Analysis of corn market in June

Introduction: China's corn market has gone through the whole period of the past month At present, the price has risen slightly It is expected that the market will be better in June, and the price should end the adjustment and impact upward, but the rising range should not be too optimistic The corn market in June is promising, mainly because the fundamentals are much better than that in May The specific analysis is as follows: first, the supply side of the market has changed The sales volume of corn supplied to the south in North China is not large, which is basically over It is expected to withdraw from the market supply The northeast corn will occupy the leading position in the market sales and increase the demand for northeast corn At the same time, due to the end of northeast acquisition, the processing enterprises in the province will gradually shift from self-service supply to purchase supply The supply side decreases while the demand side remains unchanged or increases (domestic sales and self use in North China and Northeast China), which changes the market supply and demand situation and stimulates the price rise This change is also a determinant of the rise in prices Second, China's export has increased Jilin Province, a major export province, has set the target of expanding sales this year to export 5 million tons, about 300000 tons a month, and is expected to compete with domestic supply for grain sources But the biggest buyer, South Korea, broke out foot-and-mouth disease Although there are still purchases of Chinese edible corn in the market in the near future, and there will also be bids for products including edible and feed products, the purchasing activities will become cautious, affecting demand At that time, changes in exports will restrict the rise of domestic prices Third, at present, most of the grains auctioned in different regions are close to the market price (unlike the old grain auction, which has a big impact on the market) Liaoning Province held the spring grain fair on May 11-12, with a trading volume of more than 540000 tons of corn and an average trading price of 950 yuan / ton Jilin Province held the grain auction fair on May 16-17, with a trading volume of about 1070000 tons of corn and an average price of 930 yuan / ton The holding of the bidding makes the price cost locked, builds the base price for the market, and there is no downward space for the market However, there is a large number of grain sources at this price, which also limits the price to rise sharply in a certain period, which may make the price run at a high price for a period of time Fourth, the situation in the international market has also changed The American corn market is affected by climate factors, the corn planting is delayed, and the flooding makes the planting of three major corn producing states seriously backward Only 51% of the planting in Illinois is 78% compared with the average year, and the flooded area is 60000 acres; 11% in Indiana, 69% on average; 17% in Russia, 70% on average The recent crop planting report in the United States shows that 70% of corn has been planted, 88% in the same period of last year, and the emergence rate is 34%, 62% in the same period of last year CBOT prices rebounded due to climate concerns In July, the contract stood above the 100 day average In July, the contract rose from $2.00/bushel in early May to $2.07/bushel in late May, with a maximum of $2.16/bushel In the spot market, the offshore bidding in the Gulf of Mexico rose from $87 / ton in early May to $93 / ton in late May Although the U.S raised the interest rate of corn planting loan this year, the delayed planting due to rainfall may cause the corn planting area to switch to soybean planting Argentina's market situation is still not improving Due to the government's increase in grain export tariffs, Argentina's major agricultural groups plan to hold a strike from May 26 to 29 to stop the sale of grain and oilseed products to protest the government's economic policy (Argentina's soybean and corn harvesting is in full swing, and many export contracts are due to be covered) The government and trade agencies will pay export taxes It will directly affect Argentina's grain export this year, and the grain export may stagnate, which will indirectly benefit the export of the United States and China However, it should also be noted that the U.S reported that the market is facing the risk of a decline in world feed consumption, and that weak demand will restrict the substantial increase in prices Fifthly, the abnormal climate in China will affect the price If there is continuous high temperature and drought weather, it will affect people's psychological expectations and promote the formation of prices Sixthly, it is predicted that the wheat yield in 2002 will be the same or slightly lower than that in 2001, mainly because the wheat planting area will be reduced by 3% - 4% and the irrigation area will be reduced In this way, the effect of summer grain on the price of corn is less than that of the harvest year The above factors constitute a favorable support for the market in June, but we should also pay close attention to the climate conditions of major international and domestic production areas At present, domestic consumption demand is still sluggish, and the import operation of private enterprises with quotas in June and other negative factors have an impact on the price Generally speaking, the price in June should break through the bottom consolidation area under the influence of changes in the supply side, and the increase is not expected to be large However, if the international and domestic climate is abnormal, the possibility of a large increase is not ruled out (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: