Analysis of domestic corn market in late July

Introduction: from the perspective of grain sales market in Northeast China, the problem of corn sales in Northeast China over the years is emerging again From the perspective of market price recovery space, it is difficult for corn sales in Northeast China to go on normally At the same time, after the auction of 1.14 million tons of corn in Jilin Province, if the subsidy is limited, the later auction activities will be more difficult In late April, Jilin provincial government decided to reduce the level of autumn grain purchase protection price in 2002, and the protection price in Northeast China may also be lowered In the case that the purchase protection price is expected to decline, many grain enterprises may adopt the method of selling old grain at market price and purchasing new grain for replenishment at low price to promote sales In the current situation of difficult corn sales and weak market price recovery, the possibility of this approach is gradually increasing At present, the main factors restricting this sales practice are: first, the level of new grain protection price will be introduced after October, the level of protection price is not easy to predict, and the cost of replenishment is not easy to grasp; second, it must be considered that if the replenishment time and quantity are relatively concentrated, the purchase price in the later stage may show an upward trend, which will appear similar to the current situation of wheat purchase in North China, and undoubtedly increase the warehousing cost The third is the restriction of the policy of the Agricultural Development Bank's sale at a favorable price It will take time for grain enterprises to obtain the approval of the agricultural development bank However, if most grain enterprises adopt this approach, the policy effect of reducing the protection price in Northeast China will extend to before the new grain goes on the market, and the current corn market will be unable to bear its weight In the third quarter, the recovery rate of corn in China is limited From this year's supply and demand fundamentals, the space for the seasonal recovery of corn prices in the third quarter will be further narrowed, and the corn prices in the production areas will not even rise After entering the fourth quarter, due to the gradual listing of corn in Huanghuai area of North China, China's corn market will fall seasonally The main reasons are as follows: first, after the corn development in Northeast China enters the tassel stage in late July, the precipitation conditions are relatively favorable, the corn growth will develop towards the direction of high yield, and the pressure of production on the market will be gradually reflected If the rainfall is sufficient in the first and middle of August, the domestic corn price may fall in advance Second, the auction of 1.14 million tons of corn in Jilin in the middle of the year had a negative impact on the market, and after the auction, the production and marketing areas had a volatile market In August, there will be a large-scale auction of stale grain, but the auction of stale grain is still uncertain From August to September, the number of grain sold by auction increased, which will restrict the normal quantity of grain sold Third, as far as feed breeding industry is concerned, the price of livestock products such as pigs is low and unstable at present, and the price of other feed materials such as soybean meal is also unstable and the trend is unclear, while the consumption of alternative energy materials such as feed wheat continues to affect corn consumption, so the depressed feed demand will restrict the corn market to continue to fall.