Analysis of feed market in the first three quarters of 2005

Introduction: Content abstract: compared with the same period of last year, in the first three quarters of this year, the export of corn increased greatly and the import decreased; the export of soybean meal and feed fish meal decreased and the import increased; the import of lysine and methionine decreased and the export increased In the first three quarters, although the price of feed products declined, it was still at a high price in recent years The average prices of corn, soybean meal, lysine and methionine were lower than that of the same period of last year, except that the average prices of fish meal were slightly higher than that of the same period of last year 1 The import and export situation of feed raw materials in the first three quarters 1 The export of corn increased, the import decreased, and the export of corn increased, mainly to South Korea According to customs statistics, the total export volume of corn in the first three quarters of this year was 7.1534 million tons, an increase of 279.95% over the same period of last year The main export destinations include South Korea (4.7966 million tons), Iran (981700 tons), Japan (5903 million tons), Malaysia (426600 tons) and North Korea (259200 tons) The export volume of corn in September was 543500 tons, 13.4 times of the same period of last year (40600 tons) The main corn export provinces are Jilin (4.0139 million tons), Liaoning (1.0586 million tons) and Heilongjiang (1.0447 million tons), accounting for 56.11%, 14.80% and 14.60% of China's total corn export respectively The corn exports of these three provinces account for 85.51% of the total corn exports of China Corn is mainly imported from Vietnam and the United States In the first three quarters of this year, China's corn import decreased, with a total import volume of 1263.73 tons, 37.48% lower than that of the same period last year It is mainly imported from Vietnam (619.00 tons) and the United States (412.55 tons) Among them, the import of corn in September was 482.92 tons, a decrease of 54.51% over the same period of last year Provinces and cities that import corn mainly include Yunnan (816.91 tons), Zhejiang (199.52 tons) and Shanghai (164.69 tons), accounting for 64.64%, 15.79% and 13.03% of China's total corn imports respectively These three provinces accounted for 93.46% of China's total corn imports 2 The export of soybean meal decreased, and the import of soybean meal increased, mainly exported to Japan In the first three quarters, China exported 463500 tons of soybean meal, a decrease of 5.01% over the same period last year, mainly to Japan (41965 tons), South Korea (16900 tons), Malaysia (9900 tons), North Korea (775 tons) and the United States (5100 tons) In September, the export volume of soybean meal was 16400 tons, a decrease of 63.34% over the same period of last year The main export provinces of soybean meal in China are Hebei (186000 tons), Liaoning (132000 tons) and Jiangsu (116300 tons), respectively accounting for 40.14%, 28.47% and 25.09% of the total export of soybean meal in China The total export of soybean meal in the three provinces accounts for 93.93% of the total export of soybean meal in China Soybean meal imports increased, mainly from India In the first three quarters of 2005, China imported 31000 tons of soybean meal, an increase of 77.42% over the same period of last year, mainly from India (26900 tons) The provinces and cities that import soybean meal mainly include Fujian (16500 tons), Shanghai (70000 tons) and Hunan (4300 tons), accounting for 54.85%, 23.41% and 14.33% of China's total soybean meal imports, respectively The total soybean meal imports of the three provinces and cities accounted for 92.59% of China's total soybean meal imports [NextPage] 3 The import of feed fish meal increased, while the export decreased Feed fish meal was mainly imported from Peru and Chile In the first three quarters, China imported 1.3944 million tons of feed fish meal, an increase of 77.10% over the same period last year Mainly from Peru (986200 tons), Chile (235800 tons), the United States (49400 tons) and Russia (24700 tons) In September, China imported 165100 tons of feed fish meal, down 15.31% from the same period last year The provinces and cities that import feed fish meal mainly include: Fujian (367800 tons), Guangdong (267100 tons), Beijing (202000 tons), Zhejiang (127400 tons) and Liaoning (96000 tons), respectively, accounted for 26.38%, 19.15%, 14.48%, 9.13% and 6.88% of China's total feed fish meal imports, accounting for 76.03% of China's total feed fish meal imports Feed fish meal exports decreased, mainly to Asian countries In the first three quarters of 2005, China exported 2544.43 tons of feed fish meal, a decrease of 32.78% over the same period of last year, mainly to Korea (1062.36 tons), Indonesia (492.00 tons) and Japan (403.00 tons) In September, the export volume of feed fish meal was 255.00 tons, a decrease of 68.60% over the same period of last year The main export provinces of feed fish meal in China are Liaoning, Zhejiang, Shandong, Henan and Fujian, accounting for 43.72%, 15.85%, 14.58%, 12.73% and 11.40% of the total export of feed fish meal in China The five provinces accounted for 98.27% of China's total fish meal exports 4 The import of lysine decreased, while the export increased and the import of lysine decreased In the first three quarters, China imported 42800 tons of lysine, a decrease of 19.51% over the same period last year, mainly from Indonesia (12500 tons), South Korea (12200 tons), the United States (90000 tons) and Brazil (4700 tons) In September, China's import of lysine was 3500t, a decrease of 50.40% over the same period last year Provinces and cities that import lysine mainly include Guangdong (14200 tons), Shanghai (6800 tons), Beijing (4900 tons), Jiangsu (3700 tons) and Henan (2700 tons), accounting for 33.15%, 15.85%, 11.56%, 8.78% and 6.35% of China's total lysine import respectively The import volume of lysine in these five provinces and cities accounts for 75.69% of the total import volume of lysine in China Lysine exports increased, mainly to the Netherlands In the first three quarters of 2005, China exported 38800 tons of lysine, an increase of 124.26% over the same period last year, mainly to the Netherlands (13400 tons), the United States (4000 tons) and Belgium (1900 tons) The export volume of lysine in