Analysis of the current situation of grain supply and demand and price operation in China (I)

Introduction: the current situation of grain supply and demand and the range of price operation are issues that grain practitioners are very concerned about and must be clear about However, my research on this aspect is not enough I can only talk about some superficial views for your reference First, China's food supply and demand have entered a tight balance stage In my opinion, there has been a relatively tight state of food supply and demand, but it has not reached the level of food risk Signs of tight balance: first, the production capacity of grain is insufficient, the gap between production and demand is widened, and the inventory is lack of guarantee capacity; second, the seller's market has emerged due to the demand pull; second, the grain price has a bull market, and gradually runs to the high price area In order to find out the current tight balance of grain, it is necessary to make the following quantitative comparison of grain supply and demand 1 Grain supply capacity is gradually weakening (1) grain production is decreasing year by year Especially in the past four years, the total grain output of the country has decreased to 432 million tons by 2003, the lowest in more than 20 years Compared with the highest year, it has decreased by 73 million tons, and the per capita grain share has also decreased from 400 kg to 332 kg, which is lower than 11% of the 375 kg per capita balance of supply and demand In particular, the yield reduction of rations was the largest In 2003, the total yield of wheat was reduced to 86 million tons, 30% less than that in 1997 The per capita share of wheat was also reduced from 196 Jin to 132 Jin, 34% less than that in the world The total yield of rice decreased to 165.8 million tons, more than 34 million tons less than that of high-yield years The output of that year was only enough for the consumption of rations (2) the gap of grain production and demand is increasing year by year Due to the decrease of grain output and the rigid growth of demand, the gap between supply and demand is increasing year by year In recent years, China's annual grain demand is about 485 million tons In 2003, the gap between supply and demand was more than 50 million tons Among them, there is a shortage of 20 million tons of wheat and 22 million tons of rice Since 2000, the accumulated gap of wheat and rice is about 60 million tons and 70 million tons (3) the inventory is decreasing year by year At the end of March 2001, the turnover inventory of commodities in China was 163 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 35.6%, which dropped to 25% by the end of 2003 7% In particular, the inventory of wheat and rice has declined significantly The inventory consumption ratio of wheat has decreased from 74% at the end of March 2001 to less than 30% The ratio of rice stock consumption has slipped from 36% in 2002 to 28%, and it is expected to drop to below 20% in 2004 (4) the guarantee degree of ration is poor It is not difficult to see from the above data that wheat and rice, as rations, are the varieties with the largest decline in yield and inventory The rigidity of rations demand is the most sensitive to the degree of shortage Once there is a shortage, it will endanger food security 2 Structural contradictions are prominent (1) the number of food deficient provinces continues to increase The number of grain deficient provinces in China increased from 14 in 1998 to 18 in 2003 The self-sufficiency rate of grain in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang and other provinces has dropped below 50% Most of these grain deficient provinces are coastal economic developed areas, which not only have the huge demand for food input, but also have higher capacity to pay, which plays an engine role in the rise of food prices (2) grain stocks are concentrated in a few provinces Heilongjiang, Jilin and Henan account for 1 / 3 of the total inventory of the country, 9 provinces account for 1 / 3 of the total inventory of the country, and the rest provinces account for 1 / 3 of the total inventory of the country In the case of extremely unbalanced grain inventory, inter provincial adjustment will not only bring greater pressure to the already tense transportation capacity, but also will strengthen the seller's market and enlarge the price difference between production and marketing areas (3) the social demand has a strong dependence on the State Treasury grain According to the investigation of the relevant departments, the per capita grain reserve of urban residents is 28 Jin, only enough for more than one month's ration There are also different degrees of decline in rural grain storage The national rural grain storage has declined by 12% About 15% of the farmers do not save grain Most of these grain deficient households rely on the State Treasury to supply food, which has already appeared the situation of "the state reserves for the people" Once the grain is tight, the state inventory will be raided, which is also the reason for the rapid decline of the State Grain inventory in recent years 3 The energy of tight balance is still accumulating, and the problem of individual varieties is prominent The state proposes that this year's grain planting area should be 1.5 billion mu, and the total grain output should reach 910 billion jin Even if this goal is achieved, this year's food production and demand gap will still reach 60 billion jin If the total grain output this year approaches the previous year's level or decreases, it will pose a threat to food security In particular, the wheat inventory has declined rapidly When new grains are added, the wheat turnover inventory is likely to be close to the limit Last year, when wheat prices rose, farmers did not get any benefits, and the promotion of prices to production was not implemented to the planting area According to the latest data, this year's wheat planting area will be reduced by 5% and the harvest area will be reduced by 8% In addition, the seedling rating of the main production areas is lower than that of the previous year Even if the total output of wheat can reach the level of last year, the gap between production and demand is still around 20 million tons 4 It is difficult to choose tight balance In the case of food production lagging behind, the realistic choice to solve the tight balance is: one is to use national reserves, the other