Analysis of domestic feed market in 2002

Introduction: new page 1 according to the information provided by the Ministry of agriculture, 2002 In, the export of feed raw materials including corn and soybean meal was higher than that of the same period of last year, and the import was lower than that of the same period of last year, showing a good momentum of development; the prices of feed products, including the compound feed for fattening pigs, meat and layers, all showed a downward trend, lower than that of the same period of last year The price of corn is relatively stable, but the price of soybean meal and fish meal fluctuates greatly Except that the annual average price of fish meal is higher than that of the same period of last year, the price of corn and soybean meal is lower than that of the same period of last year From January to September, the market prices of lysine and methionine were relatively stable, but they rose rapidly with the increase of international market prices Wq51 The development situation of China's feed industry WQ5 according to incomplete statistics of the national feed work office, from January to June 2002, the output of China's feed products reached 32.55 million tons, basically the same as the same period of last year, including 24 million tons of compound feed, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; 7 million tons of concentrated feed, an increase of 10%; 1.55 million tons of premixed feed, an increase of 15% It is predicted that the total consumption of soybean meal in 2002 / 03 will reach the highest level in history, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, among which the domestic feed consumption is expected to be 15.2 million tons, with an increase of 5% WQ5 2 Import and export of feed raw materials WQ5 (1) import and export of corn data provided by WQ5 General Administration of Customs shows that from January to November 2002, China exported 9.766 million tons of corn, an increase of 4.43 million tons, an increase of 83%, of which 5.23 million tons were exported to South Korea, accounting for 53.53% of the total export; 2.28 million tons were exported to Malaysia, accounting for 23.34% of the total export It exports 250000 tons to Vietnam, accounting for 2.61% of the total export; 230000 tons to Japan, accounting for 2.35% of the total export In November, the export of corn reached 1.349 million tons, an increase of 1.86 times over the same period last year It is estimated that the export of corn in December will reach 1.2-1.3 million tons; the annual export volume reached 11 million tons, and the import volume is only 10000 tons WQ5 China's corn export position in the international market is increasingly consolidated, and has become the second largest corn export country in the world The corn export shows a good momentum of development, mainly reflected in: first, the export price continues to increase At the beginning of 2002, the FOB price of China's corn export was 93-95 US dollars / ton With the rising price of corn in the international market, the price of China's corn also kept rising, up to 120 US dollars / ton, which is still stable at 105 US dollars / ton 2 The scope of export is expanding In 2002, the traditional market share of corn in South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan, North Korea and other Southeast Asian and South Asian countries increased, while it was also exported to South Africa, Zimbabwe and other countries; 3 The export volume increased rapidly In the world corn trade in 2002, the export momentum of China's corn is very strong, much more than the estimated figures at the beginning of the year The substantial growth of WQ5 corn export has supported the domestic corn price, alleviated the inventory and financial pressure, eased the problem of farmers selling grain, and improved the income of food and agriculture WQ5 (2) soybean meal import and export data provided by WQ5 General Administration of Customs shows that from January to November 2002, China exported 955600 tons of soybean meal, a year-on-year increase of 377.68%, including 561700 tons to Japan, 133100 tons to South Korea, 118800 tons to Malaysia, 34800 tons to Thailand and 32300 tons to Vietnam In November, it exported 61400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.09% WQ5 imports 650 tons of soybean meal from January to November, 350 tons from Taiwan and 300 tons from the Netherlands WQ5 China began to import a large amount of soybean meal in 1995 From 1997 to 1998, the import of soybean meal reached a peak of more than 4 million tons However, since 1999, as the state began to impose a value-added tax of 13% on the soybean meal import, the soybean meal import volume has declined sharply, while the domestic oil processing capacity has gradually increased, and the soybean meal export volume has begun to grow slowly In the second half of 2001, the total supply of domestic soybean meal was surplus Since 2002, the State Administration of Taxation has adjusted the export tax rebate policy of soybean meal, increasing the export tax rebate rate of soybean meal from 5% to 13% Therefore, in 2002, soybean meal export showed a rapid growth momentum WQ5 (3) import and export of feed fish meal From January to November, the total import volume was 928900 tons, an increase of 15.26% year on year, including over 628000 tons from Peru, 153600 tons from Chile, 62900 tons from the United States, 43100 tons from Russia and 18600 tons from New Zealand WQ5 exported 241 tons of fish meal in November, up 41.08% year on year From January to November, the cumulative export of fish meal was 3491 tons, up 123.36% year on year, including 1136.5 tons to North Korea, 1039.5 tons to Vietnam, 785.5 tons to Japan and 200 tons to Indonesia The main reasons for the increase of WQ5 fish meal import are as follows: first, fish meal is the most ideal protein source at present, especially indispensable in aquatic feed With the growth of feed production year by year, the demand is also increasing year by year; 2 According to the resource conditions of our country and the management methods of fish meal production license and fish resource fishing license to be implemented, the production of fish meal in our country will be controlled, and the quantity of imported fish meal will still occupy the leading position WQ5 (IV) import of lysine and methionine WQ5 lysine: according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the people's Republic of China, from January to November 2002, the total import of lysine was 75100 tons, an increase of 20.08% year on year, of which 23900 tons were imported from Indonesia, 21300 tons from the United States, 13200 tons from South Korea and 5600 tons from Vietnam In November, the import volume was 4311.41 tons, down 46.19% year on year