Analysis of domestic pig market this winter and next spring

Introduction: a review of the changes in pig prices in the first three quarters under the condition of market economy, the changes in commodity prices are a comprehensive reflection of the changes in value, production, sales and supply-demand relations In the first three quarters of this year, the purchase and sale prices of pigs and pork rose quarter by quarter According to the average of 30 provinces (regions), the national pig purchase price: 7.79 yuan in the first quarter (unit price is measured as per kilogram, the same below), 8.68 yuan in the second quarter and 9.32 yuan in the third quarter, up 28.8%, 49.1% and 44.9% respectively compared with the same period last year; the pork sales price: 12.55 yuan in the first quarter, 13.36 yuan in the second quarter and 14.49 yuan in the third quarter, up 21.5%, 35.8% and 36.7% respectively compared with the same period last year According to the analysis of price data, there are three characteristics of changes in pig price and meat price in the first three quarters of this year First, the increase of pig purchase price in main production areas is greater than the national average increase in the same period Taking the third quarter as an example, the average purchase price of pigs in six production areas of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui was 9.50 yuan, up 49.6% year on year, 4.7 percentage points higher than the national average in the same period Second, the increase of pork prices in the main sales areas was larger than the average increase of the whole country in the same period Taking the third quarter as an example, the average selling price of pork in four municipalities directly under the central government of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing was 15.24 yuan, up 40.7% year-on-year, 4 percentage points higher than the national average over the same period Third, the increase of pork price is obviously smaller than that of pig price From January to September, the average sale price of pork in China was 13.47 yuan, up 31.3% year-on-year, and the average purchase price of pig in China was 8.60 yuan, up 41.2% year-on-year The increase in the sale price was 9.9 percentage points less than the increase in the purchase price In addition to a small amount of tax reduction factors, the price difference between purchase, transportation, processing and circulation was also an important reason This not only supports production and consumption, but also benefits the operation of all circulation links The trend of pig price in this winter and next spring tends to stabilize After five quarters of recovery, the purchase price and sales price of pig across the country have fallen slightly since October on the basis of September According to the average of 30 provinces and cities in China, the purchase price of pigs and pork in October decreased by 1.25% and 0.53% respectively compared with that in September; in addition, according to the data of some provinces and cities, the purchase price of pigs and pork decreased by 3.81% and 5.67% compared with that in October This is a specific reflection of a slight improvement in the supply of pigs and pork According to the preliminary forecast, although there will be a small change in the price of pigs this winter and next spring, the price level is expected to remain generally stable on the basis of the current price First, the current pig price level is high, the breeders have good returns, and the farmers' confidence in raising pigs is enhanced According to relevant data, at present, the national pig price is still at a high level, and the ratio of pig to grain is about 1:6.5 According to the current purchase price and feed price of pigs, the income of raising pigs is better, and farmers' enthusiasm for raising pigs is improved In recent half a year, the transaction price of piglets has remained high In October, the national average transaction price of piglets was 15.94 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 18.1% over the same period of last year, higher than the national average price of pork of 5.98% over the same period This shows that farmers' pig raising confidence and enthusiasm have increased, and the pig stock is expected to be basically stable and slightly increased Second, the increase of grain production and the fall of grain price and feed price will be beneficial to the reduction of feeding cost and the promotion of pig production According to the prediction of authoritative departments, China's total grain output is expected to reach 455 million tons this year, which is about 20 million tons more than last year After the new grain went on the market, the price of grain has decreased slightly Pig is a kind of livestock which mainly feeds feed grain The increase of grain production and the decrease of grain price are very beneficial to the development of pig raising In recent years, with a large number of new corn on the market and the rotation selling of old corn in some regions, the national corn price has gradually dropped, about 30 yuan or 2.5% per ton compared with the previous period In addition, the price of protein feed, such as soybean meal, has also declined, which will help to reduce the cost of feeding and promote the development of pig industry Third, the growth of pork sales and smooth circulation in urban and rural markets will also promote the development of pig production This winter and spring is the peak season of pork sales, with relatively large demand Especially in recent years, with the rapid development of economy, people's income generally increased, social purchasing power continued to improve, and pork consumption also increased year by year In the 10 years from 1993 to 2003, the average annual increase of social retail sales of pork in Shanghai was 4.43% In 2004, due to the impact of "bird flu", the supply pressure increased and the sales volume was on the high side It is estimated that the annual increase will be about 7% (including 10.7% in the first quarter, 8.9% in the second quarter, 5.2% in the third quarter, and 3-4% in the fourth quarter) According to the investigation of some experts and scholars, the main consumer of pork in China is rural areas This is in line with the actual situation of our country First of all, the rural population still accounts for the majority According to a recent announcement by relevant departments, there are 798 million rural people and 502 million urban people in China The former accounts for 61% and the latter 39% Secondly, at present, the pork consumption of rural population is relatively low, with great potential for growth in the future In particular, this year, the party and the government issued a series of policies to promote grain production and support agriculture It is expected that the cash income of farmers in the whole year will increase by about 10% compared with last year, which will certainly promote the growth of rural purchasing power, and of course, increase some pork consumption The growth of pork sales will also boost pig production           Of course, we should also be aware that China has a large population, and the annual growth rate is about 10 million people Although this year's grain production is higher than last year's, it is a recovery recovery after years of continuous production reduction It will take years of efforts to recover to the highest level in history and achieve basic self-sufficiency in grain Although pig production has slightly improved, the consumption growth in the domestic market has increased Potential cannot be ignored The author thinks that from the perspective of the whole country, the source of pigs is still not very loose Although the current price of pigs is relatively high, it is expected that the price of pigs will not fall sharply this winter and spring.