Analysis of feed production situation in China from January to June 2005

Introduction: feed industry production from January to June According to the report of some provincial (District, city) feed work offices and the production statistics of fixed-point tracking feed production enterprises, it is estimated that the total output of feed industrial products in China in January June 2005 will be 38.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, including 29.4 million tons of compound feed, a year-on-year increase of 5%; 7.75 million tons of concentrated feed, a year-on-year increase of 3%; 1.45 million tons of premixed feed, a year-on-year increase of 5% Up 30% From January to June 2005, in the compound feed, the pig compound feed increased steadily, the egg and poultry compound feed basically kept stable, and the meat and poultry compound feed showed a restorative growth; the demand for the waterfowl compound feed and the aquatic compound feed increased significantly with the rapid growth of aquaculture Due to the stable supply of feed materials and the rapid development of large-scale breeding after the grain harvest in 2004, the market consumption of concentrated feed is increasing slowly The main reason for the rapid growth of the use of additive premix is that after the profit space of premix products continues to shrink, the production level of additive premix specialized production enterprises increases, the after-sales service continues to extend, the specialized production cooperation of small and medium-sized feed enterprises, and the increase of large-scale feeding make the specialized demand of additive premix increase II Price change of compound feed for fattening pigs from January to June unit: yuan / ton; average price in February, March, April, June 2005 1966 1881 1950 2041 1909 1905 1942 2004 1787 1743 1863 2127 2450 2475 2074 increased by% 10.07.94.7-4.0-22.1-23.0 -6.4 price of compound feed in peak period of laying hens from January to June unit: yuan / ton January February March April June average price in 2005 1795 1813 1778 1863 1915 1920 1847 2004 1694 1699 1766 1859 1763 1875 1776 increase% 6.06.70.20.28.62.4 4 4.0 Price of compound feed in the period from January to June unit: yuan / ton January February March April May June average price 2005 2096 2069 2077 2124 2135 2140 2107 2004 1939 2020 2054 2173 2250 2125 2094 increase% 8.12.41.1-2.3-5.10.7 0.6 change in raw material supply and demand In the first half of this year, the market price of feed raw materials is relatively stable, and the price fluctuation is less than the same level in 2003 and 2004, which provides conditions for stable production of feed The overall price level of soybean meal is lower than that of the same period; the price of corn is stable and falling In June, affected by climate factors, the price of corn began to rise The price of imported fish meal keeps a relatively stable high price Methionine has declined along the way due to weak market demand and changes in supply capacity Due to the increase in the number of domestic production enterprises, the rapid expansion of capacity and the increase in the total supply of lysine, lysine has been operating at a low price Monthly average price of soybean meal unit: yuan / ton January February March May June 2005 2420 2650 2600 2550 2630 2004 2688 2766 3323 3400 3116 2650 growth rate% - 10.0 - 16.1 - 20.3 - 23.5 - 18.2 - 0.8 monthly average price of corn unit: yuan / ton January February March April May June 2005 1180 1160 1160 1200 1190 1330 2004 1250 1180 1290 1420 1350 1320 increase and decrease rate% - 5.6-1.7-10.1-15.5-11.9 0.8 monthly average of fish meal in major ports in China unit: yuan / ton January February March May June 2005 5700 5600 6050 6300 6100 6050 2004 5394 5520 5825 6246 6128 5700 increase / decrease% 5.71.43.9 0.9-0.56.1 monthly average price of methionine unit: yuan / kg January February March May June 2005 22 21.5 20.8 19.2 18.7 24.5, 22, 24, 22, 21.5, 21.9, 2004 increase or decrease rate% -8.20.0-10.4-5.5-10.7-14.6 L-lysine monthly average price unit: yuan / kg, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 2005, 14, 13, 12.8, 12.3, 12.1, 25, 22, 31.5, 27, 21.7, 21.9, 2004 Increase and decrease range% -44.0-45.5-58.7-52.6-43.3-44.7 IV import and export of feed raw materials From January to June 2005, China imported 12.01 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 33.6% The market soybean supply is sufficient, so the soybean stock of domestic oil enterprises is relatively large In addition, the growth of feed production and consumption is far lower than the growth of soybean supply The overall supply and demand of soybean meal is balanced, and the supply is slightly higher than the demand Corn exports reached 4.93 million tons, up 202% year on year From January to may, the import of lysine was 24674 tons, a decrease of 1.7%, and the export was 15825 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%; from January to may, the total import of methionine was 25266 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15% From January to may, 525000 tons of fish meal were imported, up 80% year on year.