Analysis of international agricultural products market in the first half of 2005 and 2006 Annual Exhibition

Introduction: the Ministry of Agriculture recently released the analysis on the market price and inventory of international agricultural products in the first half of 2005 and the outlook for 2006 The full text is as follows: first, the price of grain, oil and cotton products in the international market fell year on year, while the price of sugar rose （1） The price of wheat is gradually lower, the price of rice is higher and lower, the price of corn is lower and lower, and the price of soybean is rising obviously Wheat: in the first half of the year, the average price of wheat in the international market is 1231 yuan per ton (hard red winter wheat No.1 in the United States, delivery price in the Northwest Pacific port), down 9.4% year on year The price of wheat fell in fluctuation, and the price of each month was generally lower than that of the same period of last year Corn: in the first half of the year, the price of corn in the international market was 804 yuan per ton (US yellow corn No.2, delivery price in the Gulf region), down 22.5% year on year In terms of months, the price fluctuates between 790-830 yuan / ton, and the price level is generally lower than that of the same period last year Soybeans: in the first half of the year, the price of soybeans in the international market was 1997 yuan per ton (US No.1 soybeans, Gulf delivery price), down 30.4% year on year Although the prices in the first half of the year were generally lower than that in the same period of last year, the price level rose month by month Rice: in the first half of the year, the average spot price of rice in the international market was 2218 yuan per ton (FOB Bangkok, including 25% broken rice), up 24.2% year on year The rice price gradually fell after reaching the highest point (2383 yuan / ton) since 2000 in January, but the price of each month was still higher than that of the same period last year (2) Cotton price fluctuated obviously in the second quarter, showing a downward trend In 2005, cotton price in the international market rebounded strongly and reached 10424 yuan / ton in April In the first half of the year, the average price of cotton in the international market was 9968 yuan per ton (UK cotton outlook a index), down 23.2% year on year (3) the prices of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil decreased significantly year on year Soybean oil: in 2005, the prices of soybean oil in the international market showed a slight upward trend, but the prices of each month were generally lower than that of the same period last year The average soybean oil price for half a year was 4416 yuan per ton (FOB ex works Netherlands), down 17.9% year on year By month, soybean oil prices in June reached the highest level this year (4644 yuan), up 7.7% from January Canola oil: in 2005, the price of canola oil in the international market fell slightly, but it was still high In the first half of the year, the average price of rapeseed oil was 5405 yuan per ton (FOB ex works Netherlands), down 5.8% year on year Month by month, except that the price in January is slightly higher than that in the same period last year, the prices in other months are significantly lower than that in the same period last year Palm oil: the price of palm oil in the international market is still in the adjustment period In the first half of the year, the average price was 3436 yuan per ton (CIF European market), down 18.9% year on year (IV) the price of sugar was adjusted at a high level In the first half of the year, the price of sugar in the international market was 2198 yuan (FOB London market contract No.5), up 17.2% year on year, and the price in each month was generally higher than that in the same period last year From January to may, the price is basically stable, and it rose significantly in June (13.1% higher than that in January) (V) the prices of live pigs and beef cattle fluctuated at a high level Live pigs: in the first half of the year, the average price of live pigs (closing price of Chicago Futures Exchange) in the international market was 13259 yuan / ton, up 8.8% year-on-year, still at a high level Month by month, the price has fallen In June, the price was 12053 yuan / ton, down 12.8% from January Beef cattle: in the first half of the year, the average price of beef cattle in the international market was 19450 yuan per ton (closing price of Chicago Futures Exchange), up 12.9% year on year, and the price fluctuated at a high level Month by month, the price of beef cattle is basically stable, and the price of each month is generally higher than that of the same period last year 2 In 2004 / 05, the inventory of grain, cotton and oil in the international market picked up, while the inventory of sugar decreased (1) the inventory of grain picked up According to the forecast of FAO in June 2005, the global grain output in 2004 / 05 (July 2004 June 2005) was 2.054 billion tons, up 8.76% year on year, and the global grain consumption continued to increase by 2.34%, reaching 2.005 billion tons The gap between production and demand has reversed over the years Global grain ending inventory will reach 463 million tons, up 11.54% year on year, and inventory consumption ratio is 23.1% This is the first increase in global grain inventory consumption in recent years (2) cotton inventory is the highest level in the past five years