Analysis and forecast of international soybean market

OA show ('918 '); in recent years, there have been many opinions about the price trend of the international soybean market this year, so what will the international soybean market do in 2000? In my opinion, the international soybean market will have a large increase space in the first half of this year, and the price will continue to rise for a period of time Now I will make the following analysis on the following aspects: in the United States, the recovery of the economy has accelerated the demand for domestic soybeans, and the reduction of output will surely tighten the supply In terms of the recent price trend of CBOT soybeans, This has been proved It is expected that there will be a sharp rise in CBOT soybeans in the first half of this year South America: since Brazil and Argentina entered the seeding period in 1999, the continuous high temperature and drought weather has a great impact on soybean planting and growth If the weather conditions remain unchanged in February, it will cause a significant reduction in soybean production and supply China: according to the statistical data, in 1999 / 00, the soybean production in Heilongjiang's main production area decreased by nearly 1 / 3 Considering the inventory and other factors, the total supply was about 21.35 million tons From the domestic demand situation, the improvement of the economy led to the demand for soybean and soybean meal From the statistical data analysis, we can see that the demand in this year was about 23.78 million tons, so we can see the demand abroad The situation that domestic supply is less than demand remains unchanged, and the gap of 2.4 million tons will be made up by imports A large number of domestic imports will certainly drive up the international price, so it can be predicted that there will be a huge space for domestic soybean prices to rise in the first half of this year The total output of soybeans in the United States accounts for more than 50% of the world's total output, and the total output of soybeans in South America accounts for 1 / 3 of the world's total output The reduction of output in this region, and the recovery and recovery of the global economy will certainly lead to the rise of prices From the above basic analysis, it can be predicted that the international soybean price will rise substantially in the first half of this year In terms of the domestic market in the near future, the large influx of domestic long funds in the near future gives strong support to the market In terms of the form (September), I think the market is in the adjustment stage of three waves From the weekly chart, the market has turned over Recently, the continuous strengthening of CBOT prices in foreign market is not a simple technical rebound, I think it is a fundamental change In the near future, the recovery of domestic spot price also supports the domestic market It is expected that the future market will still be dominated by the rising trend, and there is still a large space for the price to rise China feed industry information network 566 (author:)