Analysis and Prospect of grain production situation in Hebei Province today

Introduction: in 2001, the first year of the implementation of the tenth five year plan, the Province vigorously promoted structural adjustment, increased scientific and technological efforts to fight disasters, and sustained and stable development of grain and cotton production Grain production decreased in summer, decreased in autumn and decreased in the whole year, and the total output remained at a high level; cotton production increased the promotion of insect resistant cotton and the increase of sowing area, not only the unit yield increased, but also the total output increased significantly compared with the previous year I overall assessment of the grain production situation in 2001: decrease in summer, increase in autumn and decrease in the whole year Due to the influence of three major factors, i.e the decrease of sowing area, the continuous drought and the dry hot wind in the later stage, the production of summer grain was reduced again on the basis of the reduction of production in the previous year; the drought in the early stage of autumn grain sowing was serious, and the phenomenon of less sowing and late sowing appeared, but the precipitation in the middle and later stage was abundant, and the temperature was appropriate, which was beneficial to the growth of crops In addition, the expansion of corn planting area with better benefits and the rise of its proportion have promoted the increase of autumn grain yield Throughout the whole year's grain production, although the autumn grain has increased, the summer grain production has been greatly reduced, thus forming the situation of the summer grain decreasing and the autumn grain increasing and the whole year decreasing 1 The output of summer grain decreased by 792000 tons This year, the sown area of wheat, the main variety of summer grain in our province, was greatly reduced In addition, the continuous drought and the attack of natural disasters such as dry and hot wind in the later period led to the reduction of the per unit yield and the total output of summer grain in our province According to statistics, the actual sown area of summer grain in the province is 39.444 million mu, a decrease of 1.306 million mu or 3.2% over the previous year; the per mu yield is 289.2 kg, a decrease of 10.2 kg or 3.4% over the previous year's 299.4 kg; the total yield is 11.406 million tons, a decrease of 792000 tons or 6.5% over the previous year 2 Autumn grain is expected to increase by 181000 tons This year, the planting area of autumn harvest crops in our province is 59.990 million mu, a decrease of 3.04 million mu, or 4.8% over the previous year; the production per mu is expected to be 224.9 kg, an increase of 13.7 kg, or 6.5% over the previous year; the total production is expected to be 13.494 million tons, an increase of 181000 tons, or 1.4% over the previous year 3 It is estimated that the annual grain production will be reduced by 611000 tons Throughout the whole grain production situation, although there are disasters in summer and autumn, due to the concerted efforts of the whole province to fight the disasters, the loss caused by natural disasters will be reduced to the minimum, and the total grain production will still maintain a high level In 2001, the annual grain planting area of the whole province was 99.434 million mu, a decrease of 4.346 million mu, or 4.2% over the previous year; the annual per mu yield is expected to be 250.4 kg, an increase of 4.6 kg, or 1.9% over the previous year; the total annual yield is expected to be 24.9 million tons, a decrease of 611000 tons, or 2.4% over the previous year Compared with the previous years, the grain production of our province in 2001 has the following characteristics: first, the area of production reduction is large and the scope is wide According to preliminary statistics, the affected area of crops in the province is about 43.26 million mu, accounting for 32.8% of the total sown area of crops There are 32.929 million mu of crops suffering from drought in the whole province, accounting for 76.1% of the affected area From a regional perspective, due to four consecutive years of drought in Zhangjiakou City, the grain output of Zhangjiakou City is only one quarter of the normal annual situation, and the grain yield per mu is only three or forty kg Most of the autumn grain can not be harvested, so it can only be used as green feed The second is the large reduction of summer grain production, which leads to the reduction of grain production throughout the year The province's summer grain production has been reduced by 6.5% and 792000 tons of grain Even though it offsets the 181000 tons of grain increased in autumn, the province's annual grain production has also been reduced by 611000 tons Third, because of the change of autumn grain planting structure, the per unit yield of autumn grain is increased Although the area of autumn grain in our province has decreased a lot this year, the planting structure has changed a lot The small coarse grains with low per unit yield have decreased a lot, but the corn with high per unit yield has increased a lot and its proportion has increased In