Analysis of supply and demand situation and price trend of edible oil in China after the Spring Festival

Introduction: before the Spring Festival, the supply of edible oil in various parts of China increased, and the selling pressure was obvious, while the demand was not strong, and the price continued to decline Among them, soybean oil prices are lower day by day, palm oil is in a sustained small decline trend, while vegetable oil prices are stable, but peanut oil is relatively stable Before the Spring Festival, the edible oil market has the following characteristics: first, the peak season is not prosperous, and consumption has not seen a significant increase; second, the pressure of selling by manufacturers is large, and the market sales are larger than the purchase; third, the market is in a downturn, and the transaction is not viable; fourth, the market competition is fierce, and the price of promotion by manufacturers is depressed The main reasons for the above situation are as follows: on the one hand, the total supply of domestic oil is greater than the demand, and the supply pressure is obvious; on the other hand, the imported oil is large, and the domestic inventory is sufficient; on the other hand, the manufacturer's processing and pressing increase before the festival, and the market supply is increased; on the other hand, the domestic soybean is sufficient, and the imported soybean maintains a high level, and the purchase price of domestic soybean and the price of imported soybean are relatively low The soybean price remained low and stable, which made the soybean oil price continue to fall and pushed the oil price down The fifth was that the purchase price of rapeseed before the festival was relatively stable, the supply and demand of peanut oil was balanced, the supply of palm oil was sufficient, and the price fell, which made the overall trend of oil price weak The sixth was that the period of large-scale listing and consumption of animal oil around the Spring Festival replaced part of vegetable oil consumption At present, the supply and demand of grain in the market are balanced and the price is stable, which strengthens the bearish psychology of the market; at the early stage, the disturbance of edible oil has more or less affected the consumer's demand for bottled vegetable oil; at the Spring Festival this year, the consumption of the group has declined, which weakens the market demand; at the present time, the consumer's consumption level tends to be stable, and the purchase behavior has changed It is expected that domestic edible oil will remain in a depressed state after the Spring Festival, and the price will fluctuate at a low level The main basis is as follows: first, the oil production at home and abroad has increased substantially year on year, with sufficient supply From the domestic point of view, it is estimated that the oil planting area in China will reach 226.5 million mu in 2004, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year In terms of varieties, the planting area of rapeseed is 120 million mu, an increase of 5% over the previous year; the planting area of peanut is 8.1 million mu, an increase of 4 million tons, an increase of 5%; the planting area of sesame is 10.95 million mu, an increase of 6% over the previous year; the planting area of sunflower is 16.5 million mu, an decrease of 6% over the previous year; the planting area of soybean is 147 million mu, an increase of 5% over the previous year In 2004, the total yield of oil crops in China was 30.57 million tons, an increase of 8.8% The main oil-bearing crops, rapeseed, are expected to increase production by 9-10%, with a total output of 12 million tons; peanut production is expected to reach 15.4 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4%; in addition, soybean production is expected to reach 18.05 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 million tons, with an increase of about 15% Internationally, oil production has increased significantly According to the analysis of the supply and demand report of the U.S Department of agriculture in January, the world's oil seed production in 2004 / 05 is expected to reach a record 391.4 million tons, 900000 tons higher than last month, and 2 million tons higher than last month; 52 million tons higher than 336.32 million tons in 2003 / 04; soybean, cottonseed, peanut and rapeseed production is expected to increase, and the global soybean production in 2004 / 05 is expected to be 228 9.4 billion tons, an increase of 39.39 million tons over 189.55 million tons in the previous year According to oil world, the global output of rapeseed in 2004 / 05 is expected to be 45 million tons, 1 million tons higher than the forecast in the report on December 17, and 39 million tons higher than that in the previous year As the increase of production is greater than that of demand, the inventory forecast is also increased Secondly, the quantity of imported soybeans and oil is large and growing fast, especially the pressure of imported soybeans and oil Although influenced by factors such as avian influenza, price and loss, soybean import decreased in 2004, but the import volume remained at the high level of the previous year In 2004, the total import volume of soybean was 20.23 million tons, down 2.5% compared with the same period of the previous year, with a small drop It is expected that the import of soybean in 2005 will continue to be more than 20 million tons In 2004, 6.76 million tons of edible oil were imported, an increase of 24.9% over the previous year Among them, 2.52 million tons of soybean oil were imported, an increase of 33.9% over the previous year, 350000 tons of rapeseed oil, an increase of 132.8% over the previous year, and 2.39 million tons of palm oil, an increase of 2.6% over the previous year It is expected that the import of oil and grease will remain at about 7 million tons in 2005 In the first quarter of this year, domestic soybean and soybean oil imports remained at a high level According to customs statistics, a total of 120000 tons of soybean oil were imported in December In January, the amount of soybean oil imported to the port increased In January and February, the amount of