Analysis and Prospect of global soybean market in the near future

Introduction: the first part: basic situation of domestic soybean spot market in the near future: 1 Domestic soybean inventory statistics: ① 500000 tons in Heilongjiang; ② 200000 tons in Inner Mongolia; ③ 800000 tons in warehouse receipts About 1.5 million tons in total Digestion of domestic bean inventory: ① 40000 tons of Harbin, 70000 tons of Dalian; ② 70000 tons of warehouse receipts have been written off last week Recently, the U.S market fell sharply, and it is expected that the digestion speed of warehouse receipts will slow down It is estimated that 400000 tons will be written off before the end of August, which may be halved at present; or 400000 tons will be written off at a low price, such as 2000-2100 yuan / ton Therefore, by the end of August, the possible supply of domestic beans will be 11 + (200000-400000) = 300000-500000 tons, and the inventory will be reduced to 1-1.2 million tons Price trend: the low price of domestic beans at the end of June this year is: Shandong 2120, Heilongjiang 2020, Dalian 2090 yuan / ton, but there is no market At present (2002.7.29), the arrival price of Shandong oil plant is 2280-2300 (unit price of warehouse: 2160 yuan / ton, including packaging, excluding premium), 2160 (no quantity) of Heilongjiang, 2190 yuan / ton (unit price of warehouse) of Dalian As a result, Shandong increased by 160-180 yuan / ton, Heilongjiang by 140 yuan / ton, Dalian by 100 yuan / ton (the original warehouse receipt was lower by 2060 yuan / ton) It is expected that the price trend of domestic beans in the later period will still depend on the trend of CBOT soybeans and the import situation of China Import soybeans: 1 Before the import soybeans arrived at the port in June, the port's import soybeans inventory had been very few According to the previous investigation, as of the end of May, there were 200000-250000 tons of imported soybeans in the port, and the estimated quantity was 300000 tons with the hidden inventory of oil plants 2 It is estimated that 800000 tons of soybeans will be imported in June, 1.8 million tons in July and 1 million tons in August That is to say, from the beginning of June to the end of August, the total supply of imported soybeans is 30 + 80 + 180 + 100 = 3.9 million tons If the available supply of domestic soybeans (300000-500000 tons) is added, it will be 4.2-4.4 million tons 6 In the three months of July and August, the average crushing capacity was about 1.4 million tons It can be seen that there is no shortage of soybeans before the end of August in China, on the contrary, the supply is quite abundant 3 Price trend: at present, the port's import soybean distribution price is 2300-2350 yuan / ton It is understood that the lowest price in the early stage is 2080 yuan / ton, up 220 yuan / ton, and most traders have no goods We think that at such a high price, the small and medium-sized oil plants that rush to buy imported soybeans may face great risks The reasons are analyzed in the fourth part 3 Analysis of the recent soybean market trend since the beginning of July, the domestic soybean meal and soybean oil prices have increased significantly For example, in Shandong Province, soybean increased by 160-220 yuan / ton, soybean meal increased by 400 yuan / ton (from 1670 at the end of June to 2070-2100 yuan / ton at present), and soybean oil increased by 350 yuan / ton (from 4700 at the end of June to 5050 yuan / ton at present) Guangdong soybean meal increased by 350 yuan / ton (from 1700 yuan / ton at the end of June to 2050 yuan / ton at present), and soybean oil increased by 350 yuan / ton (from 4600 yuan / ton at the end of June to 4950 yuan / ton at present) Analysis of the reasons for the rise: 1 The sharp rise in the U.S market at the end of June was the trigger for the rise of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil On June 28, the U.S Department of Agriculture released a report on soybean planting and inventory, which resulted in a sharp rise in the U.S market due to the reduction of both planting area and soybean inventory After that, the fund began to speculate on the weather, and the early drought was incisively and vividly done by the fund From June 28 to July 23, CBOT contracts rose 90 cents in August, 80 cents in September and 75 cents in November The call for a bull market 2 From the beginning of June to the end of June, the spot market of soybean meal fell sharply At that time, Guangdong fell to 1700 yuan / ton from 2100, Shandong fell to 1670 yuan / ton from 1950, and the market in the south of Shandong generally fell by 300-400 yuan / ton The sharp drop is a response to the expectation that a large number of imported soybeans will arrive in Hong Kong in the later period, but the speed and decline of the drop are amazing It should be said that this collapse is not rational, and the market has a strong demand for