Analysis and Prospect of feed market in the first half of 2004 (Figure)

Introduction: Content abstract: in the first half of the year, China's feed production decreased year on year, in which pig, broiler and layer feed decreased to varying degrees However, aquatic products and ruminant feed have maintained a good momentum of development In the first half of the year, except for the increase of lysine and methionine exports, the exports of corn, soybean meal and feed fish meal were lower than the same period of last year; in terms of imports, except for the decrease of lysine, the others were higher than the same period of last year In the first half of the year, the price of feed products (compound feed for fattening pigs, meat and layers) in China decreased in the early stage The prices of corn, soybean meal, lysine and methionine fluctuated greatly Except that the average price of methionine was lower than that of the same period of last year, the prices of corn, soybean meal, feeding fish meal and lysine were higher than that of the same period of last year 1 In the first half of the year, the overall situation of feed production in China has declined From January to June, the total output of feed industrial products in China was 36.77 million tons, down 11% year on year, including 28.24 million tons of compound feed, down 8%; 7.45 million tons of concentrated feed, down 20%; 1.08 million tons of premixed feed, down 25% In the first half of the year, it is estimated that the output of pig compound feed will reach 10.63 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year; the output of layer compound feed will reach 8.4 million tons, an decrease of 11% year-on-year; the output of broiler compound feed will reach 5.02 million tons, a decrease of 25% year-on-year; the output of aquatic compound feed will reach 2.91 million tons, an increase of 12% year-on-year; the output of Ruminant Concentrate Supplement will reach In the concentrated feed, 4.1 million tons of pig concentrated feed, 12% lower than the same period last year, 1.8 million tons of layer concentrated feed, 20% lower than the same period last year, 1 million tons of broiler concentrated feed, 30% lower than the same period last year, 450000 tons of ruminant concentrated feed, 10% higher than the same period last year Among the additive premix, 590000 tons of pig premix, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, 200000 tons of layer premix, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, 130000 tons of broiler premix, a year-on-year decrease of 30% Due to the impact of avian influenza at the beginning of the year, feed consumption fell sharply from April to may, the output of some feed enterprises dropped by 20-30%, and the product volume of concentrated feed and premix dropped by 15-20% However, aquatic products and ruminant feed have maintained a good momentum of development 2 The import and export situation of feed raw materials from January to June 2004 1 The export of corn decreased In the first half of the year, the total export of corn in China was 1629600 tons, down 75.65% year on year The main export destinations include South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan Province and Indonesia The main export provinces of corn are Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, accounting for 96.17% of the total export volume of the country In the first half of this year, the total import of corn was 239.42 tons, an increase of 5674.77% over the same period of last year It is mainly imported from the United States (205.32 tons) and Peru (34.00 tons) The main import provinces of rice are Hunan, Shanghai and Liaoning, accounting for 91.24% of the total import volume of China 2 The export of soybean meal decreased The import increased from January to June this year, China's cumulative export of soybean meal was 289000 tons, a decrease of 25.63% compared with the same period of last year It was mainly exported to Japan (252100 tons), South Korea (12600 tons), Malaysia (10400 tons) and North Korea (9800 tons), accounting for 98.58% of China's total export of soybean meal The main export provinces of soybean meal are Hebei, Jiangsu, Liaoning and Shandong The export volume of soybean meal in the four provinces accounts for 98.52% of the export volume of soybean meal in China From January to June, China imported 16800 tons of soybean meal, an increase of 277.83 times over the same period of last year, mainly from India (16700 tons) The main provinces of soybean meal import are Hunan and Guangdong The soybean meal import volume of the two provinces accounts for 99.40% of the total soybean meal import volume of China 3 The import of feed fish meal increased, and the export decreased From January to June this year, the cumulative import of feed fish meal was 385700 tons, an increase of 28.55% over the same period of last year, including 241400 tons from Peru, 60100 tons from Chile, 30800 tons from the United States, an increase of 41.29%, 10.72% and 12.86% over the same period of last year, respectively The main provinces and cities that import feed fish meal are: Fujian, Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang and Liaoning The import of fish meal in the five provinces accounts for 82.94% of the total import From January to June, China exported 2368.68 tons of feed fish meal, a decrease of 19.31% over the same period last year, including 1113.02 tons to Taiwan, 527.6 tons to Malaysia and 344 tons to Japan The export provinces of feed fish meal are Shandong, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Henan and Fujian The export volume of fish meal in the five provinces accounts for 95.96% of the total export volume 4 The import of lysine decreased, and the export increased from January to June, China's total import of lysine was 30900 tons, down 17.05% from the same period of last year, mainly from Indonesia (9723.50 tons), the United States (7808.00 tons), South Korea (5450.35 tons), Thailand (4708.40 tons) The main import provinces and cities are: Guangdong, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan The import volume of the five provinces accounts for 74.74% of the total import volume From January to June, China exported 13700 tons of lysine, an increase of 2.34 times over the same period of last year, including 3398.80 tons to the United States, 2658.65 tons to the Netherlands, 2540.55 tons to Canada and 689.50 tons to Mexico The main export provinces and cities are Jilin, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong and Shanghai The export volume of the five provinces accounts for 90.67% of the total export volume 5 The import and export of methionine increased by 38600 tons from January to June, an increase of 4.94% over the same period of last year, mainly from Japan (10200 tons), the United States (10000 tons), Belgium (8252 tons), Germany (4432.5 tons) and France (4216 tons) The main import provinces and cities are Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu