Analysis of the domestic wheat production and sale and price trend in 2002

Introduction: this year's winter wheat area is 334 million mu, 3 million mu less than the previous year According to the preliminary forecast, the total output of winter wheat is 85 million tons, 2.7 million tons less than the previous year, a decrease of 3% The yield of wheat per mu was 256 kg, 3.5 kg less than that of the previous year, a decrease of 1.4% Combined with the current climate conditions, it is expected that this year's corn yield per unit area will exceed the level of 1999 The total output of corn will reach 122 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons or 7% over the previous year XWD was affected by the increase of wheat yield per unit area, the decrease of total yield and policy factors in 2001 The domestic wheat market was stagnant From the listing of new wheat last year to the end of this year's harvest, the wholesale transaction price of ordinary white wheat in the production area has been fluctuating in a narrow range between 1060 and 1100 yuan per ton, and the high-quality white wheat has also been consolidated between 1140 and 1190 yuan In the second half of last year, general white wheat in Hebei, Henan and Shandong provinces was basically stable at 1100 yuan per ton, and high-quality wheat was also maintained between 1150 and 1170 yuan Affected by the policy of aging grain in the production area, the market price of wheat gradually fell in the first half of this year From 1100 yuan to 1070 yuan per ton for ordinary white wheat, 1030 yuan in some provinces and regions, and 1140 yuan for high-quality white wheat In the second half of this year, the wheat market is still not optimistic Recently, the wheat price is still stable and falling From late August to early October, wheat prices are likely to rebound slightly in stages, but the price differences among varieties, quality and regions will be significantly widened XWD expects a peak of replenishment in September and October, which will cause a rebound in new wheat prices XWD Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other provinces, the open price of ordinary white wheat is 0.46-0.48 yuan per Jin, the same as last year; quality wheat is 0.52-0.55 yuan per Jin, slightly higher than last year The purchase price of medium white wheat in Jiangsu and Anhui is only 0.42-0.43 yuan, and that of medium red wheat and mixed wheat is 0.44-0.45 yuan The opening price is significantly lower than that of the same period last year, and the quality difference and regional difference are significantly larger XWD corn: the domestic corn market has declined sharply since late July 2001 By December, the average wholesale transaction price in the main production areas had dropped from 1152 yuan to 932 yuan, a drop of nearly 20% Corn in the main production area of Huanghuaihai in Guannei has dropped out of the range of protected price acquisition, with a stronger decline From 1200 yuan to 930 yuan per ton, a drop of 23% The price of corn in Hebei Province dropped to 820 yuan before New Year's day, 130 yuan lower than that in Jilin Province At the same time, the transaction price of corn in the market fell from 1260 yuan per ton to 1070 yuan, and that in Guangdong and Fujian fell from 1300 yuan per ton to 1100 yuan, down 15% After new year's day this year, the price of corn bottomed out and rebounded The price of car boards in the main production areas of Northeast China rose slowly from 935 yuan per ton to 965 yuan in early July In Hebei, Henan and Shandong areas, corn increased from 900 yuan to 1040 yuan In some places, it has reached 1080 yuan The increase of corn in Guannei is significantly higher than that outside Guannei Affected by the recovery of corn prices in the main production areas, corn prices in the sales areas rose at the same time, from 1070 yuan to 1115 yuan per ton, of which Guangdong rose from 1000 yuan to 1140 yuan.