Analysis of the current situation of the upstream feed processing industry of meat products in 2020: feed production.

From the point of view of the meat processing industry chain: China's meat industry chain mainly includes upstream livestock breeding and feed processing industry;
Meat processing refers to the use of livestock and poultry meat as the main raw materials, flavored cooked meat products or semi-finished products, called meat products, such as sausages, ham, bacon, soy sauce, barbecue meat and so on.
That is to say, all livestock and poultry meat as the main raw materials, by adding seasoning of all meat products, not vary according to the processing process, are called meat products, including: sausage, ham, bacon, sauce meat, barbecue meat, dried meat, meat, meatballs, conditioning kebabs, meat pies, bacon, crystal meat and so on.
industry chain upstream feed processing industry status quo 1, China is the largest producer of feed China's feed industry began in the 1970s, after decades of development, feed industry has achieved leapfrog development.
China has become the second largest feed producer after the United States since 1991, and since 2012 feed production has been ranked first in the world for 7 consecutive years, and is truly the world's largest feed producer.
in recent years, the growth rate of feed production in China has begun to decline.
data show that China's feed production in 2018 was 24.213 million tons, down 14.94 percent year-on-year.
2019, China's feed production reached 261.84 million tons, a slight increase from 2018.
by type, China's combined feed production in 2019 reached 21.0138 million tons, down 3.0% YoY;
varieties, pig feed was 76.632 million tons, down 26.6% YoY, of which piglets, sows and fattening pig feed decreased by 39.2%, 24.5% and 15.9%, respectively; Feed was 3.1166 million tons, up 9.6% YoY, of which egg, duck and chicken feed increased by 27.2% and 1.8% respectively, and meat and poultry feed was 84.648 million tons, up 21.0% YoY, of which broiler chicken Meat and duck feed increased by 17.9% and 25.2%, while ruminant feed increased by 9.0% year-on-year to 11.089 million tons, with beef cattle, cows and lamb feed increasing by 32.5%, 0.8% and 0.8%, respectively. 7.8%; Pet feed production was 871,000 tons, up 10.8% YoY; aquatic feed was 22.029 million tons, up 0.3% YoY; and other feed was 2.419 million tons, up 29.5% YoY.
in total feed production, the proportion of pig feed fell to 33.5% from 43.9% the previous year, and the proportion of poultry feed increased to 50.6% from 41.4% the previous year.
data sources: National Livestock Station, China Commercial Industry Research Institute finishing 2, feed product prices remain high with the expansion of production in the aquaculture industry obviously, feed enterprises actively stock up, the price of soybean meal is expected to rise slightly.
corn prices run high, rice, wheat feed replacement increased, early auction corn has been released, imported raw materials have arrived in Hong Kong, the new season corn is about to be listed, corn prices are expected to stabilize high.
fishmeal market, affected by the weather demand is weak, the price is expected to stabilize mainly.
prices of feed products may remain high in the short term.
(1) the prices of major feed products remain high.
the average monthly price of fattening pigs, broilers and eggs and chickens per kilogram was 3.17 yuan, 3.24 yuan and 2.96 yuan, respectively, up 0.3%, 0.3% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, up 5.0%, 3.8% and 3.9% year-on-year.
From the weekly data, the prices of the three main feed products rose slightly for six consecutive weeks, with the market prices in the fourth week of July at RMB3.19, RMB3.2621 and RMB2.98 per kilogram, respectively, the highest weekly price since the third week of October 2015.
(2) the main raw material prices to increase mainly month-on-month.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of soybean meal in China in July was 3.22 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month-on-month, up 0.5% year-on-year, and in July, 43% of the factory price of protein soybean meal in Shandong Province was 2.86 yuan per kilogram, up 5.6% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.
