Analysis and Prospect of Domestic Soybean Meal Market Situation

Introduction: after the Spring Festival, the price of domestic soybean meal rises and falls frequently after the Spring Festival Before February 14, the price of soybean meal in all parts of the country increased by about 20 yuan / ton, which is generally higher than that before the Spring Festival The main reason for the increase is that most domestic oil plants shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival, and the shutdown rate of domestic oil plants is as high as 50% As a result, soybean meal supply is temporarily vacant and soybean meal trading is slow However, with the resumption of production of major oil and fat production enterprises in Shandong and Guangdong, the supply of soybean meal has recovered, but the demand for soybean meal has not increased significantly The price of soybean meal in the two places has declined to a certain extent As of February 20, the factory price of soybean meal in most areas of Shandong Province is between 2000-2020 yuan/ Tons, falling back to the price before the Spring Festival; due to the lack of soybean meal demand support, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong is under great pressure At the same time, a small amount of soybean meal has arrived at Guangdong port At present, there are 5000 tons of soybean meal inventory at Shenzhen port and 4000 tons of soybean meal inventory at Huangpu port The price of soybean meal drops slightly with each passing day As of the 20th day, the ex factory price of soybean meal in Guangdong is 2060-2080 yuan/ Tons, the actual transaction price is about 2050-2060 yuan / ton; due to the slow pace of oil processing enterprises in northeast Heilongjiang and Jilin regions to resume production, the soybean meal price has been rising steadily and slightly As of the 20th day, the factory quotation of soybean meal in Harbin and Mudanjiang regions in Heilongjiang Province is 1980-2030 yuan / ton, 20 yuan higher than that in the earlier stage/ Tons, the ex factory price of soybean meal of Beian and Jixian oil plants is 1940-1960 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period, the ex factory price of soybean meal in Nenjiang and Hegang areas is 1930-1970 yuan / ton, up 10-20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; the ex factory price of soybean meal in Changchun and Siping areas in Jilin Province is 2020-2060 yuan / ton, up 10-40 yuan / ton compared with the previous period As for the current situation of soybean meal market development, it is inevitable that the price of domestic soybean meal will fall in the short term The main factors are as follows: PDN I, more sufficient supply of raw soybean PDN 1 Domestic soybean: after the peak of spring transportation, the tension of railway transportation in Northeast China will be effectively alleviated The intensity and speed of soybean export in Heilongjiang will be significantly accelerated The soybean in the production area will enter the market in the sales area, and the situation of tight supply in the early stage will be eased PDN 2 Imported soybeans: according to the latest report of the national grain and oil information center, the imported soybeans delivered to the port of our country from February to April will reach 4.5 million tons, the import volume in February will be 1.4 million tons, and the monthly average import volume will be about 1.5-1.6 million tons Most of these soybeans are American soybeans March is the end of American market year and the beginning of South American market year Recently, AQSIQ has confirmed that China has cancelled the mandatory waiting time for the soybean import license to take effect With the GM Office of the Ministry of agriculture of China officially accepting the application for interim import certificate of Brazil GM soybeans on February 8, the newly produced South American soybeans will arrive in China smoothly, the domestic soybean supply in the future will be quite sufficient, and the market pressure of soybean meal will be greater Second, the demand for soybean meal is sharply reduced, and the seasonal fluctuation of market price is determined by the change of demand for soybean meal The Spring Festival is the peak of slaughter and the fishing period of aquaculture After the Spring Festival, the domestic feed breeding industry will temporarily enter the off-season, and the market demand for soybean meal will be significantly reduced According to the experience over the years, one month after the Spring Festival, the market demand for soybean meal will be reduced by about 30%, the contradiction of phased oversupply of soybean meal will appear, and the market price will inevitably face a decline Third, all oil plants will be started one after another, and soybean meal supply will increase sharply During the Spring Festival of PDN, most of the oil processing enterprises in most parts of the country are in a state of shutdown, and all oil plants in Heilongjiang Province will be shut down With the increase of soybean imports in the later period, the oil plants in all parts of the country will resume production at the end of February, and the supply of soybean meal will increase rapidly The situation that the supply of soybean meal exceeds the demand in the market is difficult to change, and the price of soybean meal will have a certain space for reduction PDN 4 The cancellation of the soybean meal railway construction fund will impact the southern soybean meal market At present, the market not only pays attention