Analysis of feed situation in 2001 and prospect in 2002

Introduction: 1 In 2001, China's feed production continued to maintain a good development trend According to the statistics of 28 provinces, regions and cities (excluding Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and Tibet), in the first half of 2001, the total output of feed products reached 36.158 million tons, up 7.7% year on year Among them, there is a good development momentum in feed production in Western China The output of feed products in nine provinces in Western China is 6.272 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the national average The situation of feed production in the second half of the year is generally better than that in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the total output of industrial feed in the whole year will exceed 80 million tons 1 The output of feed products increased steadily, the quality of products improved further, and the structure of feed varieties became more reasonable In 2000, China's feed product output reached 74.29 million tons, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year, of which the total output of compound feed was 59.12 million tons, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year; the total output of concentrated feed was 12.49 million tons, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year; the total output of additive premix was 2.53 million tons, an increase of 13.5% over the previous year In 2001, the total feed output is expected to exceed 80 million tons According to the supervision and spot check results of the national feed monitoring center in 2000, the qualified rate of compound feed in China is basically stable at more than 90%, and the qualified rate of additive premix products is also more than 80% According to the national feed monitoring system for drug monitoring and testing of the quality of self prepared feed and drinking water for commercial feed and breeding enterprises, the unqualified rate of feed health and safety indicators in China in the first half of 2001 was 5.7%, among which the detection rate of illegal drugs was 4%, 2.1% and 2.5% lower than the same period last year respectively With the development of feed industry, feed variety structure is more reasonable China's feed products have developed from a few varieties of pig and chicken feed in 1980s to more than 200 varieties of dozens of series including livestock, aquatic animals, ornamental animals, experimental animals and special economic crops In recent two years, the output of pig feed has decreased, and the proportion in compound feed has decreased relatively; the output of meat and poultry feed is relatively stable, and the proportion has increased slightly; the output of fish and shrimp feed has increased year by year, and the proportion has increased substantially In 2000, the output of pig feed was 21.49 million tons, 8.2% less than that of the highest output of pig feed in 1998 (23.4 million tons), and the proportion of compound feed decreased from 44% in 1991 to 36% in 2000; in 2000, 16.07 million tons of meat and poultry feed increased by 11.5% annually from 1991 to 2000, and the proportion of compound feed increased from 23% in 1991 to 27% in 2000; in 2000, 14.48 million tons of egg and poultry feed increased annually 9.1% in length, accounting for 24-25% of compound feed; 5.04 million tons of fish and shrimp feed in 2000, with an average annual growth of 23.6%, accounting for 9% of compound feed from 3% in 1991; 2.16 million tons of other feed in 2000, accounting for 4-5% of compound feed The change of feed product structure is not only the need of the adjustment of product structure and the transformation of breeding mode, but also the promotion of the structure optimization of breeding industry 2 Steady development of corn in feed raw material industry: corn output increased significantly in 2001, which is close to the normal year According to the analysis of the information center of the Ministry of agriculture, the total grain consumption of China in 2001 was 516.42 million tons, an increase of 1.5% over the previous year Among them, feed grain consumption was 1497.22 million tons, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year, accounting for 29% of the total grain consumption, and the new feed grain consumption accounted for 68.1% of the new grain consumption, that is, nearly 70% of the new grain consumption was used for feed grain consumption The feed material is mainly corn With the rapid development of feed industry and the rapid increase of feed output, the demand for corn is also growing In 1998 / 99, 76.5 million tons of corn was used for feed consumption; in 1999 / 2000, 78.5 million tons; in 2000 / 01, 81.2 million tons, with an average annual growth of 3% As people pay more and more attention to food safety, the quality of feed is becoming more and more serious, which requires further improvement not only in quantity but also in quality Soybean meal: in the common protein raw materials, the nutritional value of soybean meal is second only to that of fish meal, but due to the high price of fish meal, soybean meal has become the most common and important protein raw material in feed Because of its high digestible value, soybean meal is not only used in animal husbandry, but also in aquatic feed and rare animal feed In 1990, the output of soybean meal in China exceeded 4 million tons, and in 1993, the output of soybean meal exceeded 6 million tons A year later, the soybean meal production reached the 7 million ton level Since then, due to the slow development of domestic oil industry and feed industry, soybean meal production has been hovering Until 1998, due to the obvious increase of soybean imports, the total output of soybean meal in China only exceeded 8 million tons So far, the domestic soybean processing and soybean meal production scale has entered a rapid development stage In 1999, the total output of soybean meal in China reached the level of 9 million tons for the first time, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year, among which the output of soybean meal in Heilongjiang, Shandong and Jiangsu were close to 1.7 million tons, 1.6 million tons and 1.9 million tons respectively, and the output of soybean meal in three provinces accounted for 58% of the total output of China In 2001, China's soybean meal production is still showing growth momentum, and the output is expected to be close to 15 million tons Due to the increase of meat and egg demand caused by domestic economic development, it is expected that the output of soybean meal in China will continue to increase in the next few years Since the 1990s, the total consumption of soybean meal in China has increased year by year, but there are differences in the growth rate of soybean meal consumption between years In 1992, the annual consumption of soybean meal in China reached 4 million tons for the first time, and in 1993 it was close to 5.5 million tons