Analysis of soybean meal market in China in recent years (1) (7.4)

OA show ('918 '); lycaceae soybean meal is a variety with frequent market fluctuations The demand and supply of soybean meal are relatively flexible because it involves the processing field, feed industry and edible oil market Because of these characteristics, the market price of soybean meal often fluctuates, and the processing and trade of soybean meal often have greater risks Of course, the risk is directly proportional to the return To grasp the pulse of soybean meal market correctly will bring rich returns to investors 1、 Analysis on the change of soybean meal output and supply and demand in China (1) the change of total soybean meal output In the early 1990s, with the rapid growth of domestic soybean oil demand and the rapid development of feed industry, the number of soybean pressing in China increased rapidly, and the output of soybean meal increased significantly every year In 1990, China's soybean meal output exceeded 4 million tons, and in 1993, it exceeded 6 million tons A year later, the soybean meal production reached the 7 million ton level Since then, due to the slow development of domestic oil industry and feed industry, soybean meal production has been hovering Until 1998, due to the obvious increase of soybean import, the total output of soybean meal in China only exceeded 8 million tons So far, the domestic soybean processing and soybean meal production scale has entered a rapid development stage In 1999, the total output of soybean meal in China reached the level of 9 million tons for the first time, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year Among them, the output of soybean meal in Heilongjiang, Shandong and Jiangsu will be close to 1.7 million tons, 1.6 million tons and 1.9 million tons respectively, and the output of soybean meal in the three provinces will account for 58% of the total output of the country In 2000, China's soybean meal production will continue to show growth momentum, and the output is expected to be close to 12.5 million tons （2） The soybean meal production in the coastal areas of East China is expanding rapidly In East China, the soybean processing capacity of Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces has been greatly improved since the mid-1990s At the same time, the soybean meal production in this region is also increasing rapidly East China is one of the main soybean meal consumption areas in China Now these areas have become the main areas of soybean processing and soybean meal production This is a fundamental change from the situation that the northeast and North China play a leading role in relevant production before the mid-1990s One of the important reasons for this change is the rapid increase of soybean imports Before the mid-1990s, China was a net exporter of soybean, so the main soybean producing areas in China, namely northeast and North China, were the main producing areas of soybean meal After 1995, with the construction of soybean processing plants in the eastern coastal areas, especially the expansion of joint-venture oil extraction plants and processing scale, soybean imports began to grow, and China soon turned into a net soybean importer These areas mainly include Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Dalian and Yingkou in Liaoning As the oil yield and supply stability of imported soybeans are better than those of domestic soybeans, most of the soybean processing plants in the eastern coastal areas use imported soybeans as raw materials In this way, the layout of soybean processing and soybean meal production in China has changed significantly In the early 1990s, the annual output of soybean meal in Northeast and North China accounted for about 70% of the total output of the country By 1999, the proportion had dropped to 50% （3） The processing capacity of soybean will be improved in Jiangnan area of China At the same time of expanding soybean processing scale in the north and east of China, many rapeseed processing plants in the south of China are also preparing to process soybeans due to the continuous drop in the factory price of rapeseed oil On the one hand, increase the equipment to expand the purchase and processing of rapeseed; on the other hand, transform the equipment to increase the soybean crushing and softening process technology - Nanfang rapeseed processing plant is preparing for both Since 1999, the scale of imported rapeseed in China has expanded rapidly, which has a great impact on the price of domestic rapeseed oil At the same time, the macro-economic downturn and the ample supply of edible oil in the international market have also pushed the price of rapeseed down sharply Therefore, many rapeseed processing plants in South China, especially in East China, have begun to face the situation of rapid reduction of processing profits after enjoying high profits in 1998 and 1999 Since 2000, the market price of soybean meal in South China has been very strong At the same time, a large number of domestic soybean import signing activities have been carried out, and the source of processing goods has certain guarantee, which ultimately contributed to the idea of crushing soybean in rapeseed oil processing plant At the end of 1999 and the beginning of this year, many oil mills in East China have adjusted their processing technology while expanding their processing equipment, which is of course very easy If the price of domestic rapeseed oil continues to be depressed, in order to recover the investment as soon as possible after the consumption of newly produced rapeseed in China this year, that is, after October, it will be possible for the rapeseed processing plant to change the way of squeezing soybean into reality However, after the new rapeseed comes into the market, it is almost impossible for the price of rapeseed to rebound, so the possibility of processing soybean in the future in the south is great In April, Zhejiang Province signed a bill to import 150000 tons of soybeans, further confirming the above view （4） Soybean meal production in South China is also growing rapidly Since 1998, the number of oil mills in South China is increasing, which may affect the monopoly of soybean meal market in Shandong, northeast and other provinces The output of soybean meal with imported soybean as raw material is growing rapidly These new output is more distributed in East China and South China, while the delivery warehouse of domestic soybean meal futures trading is more distributed in Northeast China, which will affect the normal development of