Analysis of pork market in 2002

Introduction: new page 1 1 Analysis of pork production situation f2b (1) stable development of pig production f2b according to the data of animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture, China's pork production increased in 2002, the number of pigs on hand increased slightly compared with last year, and the number of pigs on hand kept a rapid growth A prominent feature of f2b pig production in 2002 is variety optimization All regions focus on the adjustment of pig variety structure The proportion of high-quality commercial pigs has increased significantly, the quality of pork has improved significantly, and pig production has gradually changed to quality and benefit type At present, the proportion of crossbred lean meat pigs in Shandong, Guangdong, Hunan and Liaoning Province has increased by percentage points over the previous year, reaching 85%, 45%, 40% and 50% respectively; that in Sichuan Province has increased by 11 percentage points over the previous year, reaching 47.8%; that in Hubei Province has increased by 3 percentage points over the previous year, reaching 55%; and that in Jilin Province has increased by 4.5 percentage points over the previous year, reaching 65% F2b (2) the feed price fell and the benefit of pig industry increased Although the price of live pig in 2002 was lower than that of last year, the benefit of pig industry was higher than that of 2001 due to the decrease of corn and pig feed prices In 2002, the ratio of pig to grain in China was 5.53, 4.42% higher than that in 2001 The average ratio of pig to grain in the fourth quarter was 76, 9.03% higher than that in the same period of last year The ratio of pig to grain was also significantly higher than that in the same period of 2001, indicating the improvement of profit level F2b II Analysis of import and export situation of pork The import and export of pork increased by a large margin, while the import and export of live and pig offal decreased From January to November, China's cumulative net export of pig products (including pork and live pigs) was US $387.6433 million, an increase of 14.4% over the same period last year, with a good export situation F2b (I) increase in pork export and import f2b from January to November 2002, China's total pork export was 215000 tons, the total export was 312357400 US dollars, an increase of 43.45% and 39.72% respectively year on year The increase of f2b pork export is mainly due to the increase of exports to Russia and Hong Kong, especially the rapid growth of exports to Russia From January to November, China's pork export to Russia was 68900 tons, accounting for 32.05% of the total pork export, an increase of 2.36 times compared with last year; the export to Hong Kong was 77800 tons, accounting for 36.19% of the total pork export, an increase of 12.58% in the same economy The top 10 provinces (cities) in f2b pork exports include Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Chongqing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Anhui, Fujian, Hunan and Zhejiang, accounting for 88.3% of China's total pork exports The total export value of these ten provinces was US $275.8434 million, an increase of 43.5% over the previous year From the perspective of trade mode, f2b's export volume of general trade is 262176600 US dollars, accounting for 83.9% of the total pork export volume; the export volume of feed processing and border micro mode is 48908000 US dollars, accounting for 15.7% of the total pork export volume From January to November of f2b, the total amount of pork imports in China was 204500, and the total amount of pork imports was 119033100 US dollars, only 10.69% and 32.94% higher than the same period last year Among them, the total import volume of fresh frozen pork is 140200 tons, and the total import volume is 78.5479 million US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 68.27% and 1.14 times respectively F2b imports 147200 tons from the United States, accounting for 71.98% of the total pork imports, 1.12 times higher than last year; imports from Canada are 47300 tons, 23.13%, 21.95% higher than last year; imports from Denmark are 6600 tons, 3.23%, 84.15% lower than last year The top four provinces and cities in f2b pork import are Guangdong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Beijing, with a total import volume of 11832000 US dollars, accounting for 68.83% of China's pork import, while other provinces (cities) saw a significant increase in pork import, with Beijing the largest increase of 23.69 times F2b imports 118.3548 million US dollars in general trade mode, accounting for 99.4% of the total pork imports; the proportion of processing with imported materials and processing with imported materials is very small From January to November, the export volume of live pigs in China was 1717200, and the export volume was 196 million US dollars, down 4.97% and 6.66% respectively year on year Among them, 1.5977 million were exported to Hong Kong, accounting for 93.04% of the total number of live pig exports, down 6.57% compared with last year; 110700 were exported to Macao, accounting for 6.45% of the total number of live pig exports, down 8.63% compared with last year The main reason for the decline in live pig exports is the decline in demand for pork due to the epidemic in Hong Kong and Macao Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, wenben and Shanghai are the top nine provinces in f2b live pig export, with a total export of 193752000 US dollars, accounting for 98.9% of China's live pig export In 2002, the export of live pigs in most provinces declined, the largest decline was in Guangdong Province, which was 16.88% F2b China's live pig import mainly depends on breeding pigs In 2002, the import volume of live pigs decreased and the import volume increased, indicating that the import quality of live pigs in China was further optimized From January to November, the import of live pigs was always 936, down 1.47% from last year F2b from the perspective of trade mode, the export of general trade mode accounts for 99.9% of the total export of live pigs; the import of live pigs is all general trade mode F2b (III) import and export of pig offal decreased from f2b1 to November, the export volume of pig offal was 125.03 tons, and the export volume was 162800 US dollars, with a year-on-year decrease