Analysis of China's agricultural product supply and demand situation in May 2021 (CASDE-No.59)

foodmate.
net/tag_2319.
html" class="zdbq" title="Corn related food information" target="_blank">Corn : It is predicted this month that foodmate.
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html" class="zdbq" title="China-related food information" target="_blank">China’s corn planting area will be 42.
670 million hectares (640 million mu) in 2021/22 , an increase of 14.
06 million hectares (21.
09 million mu) from the previous year, an increase of 3.
4%.
This is mainly due to the better income from corn planting.
The enthusiasm for planting expansion is high, and the willingness to plant corn varieties such as foodmate.
net/tag_269.
html" class="zdbq" title="Soy-related food information" target="_blank">soybeans and foodmate.
net/tag_3045.
html" class="zdbq" title="Beet related food information" target="_blank">sugar beets in the northeast production areas has increased.
During the spring planting period, the soil moisture in most production areas was better than that of the previous year.
Coupled with factors such as variety improvement and technological progress, it is estimated that the yield of corn per hectare will reach 6,370 kg per hectare (425 kg per mu), an increase of 0.
8% over the previous year; total corn output 272 million tons, an increase of 4.
3% over the previous year; in terms of demand, the production of live pigs will continue to recover, which will drive the increase in corn feed consumption, but taking into account the adjustment of livestock and poultry feed formula, the increase in the proportion of corn substitutes, and the high price of corn will affect deep processing Demand has been suppressed, and the growth rate of total corn demand will slow down.
It is estimated that total corn consumption will be 294 million tons, an increase of 1.
6% over the previous year; this year's corn production and demand gap will be reduced to 21.
89 million tons.

 

　　Soybeans: This month forecasts that China's soybean planting area in 2021/22 will be 9,347 thousand hectares (140 million mu), a decrease of 5.
4% compared to the previous year.
This is mainly due to the obvious advantage of corn planting in comparative benefits.
Some soybeans in the main producing areas will be planted with corn; The main soybean producing areas are generally suitable for moisture conditions.
The yield of soybeans has increased steadily, reaching 1995 kg per hectare (133 kg per mu), an increase of 0.
6% over the previous year; soybean production reached 18.
65 million tons, a decrease of 4.
8% over the previous year.
With the gradual return of pig production capacity to normal levels, the growth rate of soybean imports and crushed consumption has slowed down, and are expected to reach 102 million tons and 10.
67 million tons, respectively, an increase of 1.
6% and 2.
7% from the previous year.
Demand for domestic soybeans has increased steadily, and prices will stabilize at a high level.
The average wholesale price of domestic soybeans in sales areas is expected to range from 5,300 to 5,500 yuan per ton; international soybean supply and demand are affected by uncertain factors such as weather in major producing countries and global economic recovery.
With high fluctuations, it is estimated that the average price of imported soybeans after CIF tax is 3,600-3,800 yuan per ton.

 

　　Cotton: It is forecasted this month that China's cotton sown area will be 31.
07 thousand hectares (46.
6 million mu) in the 2021/22 season, a decrease of 2% from the previous year.
Xinjiang will continue to implement a cotton target price policy of 18,600 yuan per ton in 2021.
The basic benefits of cotton planting will be guaranteed.
The enthusiasm of cotton farmers is relatively high.
Considering the constraints of water and soil resources, the sub-suitable cotton area will continue to withdraw, and the cotton planting area will be reduced by 1% compared with the previous year.
Due to factors such as low comparative benefit and high labor opportunity cost in the inland cotton areas, the area of ​​cotton planted continued to decline, down 6% from the previous year.
The climatic conditions during the cotton sowing and seedling emergence are basically suitable.
The temperature in western Xinjiang is relatively low.
The estimated cotton yield per hectare is 1,846 kg per hectare (123 kg per mu), which is 1% less than the previous year.
The cotton output was 5.
73 million tons, a decrease of 3% from the previous year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global GDP growth will reach 6% and 4.
4% in 2021 and 2022, and the recovery of global cotton consumption demand is expected to accelerate.
China's textile and apparel exports are expected to be in a better situation in the new year.
Cotton consumption will be 8.
2 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous year.
Imports will increase by 100,000 tons from the previous year to 2.
5 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase to 7.
71 million tons.
In 2021/22, the global cotton production decreased slightly compared with the previous year, and consumption increased.
However, considering that global cotton stocks remain high and epidemics in some countries have repeated, the operation of the global cotton market is still facing greater uncertainty, and the international cotton price range is small Increased to 75-90 cents per pound.

 

　　Edible vegetable oil: It is estimated this month that in 2020/21, the output of edible vegetable oil will be 29.
03 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons from the previous month's estimate.
Among them, driven by the increase in soybean imports, soybean oil production was increased by 370,000 tons; rapeseed oil production was increased by 160,000 tons, mainly because the accumulated temperature in most of the rape production areas was higher than normal in the same period of the year since planting, and the impact of wet pollution It is lighter than the previous year, and the overall growth is good.
The southwest production area has entered a mature harvest period, and the scheduled output is slightly better than previously expected.
It is predicted this month that the output of edible vegetable oil will be 29.
57 million tons in 2021/22, an increase of 540,000 tons over the previous year.
Among them, under the dual impact of the decline in soybean production and the increase in imports, the output of soybean oil is expected to be 17.
67 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons over the previous year; the expected sown area and output of rapeseed and peanuts will increase, and the output of rapeseed oil and peanut oil are respectively It was 6.
01 million tons and 3.
47 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons and 80,000 tons respectively from the previous year; the output of other vegetable oils such as sunflower oil and linseed oil decreased by 40,000 tons compared with the previous year.
The import volume of edible vegetable oil was 8.
5 million tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous year.
Affected by the increase in the urbanization rate, the consumption of edible vegetable oil by residents slightly increased; affected by factors such as the restoration of pig production capacity and the increase in oil supplementation after the replacement of corn and soybean meal, the use of feed oil increased slightly.
It is estimated that the domestic consumption of edible vegetable oil in the new year will reach 35.
89 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons over the previous year.
The supply of edible vegetable oil at home and abroad has resumed increasing, and the price range has been slightly lowered.

 

　　Sugar: This month’s estimate is that domestic sugar production in 2020/21 is 10.
59 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from last month, mainly because Guangxi's cane sugar production is slightly higher than expected; sugar imports are 4.
5 million tons, an increase of 600,000 from last month Ton.
It is predicted this month that China’s sugar planting area will be 13.
88 million hectares (20.
82 million mu) in the year of 2021/22, a decrease of 65,000 hectares (975,000 mu) from the previous year.
Among them, the comparative benefit of beet planting in northern China will decrease, and the area will be reduced by 79,000 hectares ( 1.
185 million mu), but the income of sugarcane planting in the south has improved, and the enthusiasm of sugarcane farmers in production has increased, and the area has increased slightly; it is expected that the sugar output in the year of 2021/22 will be 10.
31 million tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons from the previous year, and the consumption will be 15.
5 million tons.
stable.
It is estimated that the average international sugar price will be 15.
0-18.
0 cents per pound in 2021/22, an average increase of 1.
5 cents compared to 2020/21, mainly due to the expected rise in world commodity inflation; domestic sugar prices are expected to reduce production and increase costs.
Under the influence, it is estimated that 5300-5800 yuan per ton, the average value is 100 yuan higher than the previous year.