addition, during the period of corn production, the weather in most areas is smooth and the climate is suitable, which makes the per unit yield of corn increase and the yield increase, thus greatly promoting the per unit yield of autumn grain Fourth, according to the analysis of the increase and decrease factors, the decrease of the sown area reduced the total grain output of the whole year by 1088000 tons, while the increase of the unit yield increased the total grain output by 477000 tons The result of the two offsets reduced the total grain output of the whole year by 611000 tons 2 Analysis on the factors of grain production reduction 1 The decrease of planting area is the main factor of grain production decline this year First, the structural adjustment was intensified and the planting area was reduced This year, all cities in our province actively responded to the idea of appropriately reducing grain planting area put forward by the provincial Party committee and the provincial government, implementing the idea of "maintaining the large, optimizing the small", improving the variety structure, so as to expand the planting of high-yield, efficient and high-quality crops with good economic benefits, such as vegetables Affected by this, all regions have reduced the area of grain planting, and farmers' management focus has gradually shifted from grain to vegetables and other high-value and good benefit crops Therefore, this year's crop planting area shows a trend of one decrease and more increase, that is, the decrease of grain, and the increase of cotton, oil, vegetable and other crops Second, during this year's summer and autumn grain sowing, due to drought and water shortage, many areas can't be seeded, especially in the northern mountainous areas, Bashang and eastern coastal areas The watering conditions are relatively poor, and the continuous drought and no rain before and after sowing lead to the reduction of planting area Affected by the above two factors, this year's sown area of summer grain decreased by 1.306 million mu, that of autumn grain decreased by 3.04 million mu, and that of the whole province decreased by 4.346 million mu 2 Serious drought and dry hot wind are the key factors affecting the decline of grain production this year On the basis of four consecutive years of severe drought, the drought in our province is still very serious this year, which has a great impact on food production Because of the serious drought in spring, it not only affects the sowing of spring sown grain, but also affects the normal growth and development of summer grain In addition, in the middle and last ten days of May, the dry hot wind weather occurred for a long time in most wheat areas of our province, leading to the advance of wheat maturity and the decrease of 1000 grain weight Summer drought and autumn drought are also serious in some areas, which have a certain impact on autumn grain production According to the estimation of the meteorological department, the average precipitation of the whole province from January to May is only 47 mm, 32% less than the average value of the same period of the whole year Before the middle of June, there was no large-scale rainfall in the province, so it was very difficult to sow in spring There are 12 million mu of spring sown crops in the province that have missed the suitable sowing date and have to be changed to summer sown or grain sown to grass sown There are 2 million mu of cultivated land in the province that have not been sown due to drought, mainly concentrated in Zhangjiakou City and other first season crop areas After the middle of June, most parts of the province began to rain and the drought was alleviated However, the distribution of rainfall was not balanced in time and space In some places, there was a serious summer drought, especially in most of Zhangjiakou, baodingxi and Western Shijiazhuang However, as far as the whole province is concerned, although the precipitation in summer this year is less than normal, the precipitation time and intensity are relatively suitable, and the water utilization rate is relatively high Compared with last year, the summer drought is lighter, and its impact on autumn grain production is smaller Throughout the province, the advantages and disadvantages coexist, and the advantages outweigh the disadvantages 3 The decline of prices, the decline of benefits and the decline of farmers' enthusiasm for grain production are important factors for the decline of grain production this year According to the follow-up survey of agricultural and sideline products transactions in the key markets of Zhao county, Changli, Daming, Dingzhou, Huai'an and Jizhou, the price of grain in our province has been continuously decreasing since 1997 By January this year, the price of wheat was only 1.00 yuan per kilogram, and that of corn was 0.89 yuan By the end of October, the price of wheat and corn had been increased by 0.05 yuan and 0.18 yuan, respectively, to 1.05 yuan per kilogram Compared with 1.07 yuan in 1997, the price of wheat per kilogram has decreased by 0.65 yuan, 38.2% and that of corn by 0.21 yuan, 16.4% over the past four years In this year's purchase of autumn grain, the price of corn in our province