Analysis and prediction of animal husbandry in the first half of Chongqing

Introduction: ■ Wen / Xue Jichun and Xiao Ying from Chongqing Agricultural Bureau in the first half of this year, the livestock production in Chongqing has been on the rise At the beginning of the year, affected by the highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in some provinces and regions in China, the poultry production in Chongqing was impacted to some extent, which brought some negative effects on the animal husbandry economy However, since March, with the phased victory in the prevention and control of avian influenza in China, poultry industry began to resume development, which led to the continuous improvement of animal husbandry economy 1、 In the first quarter, except for the decline of poultry stock and export, other major production indicators in Chongqing increased in an all-round way By the second quarter, poultry production recovered, and other major production indicators continued to grow According to our survey and statistics of some districts and counties (cities), it is estimated that by the end of this quarter, 16.567 million pigs will be on hand, 8.965 million will be on hand, 0.3% and 4.2% higher than the same period of last year respectively, and 1.358 million sows will be on hand, slightly higher than the same period of last year 1.2%; 1.767 million cattle on hand, 178000 on hand, up 2.2% and 7.9% respectively from the same period last year; 4.077 million goats on hand, 1.421 million on hand, up 18.9% and 21.0% respectively from the same period last year; 55.109 million poultry on hand, 82.524 million on hand, up 6.8% and 8.2% respectively from the same period last year; 8.702 million rabbits, 4.989 million on hand, up 11.0% and 18.0% respectively from the same period last year 6%; the total output of meat is 803000 tons, an increase of 5.7% over the same period last year, including 627000 tons of pork, 20000 tons of beef, 17000 tons of mutton, 132000 tons of poultry and 7000 tons of rabbit, an increase of 2.0%, 5.2%, 30.8%, 24.5% and 16.7% over the same period last year respectively; the output of milk is 49000 tons, an increase of 8.9% over the same period last year, and the output of eggs is 148000 tons, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year; the output value of animal husbandry is expected to reach 9 billion yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last year Last year, it increased by about 1.2 billion yuan, or 15.4% 2、 In the first half of this year, the price of main livestock products continued to be strong, and the price of poultry and poultry products also came out of the dilemma from the fall in the first quarter due to the impact of avian influenza, and now it has fully recovered The prices of pigs and pork rose again in late May The price of main feedstuff materials was basically maintained at the end of the first quarter, among which the price of soybean meal decreased significantly At present, the price of corn is maintained at about 1450 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, down 22.2-16.7%, and the price ratio of grain to pig is maintained above 5.6:1, and the overall livestock and poultry feeding benefit is still stable and rising （1） According to the statistics of the data at present, the piglets in Chongqing are 8.0-14.0 yuan per kilogram, among which the average price of "yangsanyuan" and PIC piglets is 14.0 yuan per kilogram, 8.02 yuan in the first half of the year, up 16% year on year, 7.2-8.2 yuan per kilogram, 6.46 yuan in the first half of the year, up 23.0% year on year Among them, the average pig is about 7.2 yuan per kilogram, "Yang Sanyuan" and PIC pig is about 8.2 yuan per kilogram In the second quarter of previous years, due to the influence of the off-season of consumption, the price of pigs all fell But this year, it is not the same The price of piglets and pigs has been high Especially in the beginning of June, the price of pigs continued to rise, which led to the rise of market pork price At present, the price of pig lean meat in the market remains between 17.5-18.0 yuan per kilogram, with a month on month increase of about 12% The rising price of piglets and pigs has increased the economic benefits of farmers' pig raising, and promoted the enthusiasm of producers to continue to rise According to the actual situation of production, the scale of pig farm is calculated by the weight of 90 kg At present, the direct production cost of each high-quality finishing pig is 483.50 yuan Including depreciation of 14.00 yuan, labor cost of 11.50 yuan, medicine cost of 11.00 yuan, water and electricity of 4.00 yuan, material consumption of 1.50 yuan, other 4.50 yuan, feed cost of 437.00 yuan, pig sales income of 738.00 yuan, head profit of 254.50 yuan Because