg price and the rise of feed price have reduced the profit margin of farmers However, feed prices remained stable in the third quarter It is expected that the wholesale price of eggs in 2004 will be 89-91 cents / dozen on average, and 80-87 cents / dozen in 2005 2 The price of eggs in Canada rose in the third quarter The price of eggs at all levels in Canada rose year on year The price of A-class extra large eggs was 202.85 points / dozen, up 3.40% year on year The price of class a eggs was 199.57 points / dozen, up 3.34% year on year The price of eggs in class A is 188.95 points / dozen, up 3.57% year on year The price of class a small eggs was 144.30 points / dozen, up 1.76% year on year 3 The price of eggs in Singapore soared in August After the outbreak of avian influenza in Malaysia, Singapore banned the import of chickens, ducks and eggs from Malaysia As Singapore's imported eggs account for two-thirds of the total domestic consumption, there is a serious shortage of domestic egg supply, resulting in a sustained rise in prices By September 7, Singapore's retail price of eggs was s $0.6 per egg, more than three times higher than a month ago 4 The price of eggs in Japan continued to increase On August 18, the benchmark price of 2l large-scale eggs in all agricultural Tokyo was 194 yen / kg, 5 yen higher than that of last day On August 25, the benchmark price of M-class eggs was 160 yen / kg, an increase of 5 yen over the previous day, while L-class and ms-class eggs were 3 yen and 5 yen higher than the previous day, respectively 5 The German egg price is running at a low price This year, the German egg price has been running at a low price Although the feed price is also falling, the profit margin of the farmers is still very low In the middle of July, the price of eggs increased, but it soon fell back