Analysis of corn market trend before the festival

Introduction: Abstract: with the continuous growth of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand will be gradually reduced, and there is room for price rise; the relative weakening of domestic supply capacity from April to May will promote the rise of market price; national policies are good for the corn market, and later will play a positive role in corn price support It is expected that corn market will rebound before the Spring Festival in 2002 In 2001, the price trend of domestic corn was highly volatile In the first half of the year, the price of corn showed an overall upward trend In the second half of the year, the price of corn declined gradually In December, the lowest delivery price of Jilin (third class) corn plate fell to 900 yuan / ton, down to the lowest point of the year At the same time, the price in the sales area also showed a downward trend Due to the continuous decline of market price and China's official accession to the world trade organization, the market "bearish" atmosphere is unprecedented, which makes people's expectation on the development of domestic corn market situation uncertain With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the demand of feed enterprises has increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the prices in the production and marketing areas have gradually recovered It is expected that the corn market will rebound before the Spring Festival in 2002 The main reasons are as follows: first, from the perspective of domestic corn supply and demand In 2000 / 01, China's corn inventory at the end of the period was 40.5 million tons, while this year's output is expected to be 106-107 million tons, and the total supply is 14650 tons Therefore, at present, China's inventory is not new grain, (00 / 01) inventory is about 40.5 million tons, plus the new grain depot has about 146 million tons, while the total demand in 2001 / 02 is expected to be 119 million tons From the current output and demand situation in China In China, the total output plus inventory is larger than the annual demand, and the supply is slightly larger than the demand However, according to the statistical data, the total inventory of domestic corn at the end of the period shows a decreasing trend First of all, due to the continuous decline of the domestic corn market price, the steady rise of the wheat price, the comparative advantage of the quality and price of corn gradually increases, and the purchasing direction of grain consuming enterprises gradually changes, and the quantity of corn is not enough The consumption of feed corn was higher than that of earlier stage Secondly, in recent years, the state has vigorously supported corn deep processing enterprises such as corn starch, alcohol, corn oil, etc., with the increasing of corn consumption channels and the increasing demand compared with previous years With the continuous growth of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand will be gradually alleviated, and there is room for price rise It will play an effective role in promoting the reasonable recovery of corn market price Second, from the North China Huanghuai region to open the corn market As corn in North China and Huang Huai Region has withdrawn from the protection price range this year, the price is relatively low and the quality is better than that of last year, so the quantity of demand is also increasing From February to March this year, corn in Northeast China is still in the acquisition stage, and it is less likely to occupy the market in the sales area in large quantities The short-term domestic sales area still mainly consumes corn in Central China, which will provide corn prices in North China and Huang Huai Region Reasonable recovery opportunities From March to April, the acquisition and drying of new corn in Northeast China will not be completed completely, and the export volume will not increase significantly However, the large amount of corn in the Central Plains will be digested in the early sales area, which will make the quantity of corn available in North China and Huang Huai region drop significantly, thus creating an opportunity for the price of corn to rise Between April and may, the purchase and drying of corn in Northeast China have been completed, and the quantity of export transportation will begin to increase However, the quantity of corn available in North China and the northeast of Huanghuai is relatively limited At that time, the domestic corn digestion will be mainly in Northeast China, the supply scope will be relatively narrowed, and the supply capacity will be relatively weakened, which will promote the increase of the overall domestic corn market price Third, from the perspective of foreign trade import and export situation The release of the detailed rules for the implementation of the regulations on the administration of the safety of agricultural genetically modified organisms, in essence, is a kind of technical barrier measure adopted by the state to restrict the import of grain to a certain extent According to Article 17 of the administrative measures for import safety, the Ministry of agriculture of China shall give an approval reply within 270 days after receiving the application The long time limit for approving the safety certificate has largely restrained the import speed of corn and increased the import risk, which is unimaginable for traders Therefore, the signing of corn import contract will be limited in the near future The shipping period of nearly 1 million tons of corn purchased in the early stage is from March to may, so it can be seen that the imported corn will not have a substantial impact on the domestic corn market in the short term Fourth, from the perspective of national macro policies Among the many factors that affect the price of corn, the national macro policy has the most direct impact on the market and the most obvious effect From the current policies, it has played a support to the domestic corn market First of all, the state has cancelled the protective price policy of corn in most regions and continued to implement it in the northeast region, which not only meets the needs of entering WTO, but also enhances the domestic corn market International competitiveness is also of great significance for protecting domestic corn industry and supporting market prices Secondly, the policy and policy of expanding domestic demand formulated by the state aims to resist the economic crisis and promote economic development, and the expansion of grain reserves is undoubtedly a great advantage for corn, which to some extent eases the spear shield of corn supply exceeding demand and creates an opportunity for price rise Thirdly, the release of detailed rules of genetically modified regulations reduces the impact of foreign corn on the domestic market Therefore, the national policies are good for the corn market, and will play a positive role in the later stage of corn price support Based on the above, it is expected that corn market prices will be dominated by stable development before the Spring Festival, but we should also be aware that different from the past, China has officially joined the world trade organization, the food market is volatile, and all factors are influencing the market trend, "current affairs" analysis, "always" analysis will become the key to grasp the future market.