Analysis and influencing factors of pig price trend in July 2013

June 2013, China's pig market can be said to be up trend, although in the consumption off-season, but due to various market factors, pig prices rose, since June, the national pork prices have rebounded for three consecutive weeks, triggering the market for a new round of pig prices rise concerns, then the July pig market is now rising against the trend, or is it a phased recovery, will not continue?znN
According to relevant data, the price trend of pigs in July may be the first half of a narrow swing, the magnitude is not obvious, the second half of the pig price shsameSo what factors are causing the price of pigs to fall?znN
1, from the money supply point of view, this year's M2 growth target is 13%, the current M2 growth rate of 16%, the growth rate of money will be in the control of financial risks and governance of inflation expectations in the context of declineM2 growth is expected to fall to 13.7% by the end of the year and M1 growth to 10.3%This has led to a weak overall price increase base for society as a whole, including pork, other consumer goods and services, which is unlikely to sustain the year-on-year upward trend for a long timeznN
2, the national reserve meat will affect the price of porkFrozen meat storage was the main reason for the rise in pig prices in JulyIn April and June, the price of live pigs has risen significantly since the State Council approved the start of frozen meat storageHowever, frozen meat reserves can not fundamentally solve the current contradiction between pork supply and demand, but to a large extent to alleviate excessive fluctuations in pig prices play a certain stabilizing roleThe national reserve meat must be released in 4-6 months, according to this calculation, during the August-October period, the state must be this year's two storage of frozen pork on the market, the amount of delivery will also have an impact on pork prices znN
　　3, at present, China's sow storage column ratio is relatively high, relatively sufficient production capacity The normal, scientific sow storage column ratio is 9%-10%, but the average sow deposit ratio in China is more than 13%, and the sow stock ratio in Sichuan Province in May is 14.29% Such a high sow stock ratio will lead to an increase in fattening pigs, resulting in an increase in the number of out-of-stock In the absence of a major outbreak, pork relatively overcapacity has become a certainty, in the coming period and even in the second half of the pork prices are difficult to continue to rise In addition, with downstream demand affected by the slowdown in food and beverage consumption since the end of 2012 and H7N9, the rise in pig prices is facing greater resistance znN
　　Considering the impact of the low pig prices, driven by the sharp drop in pig prices, a large number of pig-like pigs weighing about 200 kg are likely to be concentrated in mid-to-late July The speed and magnitude of the decline in pig storage may have an impact on pig prices and will affect the speed and magnitude of the recovery in pig prices in the second half of 2013 znN
　　4, the end consumer market weakened, no favorable situation to support upstream live pig prices Affected by the hot weather, meat consumption has weakened, in addition, students have been on holiday, collective consumption weakened, July and August no obvious holidays to stimulate pig consumption The end-consumer market has fallen significantly znN
　　5, feed raw material costs rise and fall difficult to predict China's agricultural products because of their own characteristics, the price transmission speed is faster, the cost of feed raw materials directly lead to feed raw materials-based products (pigs, poultry) product prices of market changes, and has a certain amplification effect According to China pig network monitoring, the recent corn, soybean meal and other raw materials prices appear to show signs of stabilization, soybean meal today, the average transaction price of 3870 yuan / ton, up 0.52% from yesterday, corn prices in the northeast production area 2150 yuan / ton, the southern corn purchase price of about 2460, high, pig breeding costs will inevitably rise, which may lead to a decline in the level of profit of livestock and poultry farming industry Thus, in the case of the price of pigs unchanged, the ratio of pig grain will quickly decline back to the loss state The change of feed raw material price directly leads to the fluctuation of downstream product price znN
　　6, pig grain ratio shock down According to the monitoring, the ratio of pig grain in June 2013 was 5.94:1, up 0.50, or 9.19 percent, from May It rose 0.46 percent, or 8.36 percent, from June According to market research, in June pig out of the column loss of 15.8 yuan (out of the column pig weight of 60 kg), with the local feed prices, as well as the increase in piglet costs, for the purchase of pig letnort breeding is not profitable, southern breeding is still at the break-even point "struggle", pig market is still faltering to maintain znN
　　Forecast: znN can be seen from the above factors, pork prices, affecting the future pig farming industry and macroeconomic development In July, China's pig market showed a bottoming up momentum, mainly affected by national policies, frozen meat storage and local pig storage column, so that the July pig began to warm up By the cost increase, seasonal consumption off-season, epidemic frequency and other factors, the next January, China's pig market will show a volatile stability, prices slightly down trend China's pig-breeding network hopes that the vast number of farmers continue to do a good job of breeding management, timely adjustment of the structure of the column, pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation and market changes, timely column znN in June 2013, China's pig market can be said to be up trend, although in the consumption off-season, but due to various market factors, pig prices rose, since June, the national pork prices rebounded for three consecutive weeks, triggering the market for a new round of pig price selling concerns, then july pig market is the current upward trend, or is it a phased recovery, will not continue? znN