soybean meal futures trading （5） The growth of soybean meal consumption The factors that can fundamentally affect the consumption of soybean meal are the development of domestic feed and feeding industry Since the 1990s, the total consumption of soybean meal in China has increased year by year However, due to the uneven development of feed and feeding industry, there are also differences in the growth rate of soybean meal consumption between the years In 1992, the annual consumption of soybean meal in China reached 4 million tons for the first time, and in 1993, it was close to 5.5 million tons Since then, soybean meal consumption has increased at a rate of more than 1 million tons per year In 1996, the total consumption of soybean meal in China was nearly 9 million tons After 1997, the growth rate of soybean meal consumption slowed down obviously It was not until 1999 that total consumption exceeded 10 million tons It is estimated that the total consumption of soybean meal in China will reach 11.5 million tons in 2000 2、 Analysis of the import and export of soybean meal in China before the mid-1990s, the output of soybean meal in China was always higher than the domestic consumption, so a certain amount of soybean meal was used for export every year During the four years from 1991 to 1994, the annual export of soybean meal in China exceeded 800000 tons Since 1995, the demand for soybean meal in China has increased rapidly to over 9 million tons, while the growth of production is relatively slow, resulting in the reversal of the situation of soybean meal import and export China imported 1.88 million tons of soybean meal in 1996, 3.47 million tons in 1997 and 3.73 million tons in 1998 Over the same period, exports plummeted to tens of thousands of tons Because of the rapid growth of soybean meal import in 1997 and 1998, the total supply of domestic soybean meal exceeded the total demand, resulting in the rapid decline of domestic soybean meal price in late 1998 However, a large number of soybean meal import contracts are still signed after 1999, which reflects the disorder of soybean meal import market, and also promotes the further decline of soybean meal market price Since the summer of 1999, the value-added tax of 13% on imported soybean meal has been resumed in China, and many domestic importers have suffered great losses in this process In 1999, China imported only 570000 tons of soybean meal, which was basically completed in the first half of the year After the Spring Festival in 2000, the market price of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly, which makes the business opportunity of importing soybean meal reappear In the short term, there are nearly 100000 tons of Indian soybean meal signed for import However, due to the large increase of domestic soybean meal output this year, and the demand of feed and feeding industry for soybean meal will not grow so much, and the market price of soybean meal will not remain at the current high level for a long time, so it is necessary to be very careful to import soybean meal It is predicted that in 2000, China's soybean meal import will not exceed that in 1999 3、 Recent price situation and import opportunities of soybean meal in China after the Spring Festival in 2000, the market price of soybean meal in Jiangnan region of China has risen sharply in a short period of time Compared with the beginning of this year, the average increase is 15-20% The price of soybean meal in Guangdong market even exceeds 2200 yuan / ton After the Spring Festival, the raising quantity of livestock and poultry in South China began to enter the growth period again At this time, the number of soybean crushing in Northeast China was relatively small At the same time, the price of soybean meal in the international market was on the high side and it was difficult to import a large amount of soybean meal, which caused the serious shortage of soybean meal supply in South China market in the short term In addition, some suppliers hoarded a large number of goods in the process of price rise, which further raised the market price of soybean meal, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of soybean meal At this time, it is profitable for South China to import soybean meal, because the duty paid price calculated according to the soybean meal import quotation at that time is less than 2100 yuan / ton By the end of March, the market price of soybean meal in China had become stable The delivery price of soybean plate in Northeast China had been basically stable at about 1750 yuan / ton The delivery price of soybean meal in Dalian and Tianjin was basically 1900 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal in East China was about 1850-1900 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal in South China also dropped At this time, the possibility of importing soybean meal is lost For a period of time since late April, a large number of imported soybeans have been stranded in the port due to the shortage of transportation capacity At the same time, some important soybean processing enterprises in East China are in the period of shutdown and maintenance In addition, the demand of domestic feed and feeding industries for soybean meal has increased seasonally, which makes the price of soybean meal rise to a higher price again The ex factory price of soybean meal in Jiangsu, Shandong and other eastern regions increased from 2050 yuan / ton in late April to 2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in northeast region also increased rapidly to 2000-2050 yuan / ton At this time, the highest price of soybean meal in southern region is close to 2300 yuan / ton Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of soybean meal in these areas has increased by 400-500 yuan / ton At this price, it is possible to import soybean meal At the same time, there are domestic inquiries for the import of Indian and South American soybean meal With the continuation of the soybean pressing season and the arrival of a large number of imported soybeans, the domestic soybean meal supply will continue to increase, so the domestic soybean meal market price may not rise significantly in the first half of this year, and the price trend will be mainly stable However, if the market of feed and feeding industry is bullish, and the number of imported soybeans in Hong Kong tends to decrease in the later period, the possibility of soybean meal price rising significantly after July still exists, at that time, the number of soybean meal imports will probably increase (to be continued) bud (author:)