Analysis and forecast of Tianjin corn market

Introduction: corn: in the face of the delivery pressure of the sold corn in the spring grain bidding fair of Longjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, the delivery pressure is concentrated in April to July In May, the corn price in Tianjin not only did not fall, but also walked out of the strong rising market At present, the purchase price of corn is 990 yuan / ton, and the wholesale price is 1000-1010 yuan / ton, which is 60-90 yuan / ton higher than the end of last month Analysis on the trend of corn market in the later stage: first, the local corn in Beijing and Tianjin is rare, and the market will be affected by the price of corn in Northeast China A large amount of corn has been consumed in the bidding fair and export, the inventory pressure has been reduced a lot, and the funds have been effectively recovered; after May, the spring planting in Northeast China is coming to an end, and farmers are no longer in an urgent mood to sell grain, and they will return to the normal mentality of selling corn The supply of corn in Beijing Tianjin region and even the whole country will depend on the northeast, the trend of corn market will be better, and the price will rise In February, April and may, the lagging influence of trading corn restrained the upward trend of corn market In recent years, more than 3 million tons of corn have been traded in various kinds of grain auction fairs held in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, etc the delivery period is before the end of July, and the pressure on the market will be released in June and July, which is the factor restraining the price rise of corn market Third, the impact of related varieties on the corn market (1) a large number of untreated "a, 506" grains will be sold in June The low price and sufficient supply will attract feed enterprises to continue to replace corn as feed materials and squeeze the corn market (2) the high market price of soybean meal will reduce the consumption of soybean meal and increase the use of corn in feed factories and many scattered farmers (3) the rapeseed production in China is not satisfactory this year, and the price of rapeseed meal will rise, which is also a good opportunity for the price of corn market to rise 4 The country's strong export has driven up the market price of corn China's export target of corn this year is 6.5 million tons Now the port corn stock is increasing, and the closing volume is increasing, indicating that the export force will increase soon Recently, the State Planning Commission issued the notice on the quotas of some local commodities, rice reserves and corn export plans in 2002, in which the export target of local corn reserves is 1452500 tons All major grain producing provinces will participate in corn export one after another In 2002, corn export maintained a strong momentum, which is a strong support for the domestic corn market price 5 The export price of corn in the United States rose, and China's corn export benefited The US climate and flood affected US corn planting, which led to a sharp rise in Chicago corn futures price, and the US corn export price also rose sharply, providing opportunities for China's corn export The number of countries seeking to import corn from China is increasing The regular customers of Chinese corn, South Korea, have accelerated the purchase of corn after stepping out of the shadow of foot-and-mouth disease in early May During this period, China exported 155000 tons of corn to South Korea, and the C & F price rose to 100.3-107 dollars / ton from April 97.99-99.79 dollars / ton Vi it is possible to reopen China's corn futures market, which will reduce the huge inventory and the pressure on the corn market after China's accession to the WTO It is reported that the corn futures market will be reopened and launched around the third quarter, integrating the futures market and the grain spot wholesale market in China, and jointly building a complete and multi-level market system in China, so that China's corn market will enter a healthy and orderly cycle as soon as possible Once this information becomes a fact, a part of high-quality corn in China will enter the corn futures warehouse to form a futures warehouse receipt, which will affect the corn spot market in China In conclusion, the trend of corn market in Tianjin will continue to rise slightly With the implementation of the export quota policy and the increase of the international corn price, there will be a rising market of corn price in China.