repair, which is also one of the main reasons for the rise of soybean meal in early July However, in the process of repairing, the market was worried about the increase of the cost of imported soybeans to Hong Kong and the decrease of the quantity of soybeans delivered in the later period, which led to the current situation of overcorrection 3 By analyzing the flow direction of imported soybeans, we can find several new features: independent import of large-scale or joint venture oil and fat enterprises in coastal areas; significant reduction in the number of imported soybeans by traders; serious shortage of soybeans (such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places) in small and medium-sized oil plants due to quality inspection certificate problems The evolution of import pattern leads to the following consequences: more than 90% of imported soybeans are controlled in the hands of large coastal oil plants, and a monopoly situation is formed; the volume of trade soybeans is small, and the rise of soybean meal and soybean oil causes the rush buying of small and medium-sized oil plants, and there is a serious outage in some areas; most large oil plants are started normally, and the new and expanded oil plants can completely make up for the air caused by the shutdown of small and medium-sized oil plants White, soybean meal soybean oil supply should be more abundant, the sharp rise in the U.S market and speculation is the main reason for the spot price to rise too much 4 The recovery of the breeding industry, the cautious stock preparation of feed enterprises and the speculation of traders are also one of the reasons for the recent surge of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil This point will not be discussed The second part is the general situation of the international soybean spot market in the near future First, the United States 1 Exports: as of July 18, the total export sales of soybeans in the United States in 2001 / 02 has reached 29.92 million tons, 8% higher than that of last year's 27.74 million tons; the cumulative shipment is 27.9375 million tons, 8% higher than that of the same period last year's 25.8287 million tons At present, the U.S Department of Agriculture estimates that the total soybean export volume in 2001 / 02 is 28.44 million tons, which is only 500000 tons less than the shipment volume It is four weeks before the end of this year It seems that there is no problem In addition, as of July 18, China purchased 4.5268 million tons of U.S soybeans, a decrease of 22% over the same period last year 4.4848 million tons have been shipped and 42 thousand tons are to be shipped 2 Others: according to the report of the U.S Department of agriculture in July, the output of 2001 / 02 increased by 3.61 million tons, the crushing increased by 1.75 million tons, the export increased by 1.23 million tons, the total consumption increased by 2.23 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 1.02 million tons; in 2002 / 03, the output decreased by 0.83 million tons to 77.84 million tons, the crushing volume was stable, and the export decreased by 2.45 million tons, which led to the increase of inventory The decrease of U.S soybean export volume should be in line with that of South America The increase in output has much to do with it In addition, the inventory consumption ratio of the United States in the years of 00 / 01, 01 / 02 and 02 / 03 was 8.84%, 7.16% and 8.08%, respectively 2 In South America, affected by the economic crisis and currency devaluation, the soybean export volume of Argentina and Brazil decreased, and the inventory increased accordingly South American soybean stocks are expected to be 4 million tons higher in July than last year, 3 million tons higher in August and 6 million tons higher in March next year 2 According to the July report of the U.S Department of agriculture, the soybean production of Argentina and Brazil in 2002 / 03 will reach 30 million tons and 47 million tons respectively We believe that the USDA report is acceptable for Brazil's soybean yield increase, but may be conservative for Argentina's soybean yield increase Due to the sharp rise in the price of soybeans in the United States and the sharp depreciation of the peso, Argentine farmers are bound to increase the planting area of low input soybeans According to the Ministry of agriculture of Argentina on July 18, soybean production is expected to reach 34 million tons in 2002 / 03 In addition, since the beginning of October, new soybeans will be planted in South America Farmers need to buy seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and other means of production Considering the recent collapse of meipan and the fact that it does not collide with new soybeans in China and the United States, it is estimated that the time has come to sell soybeans 3 Has the international soybean market entered the bull market? In the early stage, many analysts believed that the global soybean market has entered the bull market In this regard, we believe that it is too early to confirm that the global soybean market has entered the bull market The reasons are as follows: 1 In the early stage, the soaring market in the United States was mainly caused by the weather, the poor export of South America, the reduction of soybean planting area in the United States and the reduction of inventory However, from the perspective of global soybean supply and demand balance, the basic balance of supply and demand does not have the conditions to turn into a bull market - that is, supply is in short supply! 