Analysis of pig market in Jiangsu Province (11.14)

According to the recent analysis of the balance between the supply and demand of pig production in Jiangsu Province, the experts of Jiangsu Provincial Department of agriculture and forestry put forward that there is limited space for pig price to rise before the end of the year, and it is unlikely to reach the high price in 1997, reminding farmers to pay attention to the market In the past two or three years, the market price of pigs in Jiangsu Province, including the retail price of pork market, the purchase price of pigs and the price of piglets, has been declining since March 1998 after experiencing a continuous high price from September 1996 to February 1998 After that, although there are ups and downs, they are also fluctuations at a lower price In the first half of this year, the market prices of the above three products were stable and rising, especially the retail prices of pork market did not fall after the Spring Festival So many people predict optimistically that the rebound period of pork price will come In this regard, according to the analysis of supply and demand factors, experts believe that in the next period of time, especially the new year's day and Spring Festival stage, the pig market shows a steady and small increase trend, but the space for price increase is limited From the aspect of pork supply, since 1995, the annual production of pigs in Jiangsu Province was the lowest in 1997, and the supply of pigs in the market was less, which objectively promoted the recovery of price level At the same time, in 1997, the rate of pig marketing was the lowest, which was related to the expectation of pig farmers for the price to keep rising In the two years since 1998, pork production has continued to rise, which is not only a response to the higher prices of the previous year, but also the result of the increase in the listing rate after the price drop As the price of pig market tends to rise steadily in the first half of this year, the pork production can at least maintain at the current level, which means that the price of pig market in the future will not have much room to rise From the perspective of pork demand, demand constraints are increasing From the perspective of the national pork consumption, the growth slowed down in 1998, and the pork consumption in urban and rural areas in some regions also tended to stabilize or decline For now, even if the purchasing power of society has improved, people's spending on meat will not increase much The annual consumption of pork per capita in Jiangsu Province was basically stable from 1995 to 1999, including 19-20 kg for urban residents and 10-12 kg for rural residents The general trend in the future is that the proportion of pork in the whole meat consumption will decrease In addition, from the perspective of feed prices in the province, it is generally conducive to pig production According to the statistics of the prices of four kinds of pig feed materials (corn, barley, bean cake, etc.) made by the Provincial Department of agriculture and forestry, the average prices of the four kinds of pig feed materials (corn, barley, bean cake, etc.) declined from 1995 to 1999, and stopped falling and rising since the first half of this year, but the increase was very small It is estimated that the feed cost of general pig farmers accounts for about 70% of the total cost of pig raising The existing price of pig feed is still conducive to pig farmers Bfz (author:)