　　According to relevant data, the price trend of pigs in July may be the first half of a narrow swing, the magnitude is not obvious, the second half of the pig price shsame So what factors are causing the price of pigs to fall? znN
　　1, from the money supply point of view, this year's M2 growth target is 13%, the current M2 growth rate of 16%, the growth rate of money will be in the control of financial risks and governance of inflation expectations in the context of decline M2 growth is expected to fall to 13.7% by the end of the year and M1 growth to 10.3% This has led to a weak overall price increase base for society as a whole, including pork, other consumer goods and services, which is unlikely to sustain the year-on-year upward trend for a long time znN
　　2, the national reserve meat will affect the price of pork Frozen meat storage was the main reason for the rise in pig prices in July In April and June, the price of live pigs has risen significantly since the State Council approved the start of frozen meat storage However, frozen meat reserves can not fundamentally solve the current contradiction between pork supply and demand, but to a large extent to alleviate excessive fluctuations in pig prices play a certain stabilizing role The national reserve meat must be released in 4-6 months, according to this calculation, during the August-October period, the state must be this year's two storage of frozen pork on the market, the amount of delivery will also have an impact on pork prices znN
　　3, at present, China's sow storage column ratio is relatively high, relatively sufficient production capacity The normal, scientific sow storage column ratio is 9%-10%, but the average sow deposit ratio in China is more than 13%, and the sow stock ratio in Sichuan Province in May is 14.29% Such a high sow stock ratio will lead to an increase in fattening pigs, resulting in an increase in the number of out-of-stock In the absence of a major outbreak, pork relatively overcapacity has become a certainty, in the coming period and even in the second half of the pork prices are difficult to continue to rise In addition, with downstream demand affected by the slowdown in food and beverage consumption since the end of 2012 and H7N9, the rise in pig prices is facing greater resistance znN
　　Considering the impact of the low pig prices, driven by the sharp drop in pig prices, a large number of pig-like pigs weighing about 200 kg are likely to be concentrated in mid-to-late July The speed and magnitude of the decline in pig storage may have an impact on pig prices and will affect the speed and magnitude of the recovery in pig prices in the second half of 2013 znN
　　4, the end consumer market weakened, no favorable situation to support upstream live pig prices Affected by the hot weather, meat consumption has weakened, in addition, students have been on holiday, collective consumption weakened, July and August no obvious holidays to stimulate pig consumption The end-consumer market has fallen significantly znN
　　5, feed raw material costs rise and fall difficult to predict China's agricultural products because of their own characteristics, the price transmission speed is faster, the cost of feed raw materials directly lead to feed raw materials-based products (pigs, poultry) product prices of market changes, and has a certain amplification effect According to China pig network monitoring, the recent corn, soybean meal and other raw materials prices appear to show signs of stabilization, soybean meal today, the average transaction price of 3870 yuan / ton, up 0.52% from yesterday, corn prices in the northeast production area 2150 yuan / ton, the southern corn purchase price of about 2460, high, pig breeding costs will inevitably rise, which may lead to a decline in the level of profit of livestock and poultry farming industry Thus, in the case of the price of pigs unchanged, the ratio of pig grain will quickly decline back to the loss state The change of feed raw material price directly leads to the fluctuation of downstream product price znN
　　6, pig grain ratio shock down According to the monitoring, the ratio of pig grain in June 2013 was 5.94:1, up 0.50, or 9.19 percent, from May It rose 0.46 percent, or 8.36 percent, from June According to market research, in June pig out of the column loss of 15.8 yuan (out of the column pig weight of 60 kg), with the local feed prices, as well as the increase in piglet costs, for the purchase of pig letnort breeding is not profitable, southern breeding is still at the break-even point "struggle", pig market is still faltering to maintain znN
　　Forecast: znN can be seen from the above factors, pork prices, affecting the future pig farming industry and macroeconomic development In July, China's pig market showed a bottoming up momentum, mainly affected by national policies, frozen meat storage and local pig storage column, so that the July pig began to warm up By the cost increase, seasonal consumption off-season, epidemic frequency and other factors, the next January, China's pig market will show a volatile stability, prices slightly down trend China's pig-breeding network hopes that the vast number of farmers continue to do a good job of breeding management, timely adjustment of the structure of the column, pay attention to the development of the epidemic situation and market changes, timely column znN