of 68.2% and 16.28% respectively Among them, 86.98 tons, accounting for 69.6% of the total export of pig offal, down 75.07% The export mode of pig offal is all the first-class trade mode From January to November, f2b imported 64200 tons of pig offal, with a total import volume of US $40.4356 million, down 36.65% and 22.86% respectively year on year Among them, the import volume from Canada, Denmark and France decreased significantly, with the import volume always being 20500 tons, accounting for 31.93% of the total import volume of pig offal; while the import volume from the United States was 41800 tons, accounting for 65.16%, up 15.49% year on year F2b 3 Analysis of internal consumption of pork f2b according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the per capita consumption of pork in China from January to November 2002 was 1.677 kg per month If calculated according to this, the per capita consumption of pork in the whole year reached 20.04 kg, accounting for 55.85% of the consumption of meat and poultry Among them, the per capita consumption of pork in Beijing, Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang is less than 50%, especially in the west of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang due to production structure, consumption and religion, the consumption of beef and mutton is relatively large, while the consumption of pork is the lowest in China In Beijing and Shanghai, due to the large consumption and proportion of other meat, such as beef, mutton and poultry, the consumption and proportion of pork is relatively small F2b 4 Analysis of pork market price f2b (1) domestic live pig price and pork retail price were lower than the same period last year, and the price in the fourth quarter was higher than that in the third quarter f2b According to the data analysis of monthly investigation report of animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture, compared with the same period last year, the live pig price in 2002 decreased by 3.71% In the fourth quarter, the national average price of live pigs was 6.00% yuan / kg, up 3.93% from the third quarter The price of live pigs in the main production areas of China (including Hunan, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong and Hebei) has increased by 4.49%, which is higher than the national average The price of live pigs in Henan Province has increased by 6.62%, followed by Sichuan Province, which is 5.07% In 2002, the average retail price of pork in China was 3.88% lower than that in the same period last year In the fourth quarter, the average retail price of pork was 10.24 yuan per kilogram, up 1.80% from the third quarter In Hunan, Sichuan, Henan, Shandong and Hebei provinces where live pigs are the most popular, the average retail price of pork has risen to 9.86 yuan, 1.57% higher than the third quarter, which is lower than the national average In Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong and Fujian, the average retail price of pork is 10.70 Yuan, basically the same as the third quarter Among them, the retail price of pork in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai in the fourth quarter was lower than that in the third quarter F2b (II) the price of pork in the international market decreased compared with last year and other historical periods, the price of pork in the international market showed a downward trend in 2002 From the FAO meat price index in the international market, it can be seen that the price of pork in the international market continued to decline in 2002, except for 1998, 2002 The price of pork is only US $1883 per ton, which is significantly lower than the level of previous years It is the lowest price period in history The price of f2b1 and EU pork keeps falling The top three countries in the world are Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium, which play a leading role in the international market In 2002, the wholesale price of EU pork showed a process of rising first and then declining continuously From the end of January, the average pork wholesale prices in Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium declined until the end of February, and gradually rose By March 26, the average price per 100 kg of pork in this country had reached 142.33 euros, the highest price in 2002 After that, the price dropped In May, the price of pork rose slightly again In late July, when it reached the second high price of the year, it began to decline In September, the wholesale price of pork in three countries fell by 3.53% compared with that in July On December 16, the price reached 115.31 euros, 18.99% lower than the highest price In 2002, the wholesale price of U.S pork showed a small fluctuation, and the overall price level was lower than last year From January to December, the wholesale price of pork cuts decreased by 17.99% compared with last year, the wholesale price of waist meat (14-19 pounds) decreased by 7.37%, the wholesale price of belly meat (12-14 pounds) decreased by 6.46%, the wholesale price of leg meat (20-23 pounds) decreased by 22.81%, and the wholesale price of pork scraps (72% fresh) decreased by 33.99% From January to May of f2b, the wholesale prices of various types of pork segmentation in the central United States showed a trend of rising first and then falling back Among them, the wholesale prices of pork segmentation in May decreased by 9.79% compared with January In the third quarter, the wholesale prices of various types of pork segmentation in the central United States showed a trend of rising first and then falling back Among them, the wholesale prices of various types of pork in July reached the highest since March, while the prices in August and September fell In the third quarter, except that the wholesale price of waist meat (14-19 pounds) was slightly lower than that in the second quarter (about 0.31% lower), the price of pork for various types of segmentation was higher than that in the second quarter In the fourth quarter of f2b, the wholesale price of pork cuts decreased by 1.70% compared with the third quarter, the wholesale price of waist meat (14-19 pounds) decreased by 10.33%, the wholesale price of belly meat (12-14 pounds with skin) increased by 11.49%, the wholesale price of leg meat (20-23 pounds) increased by 22.11%, and the wholesale price of pork chips (72% fresh) decreased by 18.70% F2B