soybean oil imported to the port is expected to reach the level of 300000 tons In the near future, the imported soybean oil will arrive in a centralized manner From October to December 2004, the number of soybeans transported to the United States was 3-3.2 million tons In January this year, the number of imported soybeans was estimated to be 1.5-1.6 million tons In February, the number of imported soybeans was estimated to be 1-1.2 million tons In March, the number of imported soybeans was estimated to be 1.5-1.7 million tons In the first quarter, the total number of imported soybeans was estimated to be 4-4.5 million tons In addition, according to the latest news, China promised not to immediately reject the Brazilian soybean cargo found with wizardry China and Brazil have also reached an agreement on the crude soybean oil trade In the future, the domestic soybean oil will face more and more pressure, and the price drop will be inevitable, which will also form a greater pressure on the domestic palm oil market Third, the consumption growth of edible oil tends to decline It is estimated that in 2004, the annual consumption per capita will increase by less than 1 kg, and the annual consumption demand per capita will be about 16 kg Compared with the increase of 2.5kg per capita annual demand in 2001, it decreased by 1.5kg, and the growth of consumption demand showed a downward trend The main reasons for the decline of consumption demand were the impact of avian influenza and the natural decline after the consumption level of export oil reached a high level The consumption of residents before the festival is relatively large, and the surplus after the festival can still be consumed for a period of time, so the consumption demand after the festival will be significantly reduced In addition, the food production has entered the off-season, and the consumption of the whole edible oil has also entered the off-season Especially during the Spring Festival in rural areas, the stock of animal oil is sufficient, and the consumption and purchase after the festival will be significantly reduced Fourth, the total supply of domestic edible oil is greater than the demand In 2003, the total consumption of domestic edible oil was about 16 million tons It is estimated that in 2004, the consumption of domestic edible oil will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of about 6% year on year Among them, the consumption of urban and rural residents' oil exports will be about 11 million tons, that of catering industry will be about 3 million tons, and that of food processing and other consumption will be about 3 million tons However, in the same period, the domestic output is 14 million tons, and the import volume is 7 million tons Assuming that the initial inventory and the ending inventory are unchanged, the total supply volume is about 21 million tons, and the domestic supply volume is greater than the demand volume by 4 million tons The main reason why the domestic supply is larger than the demand is the increase of oil production, the large increase of imported oil and fat, and the decrease of consumption demand Fifthly, the market competition is fierce, and the price of promotion is depressed At present, the domestic oil processing and pressing capacity has reached 60 million tons It is estimated that by the end of this year, the processing and pressing capacity will reach 70 million tons, while the actual processing and pressing capacity in the past two or three years will basically remain at about 30 million tons Under the circumstances of overproduction, reduction of processing and squeezing profits, insufficient funds, low oil price, low demand and price of oil meal in domestic oil industry, manufacturers have to rely on scale to speed up turnover to obtain limited profits, promote more fierce market competition and promote price reduction and promotion Due to the lack of demand before the festival, the stock of manufacturers has not been fully released, so the promotion after the festival is still the main means of manufacturers Sixthly, the price of oil and grease in the international market has been declining, and it continues to hover at a low level Due to the abundant oil crops in the international market, the prices of soybeans, palm oil and rapeseed in the international market have been falling in recent years, which has made the prices of imported soybeans and oils continuously lower, and the prices of domestic oils have also been falling, especially under the current low prices of international soybeans, soybean oil and palm oil, the possibility of the prices of domestic oils continuing to decline still exists Seventh, the domestic breeding industry is in a downturn, and the demand for oil meal is not strong Before the Spring Festival, it is the peak season of domestic breeding industry, but the demand for oil meal in the peak season is not strong, and the price is not rising but falling After the festival, the breeding industry enters the off-season With the threat of bird flu, the development speed of the breeding industry is restricted, so the demand for oil meal will be weaker At present, the stock of oil meal of domestic manufacturers is relatively large, and it is possible to increase sales after the festival Because the price of oil meal continues to decline, most of them The crushing plant has been on the edge of capital guarantee, and many manufacturers' profits have become negative Eighth, the international price of palm oil is low, the domestic import stock of palm oil is large, the weather turns warm after the festival, and the palm oil consumption will gradually increase Since February, the domestic palm oil market has accelerated the rate of reduction, and local prices have declined significantly due to multiple factors such as the market demand is still low, dealers continue to reduce port prices, and international palm oil prices continue to decline Affected by the overall downturn in the demand for edible oil market, the domestic port palm oil inventory is abundant, while the weak market demand and the falling soybean oil price and other factors, the domestic palm oil market is still difficult to get out of the trough after the festival