is to import in large quantities, but it is difficult to make up our minds on both options The state's strategic reserve is a political emergency reserve It is impossible to choose the way of using the reserve when the price of grain rose last year and the reserve rotation failed to be fully in place The state should consider its strategic needs and should not use its national reserves Under the condition of tight grain balance, it is necessary to import some domestic varieties in short supply, but it is not feasible to import large quantities of grain The world food and the domestic are in the cycle of supply shortage The world's grain production has been reduced for six consecutive years, the gap between supply and demand has been widened to nearly 100 million tons in 2003, and the grain inventory has declined for four consecutive years, from 520 million tons in 2000 to 308 million tons, a 40% decrease Under the current trade pattern, a large number of imported grain can only increase the tension in the international market In particular, the great power effect of China's imported grain will stimulate the already high grain price to rise substantially According to Cargill, an international grain trader, the price of international grain will rise by 5% for every 1 million tons of wheat imported by China At present, the international food price is much higher than the domestic food price, and there is no feasibility of commercial operation At the same time, under the circumstances of RMB's single linked exchange rate and the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, large quantities of imported grain will make RMB lose 30-40% At present, a part of American wheat has been purchased at a high price, but in terms of the quantity and mode of purchase, more factors are a positive response and mitigation measures to the huge trade deficit 5 The solution to the tight balance is to increase the price of grain The main driving force for the increase of food production capacity is not only the policy support, but also the increase of planting income brought by the increase of food price To solve the problem of tight balance, first, the State adopts a green box policy to spend money on its own farmers and encourage them to diversify their food The second is to make use of market mechanism, let more currencies chase commodities, and use higher prices to solve the problem of tight grain balance, which is the strategy of invigorating agriculture and benefiting the country The reasons for the tight balance of grain supply and demand can be summed up in three aspects: 1 The inherent characteristics of grain supply and demand (1) the relationship between food supply and demand is naturally unstable The balance of food supply and demand is the material balance Food supply and demand have their own characteristics Grain demand is stable in quantity, continuous in time and irreplaceable in use value Grain supply is not stable in quantity, but intermittent and lagging in time Due to the different characteristics of supply and demand, the relationship between supply and demand has natural instability, which is mainly determined by supply instability (2) food production is lack of controllability Grain production is the result of economic reproduction and natural reproduction at the same time First, market forces Grain production needs material investment These investment must obtain reasonable income through market exchange, and market price is the fulcrum of grain production resource allocation If grain price is high, grain output will increase, otherwise it will decrease Therefore, grain supply ultimately depends on the enthusiasm of farmers' production Second, natural forces Food production is biological production, which has essential life requirements for production conditions In the process of grain production, when the weather is favorable, the production will increase, and when suffering from natural disasters (especially El Nino phenomenon), the production will be reduced, or even the harvest will be cut off The fluctuation of these two forces will cause the instability of grain production (3) the fluctuation of grain supply and demand is cyclical The grain cycle is divided into inter annual production cycle and supply and demand cycle formed by several production cycles The inter annual production cycle reflects the relationship between production and demand in that year The cycle of supply and demand reflects the guarantee ability of total grain production and accumulated inventory to total grain demand in several production cycles Generally speaking, the production cycle depends on the unit production, and the supply and demand cycle depends on the inventory When the inter annual contradiction between production and demand accumulates to a certain extent, it will inevitably lead to the formation of supply and demand cycle This cyclical cycle of contradictions is inevitable in any country The tight balance of grain supply and demand is the manifestation of the cyclical contradiction between supply and demand 2 The special mode of grain production in China China's grain production is self-sufficient production based on small-scale farmers The grain produced by farmers can provide goods to the society on the premise of ensuring self-sufficiency When the grain output decreases, the first thing to decrease is the quantity of commodities In addition, the adjustment of price to the supply and reserve of commodities has reverse characteristics Once the price of grain rises, the reserve function will be strengthened, so as to reduce the supply of commodities and make the grain market unstable 3 System defects There is no good market formation mechanism for grain price, which is the main reason for tight balance Over the years, the government has set the purchase price, the market has set the sale price, the price of grain has been pushed down by more, and the price of grain has been pulled down by less The supply and demand of grain cannot be effectively adjusted, or even reversed In recent years, in the case of successive years of grain production reduction, in order to reduce financial subsidies, the local government has significantly reduced inventory, subsidized sales, and depressed grain prices, making farmers lose interest in grain production, resulting in the situation that the government has pressed inventory and farmers have pressed output, accelerating the arrival of tight grain balance (to be continued)