Since then, soybean meal consumption has increased at a rate of more than 1 million tons per year In 1996, the total consumption of soybean meal in China was nearly 9 million tons After 1997, the growth rate of soybean meal consumption slowed down obviously Until 1998, the total consumption was only over 10 million tons It is predicted that the total consumption of soybean meal in China will reach 15 million tons in 2001 Fish meal: as one of the main sources of animal protein in livestock and poultry breeding and aquaculture, there is no product that can be completely replaced China is a large country of livestock and poultry breeding and aquaculture, which needs a lot of fish meal every year From 1992 to 1999, the production of fish meal in China showed an obvious upward trend, with an average annual growth of 28.6% Among them, from 1995 to 1999, the production of fish meal in China increased rapidly, with an average annual growth of 41.2% No matter the production equipment, process and product quality have all stepped up to a higher level, especially driven by high profits (the price of fish meal is more than 5000 yuan / ton) in 1998, more than 150 fish meal production lines have been added within one year, and the production capacity has almost doubled In 1999, the output of fish meal reached 750000 tons, the highest in history In addition, due to the strengthening of the production and management of fish meal and the improvement of the quality and reputation of domestic fish meal, especially in recent years, due to the success of the development of fish resources, the quantity and quality of domestic fish meal has made considerable progress In 1998, the production of domestic fish meal exceeded the import of fish meal for the first time, becoming the main force of fish meal for feed However, the production situation of domestic fish meal in recent two years is not optimistic, and the main factors are as follows: first, it is affected by the decline of international fish meal price; second, it is affected by the decline of fish resources; third, it is affected by the decline of livestock product price 3 The production of feed additives has developed to a certain extent, but still lags behind the demand of feed processing industry as a whole China's feed additive industry started in the early 1980s, with an annual output of more than 250000 tons and an annual output value of 5 billion yuan It has been able to produce about 100 products in 18 categories, including vitamins, amino acids, mineral elements and other non nutritional additives More than 80 varieties have been approved for use, of which only more than 40 are domestically produced and standardized, and the rest are foreign products approved for import Compared with developed countries in terms of variety and quantity, the imported feed additives are far from meeting the needs of the development of feed industry in China At present, there are more than 1000 kinds of additive factories in China Most of the additives, such as lysine, methionine, vitamins, mineral microelements, mildew inhibitors and antioxidants, can be produced by themselves In feed vitamins, except biotin, other vitamins can be produced by themselves, among which vitamin C, B1 and B6 are also exported At present, feed mineral microelements are basically self-sufficient, among which feed grade dicalcium phosphate has developed rapidly in recent years In addition, in recent years, the development and use of Chinese herbal feed additives have made remarkable achievements, but the quantity can not meet the needs of feed processing industry, and the quality is not very stable The backward development of feed additives, resulting in the single variety and insufficient quantity of products, will be an important factor restricting the development of compound feed production in China in the medium and long term, and also one of the main problems facing the development of feed industry Although China's feed additive industry has developed rapidly in recent years, compared with developed countries, it is still at a relatively backward level, mainly reflected in: (1) fewer varieties and insufficient quantity There are about 100 varieties approved for use in China, while there are about 250 in the United States, about 120 in Japan and about 260-270 in the European community In addition, the total output is low, and many varieties, including raw materials, are imported (2) Lack of funds and backward technology Based on the important role of feed additive in feed industry, developed countries take it as a high-tech project and attach great importance to its research and development China's economic and technological strength is relatively backward compared with developed countries High-tech, high value-added technology intensive products, such as amino acids, vitamins, antibiotics, etc., are still in the situation of high cost and dependence on imports Although there are more than one thousand feed additive manufacturers in China, they are small in scale, most of them are produced repeatedly, with serious segmentation and nonstandard industry management (3) Lack of innovation and imitation At present, the varieties produced in our country are mainly imitations with little innovation Due to the characteristics of low pollution, non-toxic and broad-spectrum, bioengineering products and drug additives have a good development prospect Therefore, research and development should be strengthened 2 In 2001, the price of feed products was stable, the market price of feed raw materials fluctuated greatly, and the price of feed additives fell 1 This year, the price of feed products was relatively stable, but the retail price of pig feed was higher than the average level of last year, from the highest price of 1.88 yuan / kg in April 1998 to the lowest price of 1.41 yuan / kg in November 2000, a decrease of 25% In the first half of 2001, the price of pig feed rose, but not much Since August, the price of pig feed has fallen, but it is higher than that of the same period last year In general, the price of pig feed in 2001 was higher than that in the same period last year The change trend of feed price of meat and layer is basically the same, but the feed price of broiler is always higher than that of layer From 1997 to 2000, the annual average price of meat and layer feed declined, from 2.27 yuan / kg and 2.02 yuan / kg in 1997 to 1.84 yuan / kg and 1.67 yuan / kg in 2000, with an average annual decline of 5.1% and 4.6% respectively From December 2000, the price of meat and layer feed began to rise Generally speaking, the price of meat and layer feed in 2001 was higher than that in the same period last year So far, the price is relatively stable with little fluctuation In terms of price, the price of feed products is still at a low level in recent years Analysis of the reasons: first, due to the current sluggish market of aquaculture products, feed enterprises should make it beneficial to farmers to stabilize the breeding