Analysis of Corn Market

Introduction: the domestic corn market stabilizes after a long period of decline, so where will the corn market go in the future? It will be a concern of the industry From the following two aspects of market supply and demand to analyze: first, from the overall market supply: yyp 1, domestic corn supply According to the statistics of relevant departments, by the beginning of March, China had 52 million tons of corn at the beginning of 2000 / 2001 In 2001, China's corn output is expected to be 110 million tons, with a total supply of 162 million tons According to the current production and demand situation in China, the total demand is 124.5 million tons, including 88 million tons for feeding, 13 million tons for industry, 14.8 million tons for rations, 1.2 million tons for seeds, 6 million tons for net export, 1.5 million tons for storage loss, and 37.5 million tons for final inventory It can be seen that the total inventory of domestic corn at the end of the period is significantly lower than that of the previous year Yyp 2 Grain supply in the production area At present, corn supply in Shandong, Henan and other places has been significantly reduced after half a year's supply The consumption in the market area will gradually be dominated by corn in the northeast From the purchasing situation, due to the large number of purchasing from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, there is not much grain in the hands of farmers at present, and there is little available for purchasing In addition, with the decrease of water content, the purchase price has increased significantly Yyp 2 From the perspective of market demand: yyp 1 The demand of feed and breeding industry will gradually improve From the current understanding, feed enterprises can not afford the risk of overstocking, inventory is not much, only for half a month of production needs, with the gradual reduction of inventory, purchasing intention will gradually become stronger Moreover, after entering April, feed enterprises will gradually enter the peak production season, and there will be seasonal consumption peak around May 1st, which will correspondingly drive up the corn price In addition, Russia has lifted its ban on Chinese chicken This will promote the development of aquaculture and increase the demand of the market Yyp 2 Industrial consumption is increasing On the basis of the original consumption, the 600000 tons of fuel alcohol production project started in May, 2001 in Jilin Province is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2002 It is estimated that 1.92 million tons of corn raw materials can be consumed each year, and a large amount of corn will be consumed, increasing the market demand Yyp 3 Foreign demand - export According to customs statistics, China exported 770000 tons of corn in February, a decrease of 20000 tons compared with the same period last year From January to February, China exported a total of 1 million tons of corn, a decrease of 350000 tons compared with last year Although the export volume has been greatly reduced, the country is taking active measures to encourage the export of corn in the light of some policies issued by the country in recent years In addition, in the future market, non GM corn will occupy the mainstream demand in the international market, which is also the biggest advantage of China's corn in the international market Yyp 3 Policy factors: yyp 1 The government issued a new policy to implement zero tax rate of value-added tax on export corn Exemption from output tax on export And approved a total of 6 million tons of corn export plan in Northeast China in 2002, of which the export target of Jilin is 3 million tons and that of Inner Mongolia is 1.5 million tons These policy factors will stimulate China's corn export Yyp 2 Railway Fund The reduction of railway freight reduces the cost of transportation from production area to sales area This has led to the increase of corn purchase price, the increase of market purchase volume and the more active domestic trade At the same time, it enhances the competitiveness of corn in China, the United States and South America Yyp 4 The uncertain factors that affect the market price: of course, there are also many unfavorable factors in the market: yyp 1 For example, it is recently rumored that the loan rate of corn in the United States may be increased to $1.99, and the loan rate of soybean may be reduced to $5 If the loan rate of corn is increased, it will be beneficial to increase the planting area of new corn Yyp 2 It is understood that Jilin will hold an auction of aged grains in early May, with a planned auction of 1.5 million tons of corn, which will be put into storage in 1997-2000 This is the first auction held in Jilin this year If the auction is successful, the domestic corn price will be restrained in the short term Yyp in conclusion, the author thinks that the price trend of domestic corn market in the future, if there is no fundamental change in the relationship between supply and demand, the corn market will gradually strengthen in the later period of shocks, but there will be no obvious signs in the short term Of course, in the future corn market, the selling situation of aged corn and the progress of national grain storage rotation are also important factors affecting the market YyP