of not considering depreciation and labor costs, farmers should have a higher profit level, which is expected to reach 250-280 yuan / head The profit level of each pig is about 150 yuan （2） In recent years, the development of beef cattle in Chongqing is relatively fast Since 1999, it has shown double-digit growth for four consecutive years, and it is still on the rise in the first half of this year The reasons are as follows: first, the market demand for beef is high, but overall, the absolute value of beef production in Chongqing is relatively low in meat production, and there is still a large space for development; second, the market price of beef continues to be strong, and the market price of beef has been kept at about 14.00 yuan per kilogram in the first half of this year, a slight increase of 3-4% compared with last year; third, the price of beef cattle raised by farmers is relatively stable Profit margin At present, the short-term fattening method is the main way for farmers to raise beef cattle In recent years, the special beef cattle fattening gradually appears From the perspective of efficiency, for each beef cattle raised, if the weight is 300 kg, the profit can be 300-500 yuan, and the profit of special beef cattle can be more than 800 yuan In addition, beef cattle fattening is mainly based on grass feed, which consumes less food It can greatly use local green feed and straw feed resources, reduce the dependence on food feed, so farmers have a high enthusiasm At present, it has become a hot spot in the development of rural animal husbandry economy in Chongqing However, in the first half of the year, the growth rate of beef cattle slowed down The main reasons are: first, due to the large investment in the early stage of raising beef cattle, about 1000 yuan is needed to invest in a shelf cow, which is hard for farmers in poor mountainous areas to bear; second, due to the increase of demand for beef in the market, especially in the market outside the city where there is little pollution, some farmers sell beef cattle in advance or even sell them out due to short-term profit-making behavior It is difficult for the basic cows to make up the herds and the production cycle of beef cattle is long Therefore, there may be a trend of slow development of beef cattle （3） Mutton goat production is an important industry for the development of animal husbandry economy in Chongqing mountainous area In the poor mountainous area, its contribution to animal husbandry economy is no less than that of pig industry From the development of the first half of the year, the meat goat continued the momentum of rapid development, especially the Boer goat used for crossbreeding and improvement efforts further increased, Kaixian County, Yunyang, Fengjie and other goat production counties have a rapid development momentum, only Kaixian county has more than 30000 sheep In terms of goat production, Chongqing focuses on the promotion of the production mode with the core of "six modernizations, one matching and one combination" (variety improvement, enclosure standardization, epidemic prevention program, scientific feeding, standardized management, large-scale farmers, supporting grass and sheep breeding, combined with the construction of biogas digester), which not only effectively solves the problems of ecological environment protection, but also improves the home environment of farmers, providing Clean energy, at the same time, has greatly improved the sheep raising efficiency of farmers According to the base point survey, the current goat price per kilogram is 6.2-7.0 yuan, an increase of about 7% over the same period last year According to the forage based feeding mode of farmers, the profit of each live sheep is about 80 yuan, and the income of farmers is about 4000 yuan based on the annual output of 20 live sheep （4） In the first quarter, the poultry industry in Chongqing was affected by the impact of the highly pathogenic avian epidemic, and the stock and export of poultry decreased to different degrees compared with the same period last year After March, the national prevention and control work has achieved stage success, and the degree of impact has gradually eased According to the basis point survey, market prices have fully recovered and increased over the same period last year The average price of broilers raised on a large scale is about 10 yuan per kilogram The average price of local broilers is up to 14.00-15.00 yuan per kilogram The average price of white skin eggs is about 6 yuan per kilogram The average price of rural local eggs is about 11.00 yuan per kilogram, 3.5%, 7.6%, 7.1% and 2.8% higher than that of the same period last year, respectively Each duck is 1.2-1.3 yuan, each broiler is 1.30-1.50 yuan, and each native broiler is 2.5 yuan, which