Analysis of soybean supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province in the second half of 2003 / 04

Introduction: according to March 13.1, the annual total soybean supply of Heilongjiang Province is less than that of the previous ure Due to the high price of soybean in 2002 / 2003, the increase of farmers' enthusiasm for planting soybean, and the promotion of the actual measures of the national soybean revitalization plan, the soybean planting area of Heilongjiang province increased significantly in 2003; however, due to the serious drought in 2003, the per unit yield of soybean decreased significantly, and the total yield of soybean decreased year on year, resulting in 20 In 2003 / 2004, the soybean supply of Heilongjiang Province was less than that of the previous year The basic situation of soybean purchase, sale and storage in Heilongjiang Province at the end of February 2003 are: after the new soybean in Heilongjiang Province was listed on the market in 2003, the purchase price fluctuated greatly and experienced a process of three rises and two falls; from the middle of September 2003 to the end of February 2004, the soybean price in Heilongjiang province increased by 800 yuan / ton By the end of February 2004, the consumption direction of soybean purchase in Heilongjiang Province was mainly oil soybeans, and the major oil plants were still the main body of purchase The oil plants in other provinces started early and seized the first opportunity, with a large number of purchase time concentrated before November 10, 2003 In 2003, there were less soybean green beans in Heilongjiang Province The main problem affecting the quality of soybean was that the overall water content was high, and the amount of soybean with water content less than 14% was small Since the new soybean came into the market, farmers have been reluctant to sell Due to the decrease of production and strong demand, by the end of February 2004, the purchase consumption in Heilongjiang Province, the purchase consumption in other provinces and the inventory of unsold soybean of farmers were lower than that of the same period of last year (see the attached table) The soybean supply in Heilongjiang Province will be in short supply in the second half of the year In the second half of the year, the soybean supply of Heilongjiang Province is estimated: by the end of February 2004, the total amount of unsold soybeans of farmers in Heilongjiang Province is about 1.5 million tons, the inventory of soybean traders in Heilongjiang Province is about 170000 tons, the expected supply of grain depot in Heilongjiang Province is about 120000 tons, and the total supply is about 1.79 million tons The soybean consumption of Heilongjiang Province in the second half of ure is estimated to be 850000 tons in the province, including 300000 tons of farmers' seeds, 210000 tons of urban and rural residents' consumption, 250000 tons of oil plants in the province and 90000 tons of others The purchase consumption of other provinces is 940000 tons, including 180000 tons of oil soybeans, 140000 tons of export and futures delivery, and 640000 tons of edible soybeans According to the analysis of national consumption of edible soybeans, in the second half of the year, except Heilongjiang Province and Inner Mongolia, other provinces and cities are not self-sufficient in edible soybeans, which need foreign soybeans as a supplement, and the total amount is expected to be about 1.2 million tons Through the above data analysis, the normal situation of Heilongjiang Province can also provide 640000 tons of edible soybeans for other provinces, and the supply will not meet the demand Our country will increase the cost of imported soybeans in the future, and the price of soybeans in Heilongjiang Province will be relatively low According to the current CBOT futures soybean price calculation, the future import soybean port tax payment theoretical price has reached more than 3900 yuan / ton, while the current Heilongjiang Province oil soybean local average price is close to 3200 yuan / ton, minus the cost to other provinces and the oil price difference of 400 yuan / ton, the price difference is still large The increase in the price of domestic oil meal will lead to an increase in the enthusiasm of oil plants to purchase domestic soybeans According to the analysis of the purchase and shipment of imported soybeans in China at present, the arrival of imported soybeans in March will be reduced to about 1 million tons, the arrival in April will be more than 700000 tons, and the inventory of imported soybeans in China will be reduced to less than 1 million tons by the end of April With the decrease of import soybean arrival, the decrease of import soybean stock and the increase of import soybean cost, it is very possible that the price of domestic oil meal will rise by a large margin As the price of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil directly affects the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province, the increase of domestic oil meal price will lead to the increase of the enthusiasm of oil plants in purchasing domestic soybean, which will drive the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province to rise The water content of the unsold soybeans is on the high side, and the quantity of soybeans meeting the delivery standard is very small At present, most of the unsold soybeans in Heilongjiang Province are high in water content, and few soybeans can reach the a405 and other subsequent contract delivery standards In the early stage, the futures price has reached a high of 3800 yuan / ton It is more likely that some of the hedged and short covered holders will increase their purchase efforts in Heilongjiang Province The high price purchase and delivery of soybeans will also drive the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province to rise The limited supply of soybean in Heilongjiang Province will stabilize the price at a higher price in the later period At present, there are not many soybeans available for purchase in Heilongjiang Province It is a fact that there is no need to dispute that there is insufficient supply and demand Even if the soybean price in Heilongjiang Province falls after surging, the range will be very limited Before the end of August 2004, it is very likely that the soybean price will be stable at a higher price The main factors that restrain the soybean price rise in Heilongjiang Province in the second half of the year are: 1 Some large oil factories in the north are likely to turn the soybean stocks into edible soybean sales Up to the end of February 2004, about 400000 tons of soybeans purchased by foreign manufacturers in Heilongjiang Province have not been shipped out, and there is still a certain amount of inventory in Heilongjiang oil factory; at present, some foreign manufacturers have begun to sell the soybeans not shipped out in Heilongjiang Province, and some oil factories in Heilongjiang Province may also sell the soybeans in stock This will lead to an increase in the supply of edible soybeans Soybeans that fail to meet the delivery standard in Dalian delivery warehouse will be sold in the spot market According to the analysis of the total quality of soybean in Heilongjiang Province in 2003, at present, some of the water content of the soybean in the delivery warehouses in Dalian can't reach the price standard With the rising temperature, the storage problem will make this part of soybean flow into the spot market for sale The high moisture soybean of farmers in the production area will be sold at a lower price within a certain period of time At present, a large part of the unsold soybeans in Heilongjiang Province have high water content It is difficult to keep the soybeans with more than 15% water content after May 1 Farmers must choose the right time to sell them at a lower price, which will have a certain impact on the price of soybeans in Heilongjiang Province Ure to sum up, in the second half of 2003 / 2004, the soybean supply in Heilongjiang Province will become tense; the overall trend of soybean price in Heilongjiang Province will be mainly upward; even if the soybean price in Heilongjiang province fluctuates, it will be easy to rise and hard to fall; the basic situation of soybean supply and demand in Heilongjiang Province reflects the situation of the national edible soybean market UrE