and Beijing The import volume of the five provinces accounts for 75.52% of the total import volume From January to June, China exported 212.66 tons of methionine, a year-on-year increase of 59.72%, of which 42.92 tons were exported to the United States, 30.00 tons to Taiwan Province and 24.15 tons to Vietnam The main export provinces and cities are Jiangsu, Shanghai, Anhui, Hubei and Beijing The export volume of the five provinces accounts for 72.13% of the total export volume 3 Analysis of feed price 1 The feed price of fattening pigs has increased significantly From January to March 2004, the price fluctuated, but since February, the price has continued to rise, from 1.74 yuan per kilogram (the same below) to 1.90 yuan in June, up 9.20% The average price of fattening pig feed in the first half of the year was 1.83 yuan, 18.00% higher than that in the same period of last year Source: price of meat and layer compound feed of animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of Ministry of agriculture From January to march in 2004, the price fluctuated From February, the price began to rise The price of meat and layer compound feed increased from 2.00 yuan and 1.82 yuan in February to 2.18 yuan and 1.95 yuan in June, respectively, with an increase of 9.00% and 7.14% respectively In the first half of the year, the average price of broiler feed was 2.10 yuan, 16.42% higher than the same period of last year; the average price of layer feed was 1.90 yuan, 15.05% higher than the same period of last year Source: the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture raised the price of feed products due to the rising price of feed raw materials Compared with the same period of last year, the average price of pig compound feed increased by 15-61% from January to June, that of layer compound increased by 10-25%, and that of broiler compound increased by 12-29% 2 Analysis on the price of feed raw materials corn: the market price fluctuates obviously, and the overall domestic price keeps rising In the first half of this year, the average price of corn production area and sales area is 1152 yuan / ton and 1425 yuan / ton respectively, 20.34% and 26.01% higher than the same period of last year On the whole, in the first quarter, due to the direct impact of avian influenza on livestock and poultry breeding and feed industry, the domestic corn price fell rapidly, especially the price in the sales area fell significantly In March, with the effective control and cancellation of the avian influenza epidemic, corn prices in production and marketing areas began to rise However, after the second quarter, due to the overall abundant supply of domestic corn market, the southern sales area has not fully recovered livestock and poultry breeding, and the impact of more port arrivals, the market price shows the characteristics of high-level oscillation Source: National Grain and Oil Information Center International market price: in the first half of the year, the price of corn in the international market increased significantly, showing a strong upward momentum After reaching the highest point in April, it began to oscillate downward As of June 30, the FOB price of yellow corn in the Gulf of Mexico No 3 was $114.95/ton, and the settlement price of Corn Varieties in Chicago futures in the latest delivery month was $104.16/ton, basically falling back to the price around January Soybean meal: the price fluctuated greatly, which was much higher than the average ex factory price of soybean meal in the first half of last year, which was 3013 yuan / ton, 45.42% higher than the same period of last year In the second quarter, the average ex factory price of soybean meal was 3087 yuan / ton, 44.47% higher than the same period last year Source: the soybean meal market of national grain and Oil Information Center was affected by avian influenza from the end of January to the beginning of February After a short period of price downturn, the price continued to rise By the end of March, it had reached a record high (3524.4 yuan / ton), with an increase of 36.80% Since March, influenced by the fluctuating decline of soybean price in the international market and the weak demand of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean meal market has entered a downward trend, lasting for nearly three months By the middle of June, the ex factory price of soybean meal had dropped to 2732.0 yuan / ton, a decrease of 22.48% Fish meal: the price rises first and then falls, which is higher than that of the first half of last year The average price of imported fish meal vehicle and ship board is 5857 yuan / ton, 13.96% higher than that of the same period of last year, and 5.83% lower than that of the same period of 2002 From the beginning of the year to the middle of February, the price of imported fish meal's vehicle and ship board basically kept at about 5450 yuan / ton, and then the price began to rise steadily, with a rise of 15.54% in the middle of April compared with the middle of February After that, the price began to decline By the middle of June, the price dropped to 5850 yuan / ton, a drop of 7.20% Source: according to the recent fishing situation in Peru, as of June 27, the total fishing volume in Peru was 4.9545 million tons, an increase of 63.43% over the same period last year (3.0316 million tons) Due to the large inventory of Peruvian ports, the selling psychology of merchants is large, and the recent drop of freight in Peru, the price of Peruvian fish meal is further reduced 3 Price analysis of lysine and methionine lysine: in the first half of the year, the import price of lysine fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of slow decline, rapid recovery, rapid decline and steady rise From the end of February to the end of March, due to the continuous rise of domestic soybean meal prices, the price of lysine rose; after that, under the conditions of improved supply, weak demand, market downturn and soybean meal price decline, the price fell back to the middle of May and began to stabilize, and rose slightly with the rise of soybean meal price Source: the average price of imported lysine in the first half of the year was 25.08 yuan per kilogram, 30.46% higher than that in the same period of last year Methionine (solid): the price of methionine also fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year At the end of February, it was 13.12% lower than that in late January, and 10.49% higher than that in March After that, it kept falling At present, the market demand for methionine has not increased significantly, so it is difficult for methionine prices to continue to rise In the first half of the year, the average price of solid methionine was 23.71 yuan per kilogram, 6.96% lower than that of the same period last year In the second quarter, the average price of solid methionine was 22.79 yuan per kilogram, 7.63% lower than that of the same period last year Source: Oriental egger information