has fully recovered to the normal level Farmers can earn 8.00-10.00 yuan per layer and 3.00 yuan per broiler The recovery of market price stimulates farmers' enthusiasm for breeding According to the survey of Yongchuan southwest bird and seedling market in Chongqing, since its opening in early April, the daily trading volume has increased from tens of thousands to more than 200000 at present, with the highest daily trading volume reaching more than 300000 （5） Meat rabbit meat rabbit showed a sustained development trend Meat rabbit, as a kind of herbivorous animal, plays an important role in the animal husbandry economy of agricultural areas because of its low food consumption, small land occupation and short marketing cycle Chongqing Jiangjin, Bishan, Tongliang, Yongchuan and other four cities (counties) concentrated more than 60% of the city's meat rabbit production In recent years, the enthusiasm of developing meat rabbit in mountainous areas and reservoir areas is increasing According to the basic point survey, for every 1.5kg meat rabbit raised by farmers, the profit is about 5 yuan, 60% higher than that of the same period last year, which stimulates the enthusiasm of farmers in breeding （6） Dairy production in Chongqing started in the second half of last year, from the sustained high growth in previous years to a stable development trend The reasons are as follows: first, due to the large investment required for the development of dairy cattle, at present, for every good breed of dairy cattle purchased, it costs about 10000 yuan to buy only cattle, and it is difficult to count the continuous high growth of the number of good breed cattle; second, due to the fierce competition in the dairy market, the products of dairy processing enterprises in Chongqing are mainly raw milk, which is limited by shelf life and transportation radius, and most of the sales are in this city Due to the impact of foreign dairy products on the market, the amount of milk collected by local enterprises is unlikely to increase significantly, which limits the development of local dairy industry 3、 The first reason for the price fluctuation of pigs and pork is the lagging influence of SARS on the animal husbandry economy last year During the "SARS" last year, the whole country was in a state of relative regional blockade, and the circulation of people and commodities was seriously blocked Chongqing, like other parts of the country, was difficult to market and sell the main livestock products, and the price of pork fell sharply, which affected piglet production During the "SARS" period, it was difficult to sell the piglets at the lowest price of 3.00 yuan per kilogram in Chongqing Many farmers lost confidence in pig raising, a large number of sows were slaughtered, the sows' stock decreased by 3-8%, and the decline of individual towns was as high as 22% Although the production and storage of sows recovered after SARS, the recovery was gradual In the first half of this year, although the number of sows in Chongqing increased by 1.2% compared with the same period of last year, a considerable part of them were reserve sows Therefore, in the face of the sudden rise in pig prices, Luoyang pig prices, pig shortage Second, the domestic pork market demand increased On the one hand, last year's "W" disease and "SARS" epidemic greatly damaged the vitality of the pig industry However, just before the industry recovered, there was an outbreak of "bird flu" this spring, and consumers turned to consume pork significantly After last year's "SARS" epidemic, sows that had been stocked had not yet been put into production, and the supply of pork was tight, which led to the shortage of pork in the market and the rising price With the development of urbanization, 40% of the main rural labor force are now abandoned to work in the city These used to be the main pig producers in the countryside, but now they have become the incremental consumers of urban pork consumption Therefore, with the expansion of urban scale and the increase of urban population, the consumption of pork is also increasing On the other hand, pig sales outside the market increased Due to the large pollution of pig industry to the city, large-scale breeding is limited in large and medium-sized cities A large number of large-scale pig farms, which were originally the "vegetable basket" base of the city, have been included in the scope of demolition, and the large-scale pig industry has been strictly controlled The reduction of these large-scale pig farms has a very obvious impact on the total market supply The pattern of pig production and marketing will become more and more obvious with the central and western regions as the main production areas, the eastern and coastal regions as the main sales areas Pork cost