According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in June 2005, the global cotton production in this year (August 2004 July 2005) is 26.13 million tons, an increase of 26.16% Global cotton consumption continued to grow, reaching 23.24 million tons, an increase of 9.26% As the output is larger than the demand, cotton ending inventory rose to 10.53 million tons, an increase of 33.19% The inventory consumption ratio was 45.3%, the highest level in the past five years [NextPage] (3) the stock of vegetable oil depots continued to rise According to the analysis of the report oil seed: world market and trade released by the U.S Department of agriculture in June 2005, in 2004 / 05 (October 2004 September 2005), the global vegetable oil will reach 108 million tons, an increase of 7.36%; the consumption will rise to 106 million tons, an increase of 7.17% As the output of the year exceeds the consumption, the global vegetable oil inventory at the end of the period will continue to rise, reaching 7.25 million tons, up 6.31% year on year (4) sugar inventory continued to decline According to the forecast of FAO and USDA in June 2005, in 2004 / 05 (October 2004 September 2005), the global sugar production will reach 144.8 million tons, an increase of 2.26%; the sugar consumption will reach 145.1 million tons, an increase of 1.83%; the ending inventory will be 35.79 million tons, a decrease of 8.48%, and the situation of tight sugar supply exceeding demand will be eased 3 In 2005 / 06, the stock of grain, cotton, oil and sugar in the international market all fell In 2005 / 06, the grain output in the international market fell slightly, and the consumption grew steadily The gap between production and demand reappeared in that year, resulting in the decline of the final stock of grain in the international market Affected by the price factor, the global cotton output fell, the gap between production and demand was not large, and the inventory decreased slightly The production and demand of vegetable oil increased at the same time, the supply and demand were basically balanced, and the inventory fell slightly Global sugar production and consumption continue to rise, inventory continues to decline, and sugar prices in the international market are expected to remain high (1) grain output fell slightly, consumption grew steadily, and inventory fell According to the forecast of FAO in June 2005, the global grain output in 2005 / 06 (July 2005 June 2006) is 1.996 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.84%; the consumption reaches 2.012 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.34%; the ending inventory will drop to 445 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.02% The emergence of the gap between production and demand and the decline of the end of the period inventory have brought space for the rise of grain prices in the international market (II) both cotton output and inventory decrease, and there is room for cotton price to rise According to the forecast of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in June 2005, in 2005 / 06 (August 2005 July 2006), the global cotton output was 23.38 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.51%; the consumption reached 23.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.04% In that year, the production demand gap was 330000 tons (including 3 million tons of China's gap); the trade volume was 8.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.12% (including 2.8 million Chinese imports Tons, accounting for 34.74% of Global trade volume Ending inventory will fall to 10.19 million tons, down 3.19% Global cotton prices will rise due to increased trade (III) the production and demand of vegetable oil increased synchronously, and the inventory fell slightly According to the analysis of oil seed: world market and trade released by the U.S Department of agriculture in June 2005, in 2005 / 06 (October 2005 September 2006), the global vegetable oil output was 111 million tons, up 3.25% year on year, mainly due to the increase of soybean oil and palm oil output; the consumption was 110 million tons, and the export was 4.257 billion tons, up 4.63% and 5.66% year on year respectively; the ending inventory decreased to 6.96 million tons, up 3.25% year on year Down 4% In terms of varieties, the output growth of soybean oil and sunflower seed oil exceeded the demand growth, ending inventory picked up, and inventory of vegetable oil, palm oil and other varieties declined (IV) sugar production and consumption continue to rise, and inventory continues to decline According to the forecast of FAO and USDA in June 2005, in 2005 / 06 (October 2005 September 2006), the global sugar production (raw sugar) was 149.1 million tons, an increase of 2.95%, mainly from Brazil, Argentina and China; the consumption reached 149.4 million tons; the ending inventory was 34.22 million tons, a decrease of 4.38% The continuous decline of inventory provides support for the rise of sugar price in the international market Note: price data source: Rice: from international economic and trade news; soybean, wheat, corn: from the U.S Department of agriculture; cotton: from British cotton outlook company; vegetable oil, sugar, pig, beef: from international economic and trade news; calculation method: monthly average after summarizing the daily data The exchange rate is monthly average based on the daily selling price of foreign exchange of Bank of China.