2 The supply of soybeans in the United States is indeed tight, and the export is strong due to the crisis in South America The inventory consumption ratio remains at a low level, which supports the high price of soybeans in the United States In addition, the devaluation of the US dollar also gives strong support to the US soybean spot price However, at present, the global soybean stocks are mainly in South America The global soybean production pattern is about to undergo profound changes The total soybean production in South America will surpass that in the United States for the first time So, as the discoverer of global soybean price, can CBOT focus on the domestic soybean situation in the United States? 3 In the July report of the U.S Department of agriculture, Brazil and Argentina still slightly increased their soybean exports, which is quite different from the reality The USDA takes pains to distort the facts, why? ——In order to promote the export of domestic soybeans, for the export price of soybeans higher! Those who have long focused on the CBOT market know that the accuracy of USDA reports is discounted at some point Therefore, we believe that the sharp rise of US market in the early stage is mainly due to the blocked trade channels, speculation weather and other reasons The global soybean supply and demand relationship is still in a balanced and neutral stage, and it is too early to recognize the arrival of the bull market On July 23, a shower in the Midwest of the United States led to a sharp drop in US market On that day, the contract fell to 535.4 cents, or 29 cents, from 564.4 on November; on 25, 26 and 29, it fell sharply, at a minimum, to 500 cents The deficiency of the foundation of the early speculation can be seen from this 4 The main fundamental factors determining the recent trend of US market 1 Weather factors: with the growth of us soybeans entering the critical growth month, the weather situation in the US will become the decisive factor determining the recent price trend Although the weather in the United States has been dry since the end of June, the rainfall since last week has alleviated the drought to some extent The final result depends on the actual rainfall 2 Soybean planting area and yield in the United States: weather will determine the planting area and yield of soybean in the United States this year At present, the market forecasts soybean yield are different In the near future, the market will focus on the USDA supply and demand report to be released on August 12, when USDA will forecast the soybean yield per mu and yield for the first time 3 Soybean export and sales in the United States: in the week of July 25, the detected volume of soybean export in the United States was 13.7 million bushels, higher than the market expectation Up to now, the accumulated detected volume is 1.027 billion bushels, higher than 962 million bushels in the same period of last year The Ministry of agriculture predicted that the export volume of soybean in the United States in 2001-02 was 1.045 billion bushels, an increase of 45 million bushels At present, an average of 4.5 million bushels of testing per week can reach the number predicted by the Ministry of agriculture Market participants predicted that the number of U.S soybean exports in 01-02 would reach 1076 million bushels, higher than the number predicted by the Ministry of agriculture However, we should see that one of the main reasons for the strong export sales of us soybeans this year is the sluggish of South American soybeans due to the domestic financial turmoil In addition, the decline of the US dollar caused by the US economic downturn has also contributed to the increase of export sales It is expected that with the improvement of the situation in South America and the approaching of planting period, the quantity and progress of soybean sales will be greatly accelerated, which will lead to the weakening of the competitiveness of soybean export in the United States Therefore, it is predicted that American soybean export will decrease in 2002-03 4 Soybean production and sales in South America: at present, the export and sales of South America's soybeans are still weak, but it is expected to be before the planting period of the new year