Analysis of short-term bad and long-term good for corn market after entering WTO

Introduction: as one of the three major grain varieties in China, corn plays an important role in China's grain economy After China's accession to WTO, the corn market in China will encounter challenges The industry has changed a lot It seems that all kinds of adverse factors will come After China's accession to WTO, China has promised to implement TRQs mode management on corn imports Its actual meaning is to implement low tax rate on Corn imports within the quota and high tax rate on corn imports outside the quota It can be said that after China's accession to WTO, China's corn market will The challenges we face are inevitable However, there are many opportunities hidden behind the challenges It is hard to avoid the short-term negative, but the long-term good is worthy of attention The specific analysis is as follows: First of all, in view of the negative effect of China's accession to the WTO on the corn market at this stage, in fact, the corn market is not subject to the substantial pressure brought by the accession to the WTO on the domestic corn market At this time, the decline of the market price is mainly caused by the influence of the insiders on the air atmosphere of China's accession to the WTO From the relevant data, we can see that the number of tariff quotas in 2002 was 5.85 million tons However, China's grain production has obvious self-sufficiency, which causes farmers to be slow to respond to the price of grain In order to meet their consumption needs, farmers will continue to grow despite the low price of grain, which is a unique phenomenon of China's grain production According to the production situation of corn in recent years in China, the output of corn in the current year can basically meet the market demand, plus the surplus inventory of the previous year, the total supply is greater than the total demand, the domestic market is in the situation of supply is greater than demand, and it is less likely to complete so many quotas, but the reason why there is such a big gap between the tariff within the quota and the tariff outside the quota is that To some extent, the corn industry in China should be protected to prevent a large number of foreign corn imports from causing a greater impact and adverse impact on the domestic corn market Secondly, China's agricultural foreign trade dependence is low, about 10%, while the overall foreign trade dependence of the national economy is 35% - 40%, and the commodity rate of grain is only about 35%, which is less affected by the market and less affected by the world market, especially in the inland areas Therefore, even after China's accession to the WTO, China is fully capable of achieving a total amount balance on food issues, improving its supply capacity and comprehensive strength, and striving to occupy a share in the international market Although the production of soybeans in recent years can not keep up with the rapid growth of demand and the increase of international dependence, the domestic production capacity and domestic market of corn are the key factors The dominant position of price has been established, and the international market has little impact on China's corn market On the contrary, China's corn market plays an important role in the development of the world's corn market Thirdly, after China's accession to the WTO, according to the provisions of the customs and trade agreement, China's high subsidies for corn export will be cancelled, and the export corn will face difficulties, but the Chinese government will never wait to die The export subsidies are expected to be converted into subsidies for corn production, sales and other aspects, so as to increase the planting area of high-quality corn varieties, speed up market circulation and enhance competition in the international market Strive for strength, at that time, corn will come back to life and turn around the crisis In order to adapt to the WTO, slow down the impact of China's grain market and better grasp the opportunities brought to China's grain market, China's government has already made arrangements for the strategy of grain security and development after China's accession to the WTO, and has begun to implement it, that is, adhere to the balance of total amount and structure; adjust the structure of grain planting, optimize the allocation of resources and develop high-quality agriculture; To organize grain production and management according to the market demand at home and abroad, and establish and improve a unified, open, competitive, orderly grain market system that adheres to the international track Since 1998, the grain circulation system reform implemented by the state is a good example In the speech of Vice Premier Wen Jiabao at the national grain working conference on August 20, 2001, the achievements of grain circulation system reform in China in recent years, as well as the shortcomings and deficiencies in the implementation process are summarized in depth, and how to continue to deepen our agriculture in the future is also discussed The reform of grain circulation system has made important instructions, including: due to the unreasonable original grain planting structure in China, the circulation of corn has always maintained the traditional mode of "North grain transportation to the South", and the layout of corn production is not appropriate from the perspective of time and space, so the focus of grain production and supply has gradually shifted to the central and northern regions, and the grain produced in the central and northern regions will be the main one in the future In order to solve the food shortage in the western region, part of the food demand in the southeast coastal region will turn to the international market Our government has made full preparation for all the disadvantageous factors brought about by the links of grain planting, production, sales and circulation due to China's accession to the WTO Although there are setbacks and drawbacks in the specific course of dealing with the impact of accession to the WTO, our government and people will take their time to face the challenges I believe that through the agricultural war of our government We will gradually improve and improve the policies and measures The impact of China's accession to the WTO on agricultural production will continue to be resolved and more and better agricultural opportunities will be created It can be seen that the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the corn market is inevitable, but the adverse impact is not as large as people think After a short period of cloudy days, the corn market will usher in a clear sky.