Analysis and Prospect of world food situation (10.28)

OA show ('918 '); Zhang tonggjp, information center of the Ministry of agriculture, in 1999, the world grain output slightly decreased compared with the previous year, the international trade volume increased compared with the previous year, the grain inventory decreased, and the grain export price fell to the lowest level in the past five years Gjp I grain output: in 1999, the world grain output was 2.068 billion tons (1.872 billion tons in terms of rice), higher than the average of the past five years, but decreased by 9.9 million tons, or 1% compared with the previous year Among them, 589 million tons of wheat, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; 886 million tons of coarse grain, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%; 593 million tons of rice, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 (Table 1) In 1999, grain production increased and decreased in terms of regions, and increased in South America and Oceania compared with the previous year; decreased in North America, Europe and Africa compared with the previous year; and remained the same in Asia as the previous year In terms of major grain producing countries, grain output in 1999: 456 million tons in China (including Taiwan Province), 0.9% lower than the same period last year; 336 million tons in the United States, 4% lower than the same period last year; 229 million tons in India, 2.2% higher than the same period last year; 59 million tons in Indonesia, 0.5% lower than the same period last year; 58.6 million tons in Russia, 11.4% higher than the same period last year; 53.8 million tons in Canada, 5.7% higher than the same period last year; 32.5 million tons in Australia It increased by 3.8% on a year-on-year basis, while 102 million tons in 15 EU countries decreased by 4.5% on a year-on-year basis Gjp II Grain international trade forecasts that in 1999 / 2000, the world grain imports will be 222 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons, or 3.5% over the previous year Among them, 103 million tons of wheat increased by 5.6% year-on-year; 96 million tons of coarse grain increased by 3.3% year-on-year; 23.7 million tons of rice decreased by 4.4% year-on-year (Table 1) Gjp forecasts the grain export volume of major grain exporting countries in 1999 / 2000: the United States will export 84 million tons; Argentina 22.1 million tons; Canada 21.5 million tons; Australia 20.9 million tons; EU 20 million tons In 1999, China imported 3.39 million tons of grain, exported 7.38 million tons of grain and exported 3.99 million tons of grain Gjp forecasts the grain import volume of major grain importing countries in 1999 / 2000: Japan will import 27 million tons; South Korea will import 12.3 million tons; Mexico will import 11.2 million tons; Egypt will import 10.3 million tons; Russia will import 5.6 million tons; Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and other countries will import grain Gjp III grain inventory forecasts that the world's grain ending carry over inventory in 2000 will be 234 million tons, the first time in the past four years that it will decrease by 8 million tons, or 2.3%, compared with the previous year Grain stock by variety: Wheat stock 134 million tons, coarse grain stock 142 million tons, rice stock 58 million tons (Table 1) It is predicted that the world's grain inventory at the end of the period in 2000 will account for 17.4% of the consumption, 0.7 percentage points less than that of the previous year According to FAO, the world food security line is that food stocks account for 17% - 18% of consumption In recent three years, the world food stocks are within the food security line Gjp Table 1 world grain production, supply, trade and inventory unit: million tons gjp year 1997 / 98 1998 / 99 1999 / 2000 grain output 2095 2088 2068 wheat 613 595 589 coarse grain 905 911 886 rice 577 582 593 grain supply 2198 2226 2213 grain consumption 1870 1877 1882 grain trade 218215 222 grain inventory 330342334 Grain export price gjp in January 2000 was lower than that of the same period of last year, falling to the lowest level in the past five years The FOB price of No 2 hard winter wheat in the United States is US $111 per ton, down 12% year on year and 48.6% year on year The FOB price of yellow corn No.2 in the United States is 93 US dollars per ton, down 5.1% year on year, 41.5% compared with 1996 The FOB price of No 2 sorghum in the United States was US $91 per ton, down 5.2% year on year, 41.7% compared with 1996 The FOB price of white rice in Thailand was $244 per ton, down 20.5% year on year, 30.7% compared with 1996 Gjp v grain planting trend in 2000 gjp recently predicted that the world wheat output in 2000 will still be close to the level of the previous year and the average level of the past five years The planting area of Winter Wheat in the United States will be reduced, while that in Canada will be increased, that in Europe will be expanded, and that in Russia and China will be reduced In 2000, some countries in the southern hemisphere have sowed the world's coarse grain Southern Africa and Argentina will increase the area, while Brazil will reduce the area In 2000, the world rice planting area will be slightly less than that of the previous year.