The overall supply of domestic soybean meal is sufficient, China increased the purchase of U.S. soybeans, leading to higher soybean futures prices, domestic feed enterprises actively stock up, soybean meal market transactions are strong, weekly prices show an upward trend, the monthly average price is still slightly lower. the average price of
-fed corn in July was 2.27 yuan per kilogram, up 2.2% month-on-month, up 7.8% YoY;
average price of imported fishmeal in July was 12.53 yuan per kilogram, flat month-on-month and up 3.6% year-on-year.
affected by weather factors, aquaculture growth slowed, the domestic fishmeal market transactions light, prices to stabilize mainly.
(3) imports of feed raw materials increased significantly year-on-year.
According to customs statistics, feed grain raw materials (corn, barley, sorghum and corn wine) imported 2,067.6 million tons in June, an increase of 44.8% month-on-month, an increase of 114.4% year-on-year; 966,000 tonnes, an increase of 26.5 per cent year-on-year, mainly from Ukraine (43.3 per cent of total imports), the United States (23.0 per cent), Australia (15.0 per cent) and Canada (10.1 per cent).
Imports of protein raw materials (bean meal, vegetable meal, sunflower meal, peas and fishmeal) in June increased by 35.0% month-on-month, or 73.7% year-on-year;
(4) it is expected that feed product prices will remain high in the short term.
soybean meal, August soybean arrival forecast more than 10 million tons, domestic soybean meal supply is sufficient, pig farming improved, soybean meal market is strong, while China continues to purchase U.S. soybeans, soybean futures prices form a support, feed enterprises raw materials inventory increased, soybean meal prices are expected to rise slightly.
forage corn, near-storage corn auction strong sales, driving corn prices higher, rice, wheat and other raw materials in the feed will form a replacement for corn, the future of imported grain sources to Hong Kong, to ease the domestic corn supply and demand tension situation, it is expected that in the short term corn prices at a high level of stability.
fishmeal, Peru's new season fishing quota is basically completed, fishmeal sales are relatively smooth, manufacturers prices remain stable;
, the price of the main raw materials is steadily rising, and the price of feed products is expected to run at a high level.
3, feed industry competition pattern (1) regional layout change data show that: in 2019, China's national feed production of more than 10 million tons of nine provinces, two fewer than the previous year, according to the production ranking of Shandong, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hebei, Hubei, Sichuan, Hunan.
, Shandong Province's output reached 37.789 million tons, up 5.9% YoY, Guangdong Province's output reached 29.238 million tons, down 8.3% YoY, and the output value of feed products in Shandong and Guangdong Provinces continued to exceed 100 billion yuan, down 13.1% yoY and 22.6% YoY, respectively.
12 provinces in China increased year-on-year, with five western provinces, including Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang, increasing by more than 20%.
from the total output value of feed industry in various provinces and cities, in 2019 a total of 3 provinces and cities in the total industrial output value of more than 50 billion yuan, 19 provinces and cities in the total output value of feed in more than 10 billion yuan.
the total output value of feed industry in Shandong and Guangdong provinces continued to exceed 100 billion yuan, at 122.893 billion yuan and 106.67 billion yuan, respectively, down 9.1% and 11.2% year-on-year, respectively.
the total output value of Jiangsu feed industry was 51.873 billion yuan, ranking third.
11 provinces in China increased year-on-year, with Guizhou, Shanghai and Anhui increasing by more than 20%.
(2) Enterprise competition pattern data show that the number of pig feed production plants in 2019 was 5,432, 238 fewer than the previous year;
total bulk feed in China was 44.143 million tons, up 5.4% YoY, and the proportion of total feed production was 19.3%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous year.
In addition, according to the China Commercial Industry Research Institute's large database, in the first quarter of 2020, the feed industry A-share listed enterprises, New Hope, Haida Group, Tongwei shares, Zhengbang Technology, Yufeng Livestock, Dabei Nong, Tang Dynasty God, Tiankang Bio, Tianbang shares and Tianma Technology as the top 10 enterprises in revenue.
, New Hope topped the list with revenue of 20,568 million yuan.
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