to the change of the soybean meal demand, but also the policy of canceling the soybean meal railway construction fund cannot be ignored At the end of January 2003, the State Planning Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the notice on the implementation of relevant measures to further support the development of China's soybean industry, aiming to encourage soybean import, soybean meal export and inhibit soybean oil import In addition, the document specifies the policy of exemption from soybean meal railway construction fund It is reported that nine departments, including the State Planning Commission, are now working on the detailed implementation rules of the policy The railway department also said that the document has been delivered to the Ministry in the near future, and it is expected that the policy will be issued in early March The exemption of soybean meal railway construction fund will reduce the transportation cost of soybean meal in Northeast China by an average of 30% - 52% The transportation cost of Northeast soybean meal will be much lower than that of soybean However, the price of soybean meal is generally high in southern oil plants of China, which will have a great impact on the southern market and provide a broad space for the price of soybean meal to fall In the long run, however, the domestic soybean meal price has a stable trend after adjustment The specific analysis is as follows: 1 This year, China's soybean meal export will continue to maintain a good momentum The neighboring countries and regions of China Import 8-10 million tons of soybean meal from South America every year Compared with South American soybean meal, China's soybean processing has the advantages of low cost, short transportation distance, fresh soybean meal, boat transportation to the surrounding countries and regional ports Relying on our advantages and in line with the policy of encouraging soybean meal export, China's soybean meal export will continue to maintain a good momentum of development this year, and support the price of domestic soybean meal According to the national grain and oil information center, the export of soybean meal will continue to grow in 2003, reaching the level of 1.2 million tons The continuous increase of soybean meal export will effectively alleviate the sales pressure of domestic soybean meal In recent years, China's breeding industry has been restricted by domestic demand and international technical barrier measures, and the growth rate of domestic soybean meal demand has slowed down This situation is not expected to change fundamentally in 2003 According to the national grain and oil information center, in 2002 / 03, the new supply of soybean meal in China will reach 17.25 million tons, an increase of 2.03 million tons on a year-on-year basis, and the consumption of aquaculture feed will reach 15.2 million tons The overall supply and demand of domestic soybean meal is basically balanced, and the supply is slightly greater than the demand, which shows that the overall trend of soybean meal price will still be determined by the domestic demand in 2003 According to the analysis of experts from the State Grain and oil information center, the price of domestic corn will go up from April to June this year, and the price of wheat will be in a stable state The price of corn and wheat, which are substitutes for soybean meal, will increase the cost of many domestic enterprises The continuous decline of soybean meal price will undoubtedly attract the attention of many domestic feed enterprises, and the demand may shift to soybean meal, so as to promote the market price of soybean meal to a certain extent In addition, the soybean oil quota will increase to 2.618 million tons in 2003, more than three times of the soybean oil import in 2002 The possibility of soybean oil falling in the later period in China is increasing, which is conducive to the stabilization of soybean meal price PDN IV the impact of soybean meal futures market on spot price; at the beginning of the year, the domestic soybean meal futures trading rules were changed, and the delivery warehouse of soybean meal was transferred from Dalian to East China, at the same time, the transaction fee was reduced In recent years, the oil industry in East China has developed rapidly, and the soybean meal production has developed rapidly, which has replaced Northeast China as the largest soybean meal production base The consumption of soybean meal has also grown steadily, and the spot trade is very developed The centralized delivery of soybean meal futures in East China is conducive to truly reflecting the price trend of the spot market and forming the benchmark price of soybean meal in China The revised contract will To keep the soybean meal futures price linked with the imported soybean price, truly reflect the supply and demand of soybean and soybean meal in the international market, and reduce the fluctuation range of spot price PDN can see from the above analysis that in the short term, the domestic soybean meal market will continue to move downward due to factors such as sufficient supply of raw materials, increase of soybean meal output and weak demand In the long run, factors supporting the stable domestic soybean meal price will play a role, which will ensure that there will be no downturn in soybean meal price this year China has entered WTO With the improvement of the integration of domestic soybean meal market and international market, we should pay close attention to the international market Pdn