From January to November, WQ5 exported 755.37 tons of lysine, up 4.62% year on year, including 190.4 tons to the Netherlands, 130.5 tons to the United States and 88.5 tons to Belgium In November, the export reached 211.34 tons, an increase of 512.77% year on year WQ5 methionine: according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 46200 tons of methionine from January to November 2002, a year-on-year decrease of 9.32%, including 19800 tons from Japan, 9200 tons from Belgium, 7600 tons from the United States and 4500 tons from France In November, imports reached 6700 tons, up 29.15% year on year From January to November, WQ5 exported 173.30 tons of methionine, a year-on-year decrease of 32.57%, of which 43.00 tons were exported to Japan, 25.00 tons to the United States and 21.00 tons to Argentina Exports in November were 17.47 tons, down 56.32 tons WQ5 3 The price of feed products fluctuated The market price of feed materials fluctuated greatly The price of feed additives soared WQ5 (1) the price of feed products fluctuated, but it was lower than the average level of last year The feed price of WQ5 fattening pigs fell from 1.64 yuan / kg in August 2001 to 1.49 yuan / kg in April 2002, a drop of 9.15% After that, it began to rise In July, the price was 1.55 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.03% It began to decline in August and gradually picked up after September Generally speaking, the price of fattening pig feed in the second half of the year is more stable than that in the first half of the year In 2002, the average price of fattening pig feed was 1.53 yuan / kg, 2.97% lower than the same period last year, but 3.68% higher than that in 2000 WQ5 from the perspective of regional price, in 2002, the provinces with high price of compound feed for fattening pigs were mainly concentrated in the south, including Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Hubei and other provinces; the provinces with low price were mainly Tianjin, Jiangsu, Qinghai, Hebei, Shandong and other provinces (source: animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture) the change trend of WQ5 meat and layer feed price is basically the same, but the feed price of broiler is always higher than that of layer feed From April 2002, the price of meat and layer feed began to pick up, up 2.82% and 4.38% respectively as of July, after which the price fell In general, the average price of meat and layer feed in 2002 was lower than that of the same period last year WQ5 in 2002, Yunnan, Guizhou, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong and other provinces with higher price of meat and layer compound feed, and Qinghai, Henan, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Shandong and other provinces with lower price (source: animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture) WQ5 (2) feed raw materials (soybean meal and fish meal) prices fluctuate greatly, and the price of corn is relatively stable WQ5 corn: since January 2002 (1.05 yuan / kg), the price of corn has been rising steadily, up 4.76% as of June (1.1 yuan / kg), of which the price of corn has remained stable from June to August After that, the price of corn began to decline, and it picked up again in December, not much In 2002, the annual average price of corn was 1.07 yuan / kg, down 7.80% year on year, but 11.71% higher than that in 2000 In general, the price change of corn in 2002 is much more stable than that in the previous two years WQ5 from January 2002, the price of corn in Asia has been rising steadily, and the price of domestic corn export has also been rising steadily With the increase of seasonal demand, the world corn demand also continues to increase The favor of South Korea and other Asian countries for China's corn also encouraged China's corn export and supported the rise of corn prices The increase of corn export also plays a supporting role in domestic corn price (source: animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture) WQ5 corn price in the third quarter of 2002 was significantly lower than that of the same period of last year The main reasons are as follows: first, the protection price of the three provinces in the northeast of the main corn producing area was lowered; second, the supply of corn exceeded the demand due to the large increase of corn production WQ5 soybean meal: since April 2002 (1.95 yuan / kg), the price of soybean meal in China has been climbing all the way, reaching 2.30 yuan / kg in September, up 17.95% Since then, it has started to fall and began to rise in December The average price in 2002 was 2.11 yuan / kg, lower than the average price in the previous two years (source: animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture) WQ5 the main reason for the price increase of soybean meal from April to August 2002 was the shortage of domestic soybean supply In addition, the increase of export volume promotes the price to strengthen Taking Shandong soybean meal market as an example, the price of soybean meal at the beginning of 2002 was only 1450 yuan / ton, but it rose to 2400 yuan / ton at the end of August, the highest level in the whole year WQ5 fish meal: since November 2001, the price of imported fish meal has risen all the way, from 5.00 yuan / kg to 5.72 yuan / kg in April 2002, an increase of 14.4% From April, the price of imported fish meal began to fluctuate, but there was no big rise and fall In 2002, the average price of imported fish meal was 5.60 yuan / kg, an increase of 11.95% year on year, 12.35% higher than the same period in 2000 (source: animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture) WQ5 the main reasons why the price of imported fish meal continued to rise in 2002 are: first, in order to prevent the introduction of BSE and itch disease, China banned the import of protein feed, meat and bone meal from BSE epidemic areas The imported protein feed is relatively concentrated in the unpolluted deep-sea fish meal produced by Peru and Chile in South America; 2 The supply of fish meal is relatively reduced in the first half of the year, leading to a substantial increase in the price of fish meal in the international market; 3 The domestic consumption is gradually expanding with the arrival of the peak season of aquatic products, and the domestic high-quality protein animal feed is far from meeting the demand, and the market gap of fish meal is large The price of WQ5 (III) methionine and lysine increased significantly The price of WQ5 methionine was stable from January to August 2002 From the end of August, the price of methionine rose all the way to the end of November The prices of solid methionine and liquid methionine were 25.14 yuan / kg and 21.17 yuan / kg, respectively, with an increase of 31.42% and 33.99% Q4 solid methionine