Analysis of supply and demand of major meat products in the United States

Introduction: June 27 news: in the first five months of 2002, red meat production in the United States increased by 2.5% compared with 2001, of which beef production increased by 3.2% and pork production increased by 1.7% Cowboy and mutton production decreased, but these two red meat only accounted for a small part of the total red meat production in the United States The expansion of production, the reduction of exports and the increase of imports have led to the decline of meat prices in farm, wholesale and retail markets in the United States The pig and pork industries were the hardest hit, with carcass prices dropping by an average of 25% between March and may, while pig prices fell by 30% Retail meat prices also fell, with the nation's average meat and poultry prices in the first half of the second quarter falling the most sharply ever In terms of trade, it is currently estimated that U.S exports of red meat and poultry in 2002 will decrease by 7% compared with the total exports in 2001 U.S pork exports fell 3% in the first quarter, while exports to Mexico, the second largest market in the United States, offset Japan's lacklustre exports Japan's rebound in consumer awareness has kept beef exports steady in 2002, down 8% from 2000 In terms of imports, Canada's live pig exports to the United States increased by 17% in the first quarter of 2002, with a total of 1.5 million pigs Canada also took Denmark's market share in pork exports to the United States In the first quarter of 2002, total pork imports in the United States increased by nearly 4% However, the reduction in poultry exports is considered to be one of the main factors in the current collapse in meat prices Poultry exports are expected to decline by 12% this year, as market access problems in both China and Russia, the two largest export markets of poultry in the United States, have plagued the entire poultry industry The numbers are huge In recent years, Russia has purchased 8% of the total U.S chicken supply, which is more than the U.S beef exports to overseas markets Thousands of tons of American drumsticks that were supposed to be exported were forced to return to the US market, resulting in a serious oversupply of meat In addition to trade issues, U.S livestock producers showed no sign of reducing production in the first half of this year In beef, cattle entering the feedlot and those sold to the packaging plant remained strong in the first quarter Earlier this year, experts predicted that the United States would rebuild its population so that cattle would be left to breed instead of being sent to farms However, the drought in the west is not conducive to population reconstruction, and analysts now believe that beef production will actually increase this year Cattle are very heavy when they are sold to butchers, because weak domestic and export demand makes the processors retain when they buy cattle On the positive side, the sharp decline in the number of cattle entering the feedlot in April may help the price of cattle pick up in the autumn Pork suffered the most Live pig weight has reached a new high and slaughtered a lot By the middle of May, frozen pork stocks had increased by almost a third compared with a year ago With the increase of poultry supply, pork prices are expected to fall in the second half of this year, and live pig prices may not exceed $30 to $40 per 100 pounds of live weight The U.S Department of agriculture's may live pig report showed that pig herds and sows increased by 1% in April compared with a year ago Weak exports and increased imports will make the industry face another low price in the fourth quarter of this year U.S producers have accused retailers of failing to offer greater discounts on all meat that can be discounted Retailers counter that their policy of keeping retail prices "stable" reflects their desire to provide consumers with orderly meat sales They point out that when wholesale prices rise, they don't raise retail prices to pass on costs to consumers (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: