Analysis of corn market in domestic production and marketing areas

Introduction: There are two different development trends in the domestic corn market The transaction price of corn in the production area is stagnant, and there is a downward trend in some areas The average transaction price of car board in Jilin Province is 935 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the previous one, with a decrease of 2.3% The average transaction price of the third-class corn in Heilongjiang province remains at 930 yuan / ton, and the sales price of corn in the Central Plains, which is different from the production area, is still rising, The price of second-class corn in Puyang City, Henan Province reached 1040 yuan / ton, up 7.22% compared with the previous period; the price of second-class corn in Hunan market was 1160 yuan / ton, up 4.5% compared with the previous period; the price of second-class corn in Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province was 1075 yuan / ton, basically the same as the previous period; the price of second-class corn in Fuzhou City rose to 1170 yuan / ton, up 20-30 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; port The regional price remained stable The average closing price of corn in Dalian port area (the same below) was 1020 yuan / ton, and that in Qinhuangdao area was 1010 yuan / ton There was no significant change between the price and the previous period As other ports are close to the Central Plains, when the price of corn in the Central Plains rose, the price at the port also rose to a certain extent compared with the previous period In the early stage, the phenomenon of hanging upside down in production and marketing areas has been basically improved, replaced by the new form of "stable prices in production areas and starting prices in sales areas" The causes of the new form are analyzed The specific factors are as follows: I with the end of the state grain storage and purchase work, the purchase market in the production area has undergone new changes Most of the grain storage and purchase enterprises are once again closed, unwilling to continue to accept the farmers' new grain, and the purchase progress of the enterprises that continue to purchase is significantly slower than that in the earlier stage As a result, the local farmers illegally sell the surplus grain in their hands nearby, and have to rush to sell the new grain far away However At present, the purchase market is in a recession, and the illegal purchase price is equal to the farmers' payment However, the strong desire to cash in the Spring Festival drives the farmers to produce new grain at a low price, which seems to form a vicious circle The more the farmers sell grain in large quantities, the more difficult the price is However, due to the restriction of the state's temporary management, the phenomenon that the storage enterprises confiscate the farmers has been effectively stopped Although the purchase price has fallen Range, but the decline space is relatively limited 2 In the context of the state's withdrawal from the scope of protection, the market price of corn in the sales area is at a relatively low level, and the long-term weather benefits The quality of new corn is better than that of last year In the case of good quality and low price, the Northeast production area is in the stage of new rice acquisition Large quantities of foreign transportation is not easy Most of the domestic market shares are occupied by it, and the number of foreign transportation is increasing, The market has also gone out of the "low opening and high going" price market In recent years, although the inventory of grain consuming enterprises is sufficient to meet the supply of the Spring Festival, the purchase quantity and speed of the market have slowed down, but the quantity of Foreign Transportation in the sales area remains high In the case of increased railway freight, the sales price has also increased to varying degrees In the later period, the high sales volume will continue, and the price will tend to rise in a stable way, but the range is relatively limited The steady growth of the transportation volume outside the production and marketing areas means that the sales price has not increased as the trading volume has increased significantly This is still analyzed from the following aspects: 1 The supply of new rice is still large At present, the demand of domestic corn market continues to increase, but compared with the supply, it is insufficient The data shows that in the year of 00 / 01, China's corn inventory at the beginning of the period is 52 million tons, less the consumption of feed, industry, rations, etc in the current year, the inventory at the end of the period is 4050 tons, that is to say, the inventory at the beginning of the period of 01 / 02 is 40.5 million tons Although the inventory at the beginning of the period is decreased compared with the same period of last year, it is short-term It is not a problem to meet the domestic demand When the corn in the Central Plains is exhausted, the corn in the Northeast will be supplied later, and the supply will not be cut off 2 Bidding activities are still in progress Recently, the selling of old grain is being carried out in Dalian, Heilongjiang and other places in China, with a volume of million tons Although the price will not bring too much pressure on the market, the huge sales volume will not have a small impact on the market, increasing the market supply, reducing the purchase of new grain by grain consuming enterprises, which is not conducive to the later development of the market 3 The shipment time of imported corn is approaching With the passage of time, the shipping time of the imported corn ordered in the early stage is approaching gradually Although the time interval is long, its eagerness to arrive at the port is enough to increase the industry's worries about the later market development The increase of intangible pressure in the later stage of the current stage hinders the further development of the market 4 The demand falls back in stages Due to the excessive purchase in the early stage, some enterprises have been unable to bear the huge inventory pressure Under the condition of satisfying the production during the Spring Festival, they stopped the purchase of new grain Although some enterprises are still purchasing inventory, considering the inventory capacity, the production profit in the later stage and the tight railway freight transportation, the purchase and transportation progress is obviously slower than that in the early stage and the demand quantity stage Sex fall, inhibited the good effect of festival stimulating consumption 5 The strength of policy support is realistic in the short term In terms of corn, the early genetically modified rules have played a certain promoting effect, but they are intended to limit the excessive corn import in the later period However, even if the import of corn is completely limited, a large number of exports are no longer feasible The oversupply situation of China's corn market will not be changed With the passage of time, this good news is gradually diluted by the market The market performance is flat 6 Imported corn is ready to go In the later period, corn import will be an indisputable fact, but there are still variables in quantity According to the provisions of the agreement, the import quota of 5.85 million tons, the share of private enterprises is 32%, that is, the import quota of 1.87 million tons When the import price is profitable, the possibility of over import will be greater The purchase of imported corn by private enterprises will be based on the reduction of domestic corn purchase This increase and decrease has a lot of impact on the domestic corn market The bearish atmosphere of the market is still hard to fade, which is unfavorable to the current and later market development 7 The counter effect of market development The development of the market is that in the period when the market is gradually improving and the market is gradually weakening, the regulatory role of the market itself will become more and more obvious, and it is difficult to go up and down, and the low rebound of corn market price in the early stage is not unrelated to it, while the current market development is gradually improving, the prices in the production areas are stable, and the prices in the sales areas are stable, and the overall trend is upward, This makes the invisible leverage of the market tend to be balanced, and the market tends to be weak gradually, which is manifested in the weakness of price rising and the emergence of a weak pattern 8 The increase of railway freight is bad The improvement of railway freight should be a good promotion to the market, but the increase of freight and the tight freight capacity not only promote the price, but also restrain the price rise to some extent This is mainly because with the approaching of the annual spring peak, the railway freight is bound to go up, and the freight transportation will tend to be tense, and the grain consuming enterprises will also come to the peak Before that, the procurement of raw grain was stepped up, and the real arrival of the peak period, the procurement progress of grain consuming enterprises also slowed down significantly The recent reduction of procurement quantity is the real portrayal From this point of view, the negative effect of the increase of railway freight for spring transportation will be gradually obvious The market performance of the production and marketing areas is different, influenced by seasonal factors, and closely related to the differences in their respective market conditions In the later stage, the overall performance of domestic corn prices is stable, but after the Spring Festival, the demand will decline, and the role of promoting the market will gradually fade with the decrease of the quantity The production areas are not many due to the current export quantity The decrease of demand in the post sales area has little impact on it, while the current market export volume in the sales area is large, so the price is stable and high, and the price after the festival will tend to decline due to the decrease of the export volume.