Analysis and forecast of feed market in the second half of the year

Introduction: according to the incomplete statistics of the national feed Work Office According to incomplete statistics from the national feed work office, the total output of feed products in China reached 39.6 million tons from January to June this year, up 4.4% year on year, of which the output of compound feed was 3.05 million tons, up 3.6% year on year; the output of concentrated feed was 7.95 million tons, up 9% year on year; the output of premixed feed was 1.6 million tons, up 3.2% year on year MTB then, what will be the situation of feed market output and price in the second half of the year? Interview with Mtb: Yang Zhenhai, director of the feed Department of the national feed office, we preliminarily predict that the total feed output in the second half of the year will increase by a large margin compared with that in the first half of the year, and the finished feed output in the whole year will be flat or increase compared with last year In the first half of the year, the feed output of MTB has not declined but increased compared with the same period of last year, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be larger than that in the first half of the year What is the situation of feed price? According to professionals, the rise and fall of feed price mainly depends on the consumption of meat, egg and milk of residents If the consumption of meat, egg and milk is high, it will drive the vigorous development of the breeding industry The water will rise naturally, and the price of feed will also rise However, in the first half of this year, due to the impact of SARS, the consumption demand of residents decreased, so it also affected the consumption demand for meat, egg and milk MTB interview: Kong Pingtao, director of information center of China Feed Industry Association, the market consumption of MTB has restricted the supply of meat, egg and milk for the whole animal husbandry The corresponding breeding enterprises, including the total amount of farmers' breeding, also affect the price supply, which makes the whole consumption of feed unlikely to rise significantly Similarly, the enterprise will increase its sales and competition, which determines the possibility or space of its price rise is very small MTB, then, is this a sign that the feed market in the second half of the year is calm and calm? Yang Zhenhai, director of feed Department of MTB national feed industry office, predicted that in the second half of the year, we are generally optimistic, but there are also some adverse factors For example, the price increase of raw materials is the most obvious thing this year Several raw materials are rising One is soybean meal, which we originally expected to rebound this year However, we didn't expect that the current market performance shows that the growth rate is particularly large In the first half of the year, the price of soybean meal in six months is one month In this case, it has brought some problems to our production Identified factors In addition to the price increase of soybean meal, the price of corn, fish meal and lysine in China's market also increased to some extent Take corn for example In the first half of this year, the average price of corn production area and sales area is 958 yuan / ton and 1130 yuan / ton respectively, which is 1.39% and 1.17% higher than the same period of last year After June, the price of lysine also rose in a straight line The price of imported lysine rose from 17.1 yuan / kg to 21.29 yuan / kg, while that of domestic lysine rose from 16.5 yuan / kg to 20.25 yuan / kg, with an increase of 24.5% and 22.73%, respectively MTB generally speaking, the price increase of raw materials will often lead to the price increase of finished products Will this substantial increase in the price of feed raw materials also affect the price of finished feed products in the second half of the year? MTB Yang Zhenhai: the price of feed raw materials has increased substantially, but the price of feed products has remained basically stable MTB is a strange thing Why is the price of feed raw materials rising, but the price of finished feed products still basically stable? MTB was originally due to the fierce competition in the feed industry Everyone was fighting a price war and wanted to attract customers at a low price, so they digested the price rise of raw materials themselves This is really in response to the old saying "snipe and clam compete and fisherman get profits" All the breeders checked their stools Besides that, I'm afraid the second reason is due to the progress of science and technology MTB Yang Zhenhai: for example, the formula without fish meal calories, amino acid balance, many research on nutritional parameters and so on have laid a good foundation for our application to produce the formula with the lowest calorie cost This technology will be applied in the production soon, and it will be able to digest various adverse factors According to the analysis of experts, MTB predicts that the price of pig feed will remain stable at 1.55 yuan / kg in the second half of this year; the price of layer feed should be stable at about 1.6 yuan / kg; due to the impact of export, the price of broiler feed is likely to drop slightly; while the price of aquatic feed is not volatile MTB