Analysis of egg supply and demand in the second half of the year (8.16)

OA show ('918 '); looking at the egg production and marketing situation in the second half of the year, in addition to the slight decrease in production due to high temperature in July and August, the total supply and demand is basically balanced, with its main characteristics: first, the stock of laying hens has declined Due to the low price of eggs in the first half of the year, and the impact of the epidemic In April, may and June this year, laying hens in some regions were eliminated ahead of time, and the over high stock has declined According to the spot survey of egg farms of professional households in Haian, Dongtai and other places, the number of laying hens in mid June decreased by 30.01% year on year However, the stock of young laying hens and young chickens kept at a normal level, and the production reserve foundation was good Second, the high temperature in North China is ahead of schedule and the drought is serious this year Since the middle of June this year, there has been not only a high temperature climate of about 40oC in North China, but also a serious drought and water shortage In the late June, the death rate of laying hens increased, the laying rate decreased, and the egg weight decreased Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces are the key production areas of fresh eggs, whose output accounts for 43% of the total output of the country, which will have some impact on the market volume of commercial eggs in July and August But with the adjustment of price leverage, the market will not be in short supply Third, the recovery of feed price from the trough will affect the increase of egg cost According to the spot survey from Dongtai, North Jiangsu Province, the price of corn was 0.49 yuan (per 500g), soybean meal 1.16 yuan and fish meal 1.85 yuan in the middle of June, up 4.3%, 1.2% and 3.9% respectively from the same period last month According to information provided by relevant departments, corn prices are likely to continue to recover in the second half of the year However, the prices of Chen corn and Chen Xiangu are still relatively low Based on various factors, the general concept is that the over high laying hens in the second half of the year have been reduced In addition to a slight decrease in egg sources and a slight increase in price in July and August due to the high temperature season, the remaining months are for oversold activities In the second half of this year, the production and sales of eggs are basically balanced, and the low purchase and sales price may slightly increase, but there will be no big breakthrough; because the price of eggs dropped too much in the first half of this year, the annual purchase and sales price of eggs is expected to drop by about 20% compared with the previous year China feed industry information network 8ex (author:)