September was 9200 tons, an increase of 612.65% over the same period of last year Jilin Province is the main export province of lysine in China, with an export volume of 31800 tons, accounting for 81.96% of the total export of lysine in China 5 The import of methionine decreased and the export increased, mainly from Japan In the first three quarters of 2005, China imported 51100 tons of methionine, a decrease of 20.06% over the same period of last year, mainly from Japan (20000 tons), the United States (9900 tons), Belgium (7900 tons) and France (70000 tons) Among them, the import of methionine in September was 7900 tons, a decrease of 22.78% over the same period of last year The provinces and cities that import methionine mainly include Shandong (12300 tons), Guangdong (7700 tons), Jiangsu (7100 tons), Tianjin (6300 tons) and Beijing (5900 tons), accounting for 24.12%, 15.12%, 13.87%, 12.34% and 11.53% of China's total methionine import respectively The methionine imports of these five provinces and cities accounted for 76.98% of the total methionine imports of China Methionine exports increased In the first three quarters of 2005, China exported 487.63 tons of methionine, an increase of 49.61% over the same period of last year, mainly to Belgium (123.93 tons), North Korea (79.15 tons), the United States (74.55 tons) and Iran (60.00 tons) In September, China's methionine export volume was 51.22 tons, an increase of 18.43% over the same period last year The provinces and cities that export methionine in China are mainly Jiangsu (133.53 tons), Guangxi (105.40 tons), Liaoning (79.65 tons), Beijing (50.85 tons) and Hebei (26.22 tons), accounting for 27.38%, 21.61%, 16.33%, 10.43% and 5.38% of the total amount of methionine export in China The methionine exports of these five provinces and cities accounted for 81.14% of China's total methionine exports [NextPage] 2 Feed price analysis (1) feed product price 1 In the first three quarters of 2005, the feed price of fattening pigs continued to decline, from 1.96 yuan per kilogram (the same below) to 1.86 yuan in September, down 5.10% In the third quarter, the average price of fattening pig feed was 1.87 yuan, 2.60% lower than the same period last year The average price of fattening pig feed in the first three quarters was 1.90 yuan, 2.27% higher than that in the same period of last year In terms of regional price, in the first three quarters of 2005 in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Hainan and other provinces, the price of fattening pig feed remained high; in Qinghai, Shanxi, Liaoning, Hebei, Jilin, Shandong and other provinces, the price was low Source: in the second and third quarters of the animal husbandry bureau of the Ministry of agriculture, the price of broiler compound feed first rose and then fell, while the price of layer compound feed fluctuated and fell, but it was higher than the same period of last year The price of compound feed for meat and layer increased from 2.14 yuan and 1.96 yuan in January to 2.21 yuan and 1.98 yuan in February, with an increase rate of 3.27% and 1.02% respectively, and then the price decreased By June, the price was 2.16 yuan and 1.93 yuan, with a decrease rate of 2.26% and 2.52% respectively In the first three quarters, the average price of broiler feed was 2.16 yuan, 1.46% higher than the same period of last year, 19.39% higher than the same period of 2003; in the first three quarters, the average price of layer feed was 1.95 yuan, 0.98% higher than the same period of last year, 17.74% higher than the same period of 2003 From the perspective of regional price, the provinces and cities with higher feed price of meat and layer are Yunnan, Hainan, Guizhou, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, etc.; the provinces with lower price are Qinghai, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, etc Source: from the change trend of feed product price in the first three quarters of the animal husbandry bureau of the Ministry of agriculture, it can be seen that feed price is declining this year, but it is still at the high price in recent years [NextPage] (II) feed raw material price 1 Corn prices in the first three quarters rose steadily The prices in the production areas rose first and then stabilized the domestic market The average prices in the first three quarters were 1048.2 yuan per ton (the same below) and 1272.9 yuan per ton, 10.02% and 11.03% lower than that in the same period of last year, respectively, but 8.87% and 12.26% higher than that in the same period of 2003 In the third quarter, the average price of corn production area and sales area was 1100.8 yuan and 1296.5 yuan respectively, with a difference of about 200 yuan per ton, 7.93% and 10.32% lower than the same period of last year, and 12.71% and 13.15% higher than the same period of 2003 In the first three quarters, the general situation of China's corn market was good, and corn prices were basically stable and bullish After September, although some regions were affected by the listing of new corn harvest and the market price fluctuated, the overall market remained stable and slightly increased Source: international market of national grain and Oil Information Center: in the first half of 2005, the price of corn in the international market showed a trend of low volatility The most prominent feature is that the supply pressure always accompanies the market and becomes an important factor affecting the price of corn According to the forecast of the United States Department of agriculture, the corn production of the United States is expected to reach 270 million tons in 2005 / 06, second only to 300 million tons in the previous year In 2005 / 06, the world corn output and ending inventory were 663 million tons and 112 million tons respectively, second only to the level of 708 million tons and 128 million tons in the previous year, and oversupply is still the big environment of the international corn market At present, it is the peak of corn harvest in the United States Reports from major Midwest producing states show that the per unit yield is better than expected, which also puts spot sales pressure and seasonal pressure on corn prices In the later period, the possibility of corn price rebounding or sharply rising in the United States is not too great, and after corn harvest, the impact of supply pressure on the market will be more prominent 2 Soybean meal price in the first three quarters