Analysis of domestic soybean market

Introduction: Since the beginning of this year, soybean has become the focus of the same level as corn From the arrival of soybean cattle trend to the stable operation of soybean price, to the sluggish rise of soybean and so on, there are endless comments in the industry The price trend of soybean market also moves forward in this kind of comments When the new soybean comes into the market, the author discusses the promotion factors and inhibition of soybean market The effects and long-term effects were reviewed as follows: first, the comparative benefits decreased, the sowing area decreased, and the yield was affected 1 According to the statistical data of relevant departments, the price ratio of corn to soybean in the production area is 1:1.87 According to the soybean production level and production cost, the soybean price is obviously low Despite the influence of the national macro policy, the "corn soybean" rotation plan was implemented in 2000 to reduce the corn planting area and improve the soybean planting area However, due to the relatively low benefit of planting soybean, the farmers planted soybean In 2001, the sown area of soybean in China decreased again, about 8.7 million hectares, nearly 600000 hectares less than that in 2000, a decrease of about 6.5% The decrease of sown area is bound to affect the output this autumn, thus providing an opportunity for the price rise 2 Since the beginning of spring this year, Northeast China, North China and other places have suffered from drought, and the spring and summer sowing of crops have been affected After the late sowing date of soybean, the emergence rate has decreased, and the delayed growth period is also the main factor of the early frost of Northeast Soybean in the near future It is reported that affected by the early frost, production is expected to decline again According to the latest forecast data from the U.S Department of agriculture, China's soybean production is expected to decrease to about 15 million tons in 2001, about 400000 tons less than the previous year, a decrease of 2.8% 2、 "Agricultural genetically modified organisms safety management regulations" announced that the number of soybean imports decreased significantly 1 Since June of this year when the state promulgated the regulations on the safety management of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the pace of China's import of soybeans has slowed down, and the number of imports has decreased significantly In some areas, even the phenomenon of soybean import fault has appeared Take the import of American soybeans as an example, from 1.24 million tons and 1.06 million tons in April and may before the promulgation of the regulations, to 153000 tons in June The supply of soybeans has shifted to domestic soybeans, the market supply has decreased significantly, and there is room for upward price 2 Recently, the state has implemented strict management on the quality problems of imported soybeans, that is, after the imported soybeans arrive at the port, they must go through two inspections Before the inspection report is sent out, the ships cannot enter the port for unloading, but the genetically modified soybeans are even more strict The purchasers must be the manufacturers where the unloading is located, while the foreign businesses cannot enter the port for unloading, which undoubtedly increases the import soybean yield This has built a good foundation for the rising soybean price 3 Compared with American soybeans, China's soybeans have higher production cost and lower oil yield, but they are all non genetically modified products with high protein content European countries refuse to accept genetically modified products With people's pursuit of food quality and attention to soybean nutrition, non genetically modified soybeans will gradually be recognized and favored by everyone, which is larger than genetically modified soybeans The price difference of soybeans will also increase At present, no genetically modified ingredients have been found in soybeans produced in China It is believed that the status of non genetically modified soybeans in China will inevitably improve and there is potential in export 3、 The increasing demand promotes the price rise Domestic: in recent years, the rapid development of animal husbandry in China has driven the strong demand for soybean meal, and the consumption structure is also undergoing significant changes The demand for refined salad oil has increased, which has stimulated the rapid development of soybean pressing industry The soybean processing capacity has been expanding, and the demand for soybean has been increasing rapidly According to the data provided by relevant materials, the total consumption of soybean in 1999 / 2000 in China The demand is about 22.9 million tons, the consumption in 2000 / 2001 is about 26.4 million tons, and the consumption in 2001 / 02 is expected to be about 29.6 million tons International: at present, the global soybean oil import is decreasing year by year, while the soybean import is increasing substantially The global soybean crushing is transferring to the soybean oil consuming countries, which undoubtedly provides new business opportunities for the soybean market, and the demand will continue to increase, which is conducive to the upward price 4、 Inventory pressure eased and prices rose In recent years, due to the rapid growth of soybean demand in China, the supply of soybean market is relatively insufficient The country has to use the existing inventory to alleviate the tight supply of the market, the inventory pressure has been reduced, and the opportunity for soybean price to rise is ripe Negative inhibition: Domestic: with the successful conclusion of China's WTO accession negotiation on September 17, the long-awaited wish of the Chinese people was finally realized, but the impact of WTO accession on China's agriculture is also what we have to face After WTO accession, China's grain market will gradually open up, while the domestic soybean production and demand gap is serious, providing foreign traders with business opportunities, high-quality and low-cost Soybean will flow into our country in large quantities, which will have a strong impact on the domestic soybean market International: according to the forecast data of the U.S Department of agriculture, due to the impact of the global soybean price rise, the soybean area in South America increased by 1.25 million hectares in 2001 / 02, reaching 27.5 million hectares The increase of soybean output in South America has become a foregone conclusion Although the early climate is unfavorable to crop growth, it has little impact on soybean output, which will impact the soybean price in the later international market, and will impact the soybean price in the later period The price of soybean in China is unfavorable Long term effects: Although the soybean market is facing various impacts after China's accession to the WTO, it will play a far-reaching role in broadening the field of grain circulation, strengthening market competition and promoting the optimization of operation of grain enterprises for a long time China's soybean market will gradually integrate with the international market, change the management thinking, adjust the planting structure and gradually weaken the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the soybean market to promote China's soybean industry is developing continuously Considering all factors, after the new soybean is listed, the soybean market will bear great pressure, and the price will mainly fluctuate lower However, in the long run, the international and domestic soybean market environment is getting better, and with this improvement, the soybean price in China will be optimistic again.