Analysis and forecast of soybean market in Tianjin

Introduction: soybean: since March, the market price of soybean has been rising In May, after Tianjin's soybean market price broke through the previous high point, it began to oscillate at a high level in the first and middle of the year The price of domestic soybean is 2100-2150 yuan / ton, and that of imported soybean is 2200 yuan / ton At the end of the month, there is an upward trend The current price is 2150-2200 yuan / ton for domestic soybeans and 2200-2250 yuan / ton for imported soybeans, 150-200 yuan / ton higher than the highest price in April Later analysis of soybean market: first, the available quantity of soybean is no more than one million tons, which supports the increase of soybean price According to relevant data of the national grain and oil information center, the soybean stock in Longjiang grain system is 500000-600000 tons; the imported soybean stock is within 300000 tons, and it is in the hands of crushing enterprises According to the current squeezing level, domestic soybean can be consumed for about 10-15 days The soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises in Beijing and Tianjin can only be used for about 10-20 days, all of which are the reasons for the strong and even rising soybean prices 2 Futures delivery of soybeans into the spot market to ease the tense situation of soybeans At present, the spot price of soybeans is at a high level of 2150-2200 yuan / ton 760000 tons of delivery soybeans in futures are used for inter period arbitrage in July or Dalian Commodity Exchange to prevent closing positions and avoid future market risks Driven by interests, a considerable part of delivery soybeans will go to the spot market 3 National macro-control, so that soybean imports will not rush in It is said that many imported soybeans from South America are being shipped to China, and some have even stopped at the anchorage in China China's General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and Quarantine has issued three batches of import licenses in a period of time, totaling about 23 (there are only four in Beijing and Tianjin of Hebei Province) Plus these import licenses are valid for 30-90 days after issuance In Beijing and Tianjin, the earliest time to use import license to relieve soybean tension is after the end of June The soybean import license is issued by stages, so that the imported soybean will not rush in On July 1, the implementation of the import genetically modified policy of the Ministry of health, together with the regulations of the Ministry of agriculture, will flexibly control the quantity of soybean imports to ensure the stable operation of the soybean market price in China, without any sudden drop 4 Weather factors affect soybean prices in domestic and international markets The sowing of soybean in Northeast China has been basically completed At present, the moisture content and weather change have no effect on the future market of soybean The reduction of rapeseed production in the South will further support the steady rise of soybean prices Weather changes in the United States will increase the price of soybeans in the United States, and will also increase the price of soybeans in the South American market The price of South American soybeans in June and July has gradually increased from 195 US dollars / ton to 216-218 US dollars / ton The rising international price has increased the cost of soybean import in China Based on many factors, it is expected that soybean prices will still surge higher in the first and middle of June With the use of soybean import license, futures soybean will gradually enter the spot market and other factors, the tense situation of soybean will be eased In the later stage, soybean prices should fall back steadily.