has been withdrawn from the protection price for the first time It is expected that the price of corn will still fall after the new grain goes on the market, and it is unlikely to continue to rise, which to a certain extent can not have a certain impact on Farmers' enthusiasm for grain production 3 Prediction of grain production situation in 2002 with the further deepening of grain and cotton circulation system reform and China's accession to the WTO in 2002, grain and cotton trade has become the general trend of the world, which will have an impact on the development of grain and cotton industry in our province Due to the reduction of grain production for three consecutive years and the reduction of cotton market price, grain production will be flat and slightly increased; due to the reduction of cotton price, the sown area will be reduced, and the total output will be basically the same as that of the previous year From the perspective of the fluctuation law of grain production growth cycle in Hebei Province, if there is no major natural disaster in 2002, the total output is expected to be about 25 million tons From the perspective of favorable factors of environmental change, first, although the area of wheat sown in autumn and winter will continue to be reduced, the extent of reduction is significantly smaller than that in the previous two years In addition, the soil moisture and climate conditions during autumn sowing are better than that in the same period of last year, and the heat and water conditions are basically suitable, which is favorable for wheat sowing and seedling growth Therefore, it is expected that the growth condition of wheat before overwintering will be better than that of last year It will lay a foundation for the improvement of wheat yield and the stability of total yield Second, due to the rapid development of the breeding industry, it is expected that the animal husbandry will show an increasing trend in 2002, so that the feed grain, which accounts for about 35% of the total grain consumption, will also show an increasing trend Third, due to the three consecutive years of grain production reduction in our province, the market pressure has slowed down, greatly mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain next year; fourth, the layout of planting industry continues to develop in a reasonable direction, with more obvious regional characteristics The whole province has formed high-quality special wheat and special corn production belt along the Jingshan and Jingguang railway, and the miscellaneous grain concentrated production area in Heilonggang basin, Taihang Mountain Area and the northern region The formation of these regional layout has given full play to the resource characteristics and regional economic advantages of each region, optimized the allocation of agricultural production factors in the whole province, and improved the overall quality and efficiency of the planting industry At the same time, it should also be noted that the supply and demand of grain market still shows that the supply exceeds the demand, the inventory of grain enterprises continues to increase, the loss rises again, and the benefit of grain planting is not high In addition, the provincial Party committee and the provincial government put forward the goal of "appropriately reducing the area of grain planting and developing the industrialization of vegetables", all of these factors will have a restraining effect on grain production 4 Basic countermeasures to ensure the stable development of grain our province is not only a major province of grain and cotton production, but also a major province of grain and cotton consumption In the face of "entering WTO", the grain and cotton industry of our province is faced with unprecedented challenges and opportunities Therefore, it is of great significance to recognize the situation, formulate countermeasures, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, adjust and improve the development strategy of grain and cotton to maintain the sustainable and stable development of grain and cotton industry in our province, and maintain the social economy and stability of our province According to the current situation of grain and cotton production and marketing in our province and the prediction target of 2002, we must take corresponding comprehensive supporting measures to ensure the healthy and stable development of grain and cotton 1 Adapt to the market demand and increase the adjustment of grain planting structure According to the overall plan of the provincial government, the thinking of grain and cotton planting structure adjustment in 2002: Grain: increase the internal adjustment of grain production structure, vigorously develop high-quality grain varieties, vigorously develop the production of high-quality special wheat, high-quality corn and high-quality miscellaneous grain in grain production, vigorously adjust the spring wheat, naked oats and high water consumption grain crops that do not meet the market demand, and increase drought tolerance and high efficiency Crop transformation To guide the transfer and concentration of high-quality and marketable grain varieties to suitable areas and form regional planting