Analysis and Prospect of domestic soybean oil market

Introduction: after the Spring Festival, the price of soybean oil in China rises and falls Before February 23, the price of soybean oil in all parts of the country showed an upward trend, but the increase was different The price of soybean oil in Northeast and North China rose between 40-120 yuan / ton; the price of soybean oil in Shandong, Anhui, Henan and other places rose between 20-80 yuan/ The soybean oil prices in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places have increased greatly, about 200-300 yuan / ton The soybean oil prices in Guangdong have increased dramatically, about 380-450 yuan / ton The main reasons for the rise of domestic soybean oil prices: during the Spring Festival, most domestic oil plants shut down for maintenance, and the shutdown rate of oil plants reached more than 50%, resulting in a temporary shortage of soybean oil supply and weak soybean oil market transactions Two In the last ten days of the month, with the significant increase in the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong and the resumption of production of major oil production enterprises in Shandong, Guangdong and other regions, the supply of soybean oil showed a recovery growth, but the demand for soybean oil did not show a significant increase, while the pace of recovery of production of oil plants in Northeast China was relatively slow, and the domestic soybean oil price showed a pattern of falling in the South and rising in the north The price of soybean oil in Northeast China continued to rise The price is generally around 6100-6200 yuan / ton, while the price in South China is rapidly falling to about 5750-5850 yuan / ton As of March 2, the ex factory price of soybean oil in Shandong is 5800-5850 yuan / ton, down 20-40 yuan / ton compared with the previous period The ex factory price of soybean oil in Guangdong is 5700-5760 yuan / ton, down 240-300 yuan/ Tons, Jiangsu and Zhejiang soybean oil factory quotation is 5820-5860 yuan / ton, a drop of about 100-130 yuan / ton, Henan soybean oil factory quotation is 5820-5860 yuan / ton, a drop of 40-80 yuan / ton In terms of the current situation of soybean oil market development, the domestic soybean oil price will fluctuate and fall down The main reasons are as follows: ggk 1 The supply of raw soybeans is more abundant When the domestic soybeans are nearly exhausted, the amount of imported soybeans is increasing According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, 1.29 million tons of soybeans were imported into China in January, and the arrival of soybeans in February increased significantly, with a total volume of 1.3-1.5 million tons It is estimated that from February to April, China will import more than 4 million tons of American soybeans to Hong Kong According to the report of China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Import and Export Corporation, at present, China has ordered about 8 million tons of South American soybeans with a shipment period from March to July, and the expected CIF premium of South American soybeans is 40-60 cents / bushel lower than that of American soybeans, about 15-22 us dollars / ton, that is, the comprehensive cost is 150-220 yuan / ton lower It can be seen that China's soybean supply will be quite abundant in the future, and the market pressure of soybean oil will gradually increase Ggk II The operating rate of oil plants has increased significantly, and the supply of soybean oil has increased During the Spring Festival, most of the oil processing enterprises in most parts of the country are in a state of shutdown At the end of the month, some domestic oil plants have resumed production Due to the sufficient supply of soybean raw materials, the supply of soybean oil will increase significantly with the sharp increase of the operating rate of domestic oil enterprises in the later period, which will depress the domestic soybean oil market price Ggk 3 The soybean oil market has entered into the off-season of consumption, and the market price is facing a decline Ggk is now the off-season of soybean oil consumption In addition, the price of soybean oil remains high, and the consumer market is shrinking again This kind of seasonal off-season of soybean oil consumption will last for a period of time before it can gradually return to the normal level The soybean oil market is weak due to lack of demand pull Ggk 4 The rotation of national storage oil makes the output of soybean oil increase Ggk will rotate the existing storage oil in order to maintain the high quality of the storage oil before the large amount of domestic soybean oil is listed and the imported soybean oil is about to be listed At present, China's oil reserve rotation work has begun Tens of thousands of tons of oil reserve have been put on the market, and the price is set at 5800 yuan / ton, which will impact the domestic soybean oil market Ggk 5 The sharp increase of soybean oil imports has a negative impact on the market According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in January, China's soybean oil imports reached 98897 tons, far higher than 1692.4 tons in the same period last year As a result of the strong domestic soybean oil price, the soybean oil imports increased According to a recent report from China grain, oil and food import and Export Corporation, soybean oil deliveries at Chinese ports are expected to reach 86000 tons in March In recent weeks, Chinese edible oil buyers have signed more soybean oil import contracts, most of which are between May and July, while a few are between April and August In the future, a large number of soybean oil arrivals may have a negative impact on the domestic edible oil market Ggk 6 The high yield of rapeseed will push the price of soybean oil down further Due to the increase of planting area and the improvement of varieties, the total yield of rapeseed in China in 2003 is expected to reach a record 13 million tons, about 25% higher than that of last year The production increase of nearly 3 million tons will effectively alleviate the contradiction of domestic raw material supply, ensure the effective supply of domestic oil, and also restrain the price rise of domestic soybean oil market Supply and demand of soybean oil market in the first half of the year ggk 2002 / 2003, the new supply of soybean oil in China was about 4.7 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons year on year The output of soybean oil in this year is expected to be 3.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 490000 tons; the output of imported soybean oil is expected to be 1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 630000 tons The annual consumption demand is expected to be 3.4 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons on a year-on-year basis; industrial and other consumption is expected to be 600000 tons The total consumption will reach a record high of 4 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 260000 tons The total supply of soybean oil is obviously surplus, which means that the price of soybean oil will have a large space to fall In late January, nine ministries and commissions including the State Planning Commission issued the "notice on the implementation of measures to further support the development of China's soybean industry", aiming to support soybean import, encourage soybean meal export and effectively control soybean oil import In the long run, this policy will further promote and develop China's soybean industry, help protect the whole domestic crushing industry, to a certain extent, inhibit the impact of low-cost imported soybean oil on the domestic market, so as to stabilize the domestic soybean oil price But in the short term, it has little effect on the price of soybean oil in China Ggk IX international soybean oil prices are rising, which supports the domestic soybean oil market price ggk At present, the price of South American crude soybean oil shipped to China's CNF rose from 528 US dollars / ton last month to 540-543 US dollars / ton, which makes it difficult for domestic manufacturers to use quotas to import soybean oil, and to a certain extent, supports the domestic soybean oil price Ggk to sum up, with the steady growth of soybean supply in the later period, the full recovery of oil production, the continuous increase of soybean oil supply, soybean oil consumption in the off-season and low-cost South American soybean's multiple factors Therefore, it is expected that in the first half of this year, without other important factors, the domestic soybean oil market price will step into the stage of falling and finishing At present, the price of domestic soybeans and imported soybeans will not fall too much Ggk (Information Center of Jilin Grain Bureau)