Analysis of soybean market after the issuance of interim certificate

Introduction: the Interim Safety Management Certificate for genetically modified agricultural products concerned by the market was finally issued on April 18, 2002 The Ministry of agriculture will also publish a list of companies that have successfully applied for safety certificates and labels on its website China's interim measures management procedure for importing genetically modified agricultural products was promulgated on March 11, 2002 In fact, before that, many foreign trading companies had submitted the application report of safety certificate to the GM Biosafety Management Office of the Ministry of agriculture of China However, due to the concession of the Chinese government on the issue of importing foreign GM soybeans, the interim management measures were issued In fact, the issuance of the safety certificate was delayed Therefore, after March 11, the application company submitted and revised the application form to the GM Safety Office of the Ministry of agriculture according to the new method The GM Safety Management Office of the Ministry of agriculture really accepted the applications of all trading companies around March 18 Therefore, on April 18, the approval application was made It also happens to be 30 days According to the provisions of the interim measures management procedure for import of genetically modified agricultural products, the application for safety certificate and genetically modified mark can be carried out at the same time, and the approval time is also 30 days Therefore, domestic importers will also obtain the mark recognition of genetically modified agricultural products on the same day After the traders obtain the import safety certificate of genetically modified soybeans, the import of genetically modified soybeans will start to recover Generally speaking, the import time of genetically modified soybeans from the United States is about 25 days, while the shipping time of soybeans from South America is about 40 days From this point of view, if the import of soybeans starts after the safety certificate is issued, the fastest time to reach China is In the middle of May, 240000 tons of soybeans were recently purchased in an unknown country in the United States, which is likely to be purchased by Chinese importers In fact, from the information obtained from various channels, some traders had expected before they obtained the safety certificate, and started to sign the soybean import contract in the United States and Brazil These unknown imported soybeans are likely to arrive in China earlier According to the analysis of the reserves of domestic soybeans, at the end of March, according to the statistics, at that time, there were about 1.5 million tons of imported soybeans in China, and about 2 million tons of soybeans in Heilongjiang production area, of which about 800000 tons were able to enter the circulation In this way, there were 2.4 million tons of soybeans available As of April 18, the number of imported soybeans in China's ports is about 1 million tons, that is to say, in about 20 days, the number of imported soybeans consumed in China is about 500000 tons, which is significantly lower than the original consumption of soybeans Under normal circumstances, the daily consumption of soybeans in China should be about 80000 tons If domestic self-produced soybeans are to be considered as Instead, the daily consumption has also shrunk, which is mainly due to the fact that some small crushing enterprises have long been in production suspension Therefore, we can also make a judgment that it will be a gradual process for domestic crushing enterprises to resume production within a period of time after the issuance of the safety certificate We expect that the daily crushing volume in May will be restored to the level of 50000-60000 tons, so that the existing soybean of 1 million tons in China can be maintained until the first and middle of May In terms of soybean supply, if there is import only in the middle of May If soybean arrives in Hong Kong, then basically the domestic soybean market will not be out of stock.